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Long cycle theory and international relations

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GoldsteinJoshua, “Long Cycles of Economic Growth and War: Toward a Synthetic Theory.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C. 09, 1984.
GoldsteinJoshua, “Kondratieff Waves as War Cycles,” International Studies Quarterly29 (121985).
GoldsteinJoshua, “Long Cycles in War and Economic Growth,” Ph.D. dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1986.

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Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 May 2009

Richard Rosecrance
Richard Rosecrance
Affiliation:
Walter S. Carpenter Professor of International and Comparative Politics at Cornell University.
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Type
Review Essays
Information
International Organization , Volume 41 , Issue 2 , Spring 1987 , pp. 283 - 301
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 1987

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References

1. The meaning of “secular” (that is, proceeding in one particular direction) is directly opposed to that of “cyclical.”

2. Bull, Hedley, The Anarchical Society: a Study of Order in World Politics (London:Google ScholarMacmillan, 1977); Waltz, Kenneth, Theory of International Politics (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1979)Google Scholar; Carr, E. H., The Twenty Years' Crisis (London: Macmillan, 1939)Google Scholar; Morgenthau, Hans, revised by Thompson, Kenneth W., Politics Among Nations (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1985)Google Scholar; Machiavelli, Niccolo, The Prince, a new translation with essays, Adams, Robert M., trans, and ed. (New York: Norton, 1977)Google Scholar; Dehio, Ludwig, The Precarious Balance (New York: Vintage, 1962)Google Scholar; Hinsley, F. H., Power and the Pursuit of Peace (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1964)Google Scholar.

3. Cobden, Richard, The Political Writings of Richard Cobden (London: Unwin, 1903)Google Scholar; Veblen, Thorstein, “The Passing of Nationalism,” in Ardzrooni, L., ed., Essays in Our Changing Order (New York: Viking, 1943)Google Scholar; Schumpeter, J., Imperialism and Social Classes, Sweezy, Paul, ed., Norden, Heinz, trans., (New York: Augustus M. Kelly, 1951)Google Scholar.

4. Sombart, Werner, Die Deutsche Volkswirtschaft im neunzehnten Jahrhundert, 3d ed. (Berlin: Bondi, 1913), pp. 368–76, 528Google Scholar; Deutsch, Karl and Eckstein, A., “National Industrialization and the Declining Share of the International Economic Sector, 1890–1959,” World Politics 13 (01 1961)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; McNeill, W. H., The Pursuit of Power (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982)Google Scholar; Schell, Jonathan, The Fate of the Earth (New York: Avon, 1982)Google Scholar.

5. Kondratieff, Nikolai, The Long Wave Cycle, new edition by Daniels, G. and Snyder, J. (New York: Richardson and Snyder, 1984)Google Scholar; Toynbee, Arnold J., A Study of History, vol. 9 (London: Oxford University Press, 1954)Google Scholar.

6. Modelski, George, Long Cycles in World Politics, Seattle, Wash., 1985 (University of Washington Press, forthcoming)Google Scholar.

7. Gilpin, Robert, War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

8. Goldstein, Joshua, “Long Cycles of Economic Growth and War: Toward a Synthetic Theory” (Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., 09 1984)Google Scholar; Goldstein, Joshua, “Kondratieff Waves as War Cycles,” International Studies Quarterly 29 (12 1985), pp. 411–444CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Goldstein, Joshua, “Long Cycles in War and Economic Growth,” vols. 1 and 2 (Ph.D. diss., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1986)Google Scholar.

9. Russett, Bruce, “Prosperity and Peace,” International Studies Quarterly 27 (1983), pp. 381–387CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Haas, Michael, Some Societal Correlates of International Political Behavior (Ph.D. diss., Stanford University, 1964)Google Scholar.

10. Morse, Edward L., Modernization and the Transformation of International Relations (New York: Free Press, Macmillan, 1976)Google Scholar.

11. A particular omission is Charles Doran's excellent work on the impact of changes in relative power upon war. But his research does not deal directly with the relationship to economic swings. Charles Doran and Parsons, W., “War and the Cycle of Relative Power,” American Political Science Review 74 (12 1980), pp. 947–965Google Scholar.

12. Kondratieff, , The Long Wave Cycle, p. 62Google Scholar.

13. Ibid., p. 103.

14. Day, R. B., “The Theory of Long Waves: Kondratieff, Trotsky, Mandel,” New Left Review 99 (09–10. 1976), pp. 67–82Google Scholar.

15. Schumpeter, J., Business Cycles, vols. 1 and 2 (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1939)Google Scholar, chaps. 6–7; Rostow, Walt W., “Kondratieff, Schumpeter and Kuznets: Trend Periods Revisited,” Journal of Economic History 25 (No. 4, 1975) pp. 719–753CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

16. Goldstein, “Long Cycles of Economic Growth and War.”

17. Rostow, “Kondratieff, Schumpeter and Kuznets.”

18. Rostow, “Kondratieff, Schumpeter and Kuznets”; Thompson, W. R. and Zuk, G., “War and the Kondratieff Long Wave,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 26 (1982), pp. 621–644CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

19. Ibid., p. 39.

20. George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics.

21 Here Thompson uses an alternative notation to Modelski's: with the first phase as global war, the second as world power, the third as delegitimation and fourth as deconcentration. See Thompson, W. R., ed., Contending Approaches to World System Analysis, (Beverly Hills: Sage), 1983Google Scholar.

22. Gilpin, Robert, War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981), p. 156CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

23. Ibid., p. 169.

24. Cipolla, Carlo, ed., The Economic Decline of Empires (London: Methuen, 1970), pp. 5–6Google Scholar.

25. Gilpin, , War and Change, p. 159Google Scholar.

26. Ibid., pp. 160, 165, 166, 165.

27. Goldstein, “Long Cycles of Economic Growth and War” and “Kondratieff Waves as War Cycles.”

28. Goldstein, , “Long Cycles of Economic Growth and War,” pp. 12, 13Google Scholar.

29. Goldstein, Joshua, “Long Cycles in War and Economic Growth,” vols. 1 and 2 (Ph.D. diss., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1986)Google Scholar and Wallerstein, ImmanuelThe Modern World System II, (New York: Academic Press, 1980)Google Scholar.

30. Goldstein, , “Long Cycles in War and Economic Growth,” vol. 2, chap. 10, p. 13Google Scholar.

31. For a fuller analysis, see Thompson, W. R., “Global War and the Dissynchronization of Hegemonic Power, Kondratieffs, and Long Cycles.” (Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., 09, 1984)Google Scholar.

32. Goldstein, , “Kondratieff Waves as War Cycles,” pp. 429, 433Google Scholar.

33. See Zollberg's, Aristide comments in Thompson, W. R., ed., Contending Approaches to World System Analysis (Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1983)Google Scholar.

34. Goldstein, , “Kondratieff Waves as War Cycles,” p. 415Google Scholar.

35. Ibid.

36. Rosecrance, Richard, The Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World (New York: Basic Books, 1986)Google Scholar.

37. Langer, W. L., The Diplomacy of Imperialism (New York: Knopf, 1950)Google Scholar.

38. Compare this situation with the findings of Choucri and North for the 1870–1914 period in which tariffs were high; Choucri, N. and North, R., Nations in Conflict (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman, 1975)Google Scholar.

39. The relationship between tariff increases and imperialism is overlooked in the otherwise excellent book by Doyle, Michael, Empires (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1986)Google Scholar.