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LA GEOMETRIA DELLO SPAZIO ELETTORALE IN ITALIA

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 July 2018

Luca Ricolfi

Introduzione

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Quante dimensioni sono necessarie per rappresentare le posizioni dei partiti italiani nello spazio elettorale? La classica rappresentazione dei partiti lungo un unico continuum, il cosiddetto asse sinistra-destra, è ancora attuale? E se non lo è, quali sono le dimensioni oggi pertinenti?

Negli ultimi cinquant'anni il problema della unidimensionalità dello spazio elettorale ha sempre avuto un certo rilievo perché, dopo gli studi pionieristici di Black, Arrow e Coombs sul rapporto fra preferenze individuali e regole di scelta sociale, l'assunto di unidimensionalità è diventato, per così dire, il certificato di garanzia dei sistemi democratici. Solo assumendo uno spazio elettorale unidimensionale l'adozione della regola della maggioranza non incappa nel «paradosso del voto» su cui per primi, verso la fine del ‘700, avevano attirato l'attenzione Jean-Charles de Borda (1781) e il Marchese di Condorcet (1785).

Summary

Summary

The subject of this essay is the dimensionality of electoral space in postwar Italy. The analysis rests on ecological data concerning general elections of the years 1953, 1963, 1972, 1983, 1992. The main results are three:

a) last elections (1992) show both a trend toward electoral space's simplification and a decreasing importance of left-right dimension;

b) geometrical relations between Italian parties in electoral space show three main clusters (status quo, traditional opposition and new opposition);

c) status quo parties are settled mostly in Southern Italy, traditional opposition parties in Central Italy, new opposition parties in Northern Italy.

As the relations between those three clusters cannot be mapped into a line, we can suppose that an analysis at micro level shows the existence of cyclical majorities (Condorcet and Arrows paradoxes). Some empirical evidence and a simulation exercise confirm the plausibility of that conjecture.

Type
RICERCHE
Information
Italian Political Science Review / Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica , Volume 23 , Issue 3 , December 1993 , pp. 433 - 474
Copyright
Copyright © Societ Italiana di Scienza Politica 

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