Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gxg78 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T14:03:04.327Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A demographic factor as a determinant of migration: what is the effect of sibship size on migration decisions?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 November 2019

Jianmei Zhao Open the ORCID record for Jianmei Zhao [Opens in a new window]  and
Hai Zhong
Jianmei Zhao*
Affiliation:
China Academy of Public Finance and Public Policy, Central University of Finance and Economics, 39 South College Road, Beijing 100081, China
Hai Zhong
Affiliation:
China Academy of Public Finance and Public Policy, Central University of Finance and Economics, 39 South College Road, Beijing 100081, China
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: jianmei@cufe.edu.cn
Get access

Abstract

Developing countries often lack an adequate social security system, and elderly parents rely heavily on their children for support. Aging populations and low-fertility rates are an emerging trend in developing countries. In this paper, we examine the effects of sibship size on individuals' internal migration decisions in China. We find that the number of siblings has a positive effect on individual migration decisions, but this effect is non-linear and marginally increasing. Second, we find that having brothers has a more significant effect on migration decisions than having sisters. Finally, although of different magnitudes, the effects are persistent across genders, Hukou status, and education levels.

Keywords

Demographic factordeterminantsmigration decisionssibship size

JEL classification

O15: Human Resources • Human Development • Income Distribution • Migration J61: Geographic Labor Mobility • Immigrant Workers J10: General
Type
Research Papers
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , Volume 85 , Issue 4 , December 2019 , pp. 321 - 345
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Angrist, J., Lavy, V. and Schlosser, A. (2010) Multiple experiments for the causal link between the quantity and quality of children. Journal of Labor Economics, 28(4), 773–824.Google Scholar
Antman, F. M. (2012) Elderly care and intrafamily resource allocation when children migrate. Journal of Human Resources, 47(2), 331–363.Google Scholar
Becker, G. (1960) An economic analysis of fertility. In: A conference of the Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research (ed.), Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pp. 209–240. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Becker, G. and Lewis, G. (1973) On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2), S279–S288.Google Scholar
Becker, G. and Tomes, N. (1976) Child endowments, and the quantity and quality of children. Journal of Political Economy, 84(4), S143–S162.Google Scholar
Bergaglio, M. (2008) Population growth in China: the basic characteristics of China's demographic transition. Available at: http://www.globalgeografia.it/temi/Population%20Growth%20in%20China.pdf.Google Scholar
Black, S., Devereux, P. and Salvanes, K. (2005) The more the merrier? The effect of family size and birth order on children's education. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(2), 669–700.Google Scholar
Borjas, G. (1999) The economic analysis of immigration. In Ashenfelter, O. and Card, D. (eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol. 3A, pp. 1697–1760. Amsterdam, Netherlands: North Holland Publishing Co.Google Scholar
Borjas, G. (2014) Immigration Economics. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Bratti, M., Fiore, S. and Mendola, M. (2017) Family size, sibling rivalry and migration: evidence from Mexico, IZA DP No. 10462.Google Scholar
Caceres-Delpiano, J. (2006) The impacts of family size on investment in child quality. Journal of Human Resources, 41(4), 738–754.Google Scholar
Cai, F., Giles, J. and Meng, X. (2006) How well do children insure parents against low retirement income? An analysis using survey data from urban China. Journal of Public Economics, 90(12), 229–255.Google Scholar
Cai, F. and Wang, M. (2006) Challenge facing China's economic growth in its aging but not affluent era. China & World Economy, 14(5), 20–31.Google Scholar
Chan, K. W. (2017) China, internal migration. In Ness, I. and Bellwood, P. (eds.), The Encyclopedia of Global Migration, pp. 128–129. New Jersey, USA: Blackwell Publishing.Google Scholar
CIA. (2015) The world factbook. Available at (accessed on March 15, 2016): https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook.Google Scholar
Connelly, R. and Maurer-fazio, M. (2016) Left behind, At-risk, and vulnerable elders in rural China. China Economic Review, 37, 140–153.Google Scholar
Ebenstein, A. (2010) The “missing girls” of China and the unintended consequences of the one child policy. The Journal of Human Resources, 45(1), 87–115.Google Scholar
Feng, Z., Liu, C., Guan, X. and Mor, V. (2012) China's rapidly aging population creates policy challenges in shaping a viable long-term care system. Health Affairs, 31(12), 2764–2773.Google Scholar
Giles, J. and Mu, R. (2007) Elderly parent health and the migration decisions of adult children: evidence from rural China. Demography, 44, 265–288.Google Scholar
Greenwood, M. (1975) Research on internal migration in the United States: a survey. Journal of Economic Literature, 13, 397–433.Google Scholar
Hanushek, E. (1992) The trade-off between child quantity and quality. Journal of Political Economy, 100(1), 84–117.Google Scholar
Ikels, C. (1993). Chinese kinship and the state: shaping of policy for the elderly. Chapter 6. In Maddox, G. and Lawton, M. P. (eds.), Annual Review of Gerontology and Geriatrics, vol. 13, pp. 123–146. New York, NY: Springer.Google Scholar
Imbens, G. W. (2004) Nonparametric estimation of average treatment effects under exogeneity: a review. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(1), 4–29.Google Scholar
Jiang, L. (1995) Changing kinship structure and its implications for old-age support in urban and rural China. Population Studies, 49(1), 127–145.Google Scholar
Lechner, M. (2002) Program heterogeneity and propensity score matching: an application to the evaluation of active labor market policies. Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(2), 205–220.Google Scholar
Lee, J. (2008) Sibling size and investment in children's education: an Asian instrument. Journal of Population Economics, 21, 855–875.Google Scholar
Li, L. and Wu, X. (2017) Number of siblings, credit constraints, and entrepreneurship in China. The Journal of Development Studies, 54(7), 1253–1273.Google Scholar
Li, H., Zhang, J. and Zhu, Y. (2008) The quantity–quality tradeoff of children in a developing country: identification using Chinese twins. Demography, 45(1), 223–243.Google Scholar
Liang, J. and Marier, P. (2017) Awaiting long-term care services in a rapidly changing environment: voices from older Chinese adults. Journal of Population Ageing, 10(4), 385–401.Google Scholar
Liu, H. (2014) The quality–quantity trade-off: evidence from the relaxation of China's one-child policy. Journal of Population Economics, 27, 565–602.Google Scholar
Millimet, D. and Wang, L. (2011) Is the quantity–quality trade-off a trade-off for all, none, or some? Economic Development and Cultural Change, 60(1), 155–195.Google Scholar
Molho, I. (2013) Theories of migration: a review. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 60(5), 526–556.Google Scholar
National Health and Family Planning Commission (2016) China's floating population report 2016, available at: http://www.wnwjj.gov.cn/info/610500/201409131421581159/201610201530446039.shtml.Google Scholar
National Statistics Bureau of China (2010) Statistics from the 1% sample of the 2010 population census. Available at: http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/pcsj/rkpc/6rp/indexch.htm.Google Scholar
National Statistics Bureau of China (2012) National Economy and Social Development 2012. Beijing: China Statistical Press.Google Scholar
National Statistics Bureau of China (2016) Statistical Yearbook of China 2016. Beijing: China Statistical Press.Google Scholar
Rosenbaum, P. R. (2002) Observational Studies, 2nd ed, New York: Springer.Google Scholar
Rosenbaum, P. R. and Rubin, D. B. (1985) Constructing a control group using multivariate matched sampling methods that incorporate the propensity score. The American Statistician, 39(1), 33–38.Google Scholar
Rosenzweig, M. and Wolpin, K. (1980) Testing the quantity–quality fertility model: the use of twins as a natural experiment. Econometrica, 48, 227–240.Google Scholar
Rosenzweig, M. and Zhang, J. (2009) Do population control policies induce more human capital investment? Twins, birthweight, and China's “one child” policy. Review of Economic Studies, 76(3), 1149–1174.Google Scholar
Sekhon, J. S. (2011) Multivariate and propensity score matching software with automated balance optimization: the matching package for R. Journal of Statistical Software, 42(7), 1–51.Google Scholar
Shang, X. (2001) Moving toward a multilevel and multi-pillar system: changes in institutional care in two Chinese cities. Journal of Social Policy, 30(2), 259–281.Google Scholar
Stohr, T. (2015) Siblings’ interaction in migration decisions: who provides for the elderly left behind? Journal of Population Economics, 28(3), 593–629.Google Scholar
United Nations (2013) World fertility report 2013. United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Washington DC: UN.Google Scholar
United Nations (2015) World population prospects: the 2015 revision. United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Washington DC: UN.Google Scholar
Wei, S., Zhang, X. and Liu, Y. (2017) Home ownership as status competition: some theory and evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 127, 169–186.Google Scholar
Zhang, H. (2007) Who will care for our parents? Changing boundaries of family and public roles in providing care for the aged in urban China. Care Management Journals, 8(1), 39–46.Google Scholar
Zhong, H. (2014) The effect of sibling size on children's health: a regression discontinuity design approach based on China's one-child policy. China Economic Review, 31, 156–165.Google Scholar
Zhong, H. (2017) The effect of sibling size on children's health and education: is there a quantity–quality trade-off? Journal of Development Studies, 53(8), 1194–1206.Google Scholar
Zhu, H. (2015) Unmet needs in long-term care and their associated factors among the oldest old in China. BMC Geriatrics, 15, 46. doi: 10.1186/s12877-015-0045-9Google Scholar
Zimmer, Z. and Kwong, J. (2003) Family size and support of older adults in urban and rural China: current effects and future implications. Demography, 40, 23–44.Google Scholar