Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-fbnjt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-19T14:09:20.509Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Stock Market Bubbles? A Reply

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 March 2009

Eugene N. White
Affiliation:
Professor of Economics at Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08903, and a Research Associate of the NBER.

Extract

Research in finance is guided by powerful intuitions from models of efficient markets. However, researchers have uncovered a number of puzzles that are not explained by these models. Such anomalies include the excess volatility of stock prices, the closed-end mutual fund paradox, and the mean reversion in stock prices that produces predictable returns for long holding periods.1 Whereas financial economists all recognize the existence of these puzzles, they disagree about how they can be explained. Robert J. Shiller argues, for example, that efficient-markets models cannot hope to explain these anomalies and looks to alternatives that incorporate fads.2 In contrast, John H. Cochrane believes that the puzzles can be explained by improved models of fundamentals.3

Type
Notes and Discussions
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 1995

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1914–1941. Washington, DC: GPO, 1943.Google Scholar
Campbell, , Y., John, and J. Shiller, Robert. “Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models.” Journal of Political Economy 95, no. 5 (1987): 1062–88.Google Scholar
Cecchetti, Stephen G. “Stock Market Crash of October 1929.” In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, edited by Newman, Peter, Milgate, Murray, and Eatwell, John, Vol. 3, 573–76, London: The Macmillan Press, 1992.Google Scholar
Cochrane, , H., John, “Volatility Tests and Efficient Markets: A Review Essay.” Journal of Monetary Economics 27, no. 3 (1991): 463–85.Google Scholar
Commercial and Financial Chronicle, 19191920.Google Scholar
Fama, , F., Eugene, and R. French, Kenneth. “Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices.” Journal of Political Economy 96, no. 2 (1988): 246–73.Google Scholar
Hamilton, , D., JamesOn Testing for Self-Fulfilling Speculative Price Bubbles.” International Economic Review 27, no. 3 (1986): 545–52.Google Scholar
Hamilton, , D., James, and H. Whiteman, Charles. “The Observable Implications of Self-Fulfilling Expectations.” Journal of Monetary Economics 16, no. 3 (1985): 353–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, , M. C., Charles, Shleifer, Andrei, and H. Thaler, Richard. “Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle.” Journal of Finance 46, no. 1 (1991): 75109.Google Scholar
Liu, , Tung, , J. Santoni, Gary, and C. Stone, Courtenay. “In Search of Stock Market Bubbles.” this JOURNAL 55, no. 3 (1995): 647654.Google Scholar
Pierce, , Phyllis, , The Dow Jones Averages: 1885–1980. Homewood IL: Dow Jones-Irwin, 1982.Google Scholar
Rappoport, , Peter, , and N. White, Eugene. “Was There a Bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?” this JOURNAL 53, no. 3 (1993): 549–74.Google Scholar
Rappoport, , Peter, , and N. White, Eugene. “Was the Crash of 1929 Expected?American Economic Review 84, no. 1 (1994): 271–81.Google Scholar
Schwert, G. William. “Stock Market Crash of October 1987.” In The New Paigrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, edited by Newman, Peter, Milgate, Murray, and Eatwell, John, Vol. 3, 577–82, London: The Macmillan Press, 1992.Google Scholar
Shiller, , J., RobertMarket Volatility. Cambridge MA: MIT Press, 1989.Google Scholar
Smiley, , Gene, , and H. Keehn, Richard. “Margin Purchases, Brokers’ Loans and the Bull Market of the Twenties.” Business and Economic History 17 (1988): 129–42.Google Scholar
Spahr, , Earl, Walter. The Federal Reserve System and the Control of Credit. New York: The Macmillan Company, 1931.Google Scholar
Tsurumi, Hiroki. “Survey of Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Testing of Model Stability in Econometrics.” In Bayesian Analysis of Time Series and Dynamic Models, edited by Spall, James C., 7599. New York: Marcel Dekker, Inc., 1994.Google Scholar
White, Eugene N. “When the Ticker Ran Late: The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929.” In Crashes and Panics: The Lessons from History, edited by White, Eugene N., 143–87. Homewood IL: Dow Jones-Irwin, 1990.Google Scholar
Willis, , Parker, Henry. The Federal Reserve System. New York: The Ronald Press, 1923.Google Scholar