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The Random Walk Hypothesis, Portfolio Analysis and the Buy-and-Hold Criterion**

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 October 2009

Extract

Recent literature has witnessed the emergence of an impressive body of empirical evidence relating to the relationship which exists between successive security price changes. The great majority of this evidence has tended to support what has come to be known as the theory of random walks in security prices—that is, the theory that successive security price changes behave as independent random variables, which implies that knowledge of “the past history of a series of price changes cannot be used to predict future changes in any ‘meaningful’ way.”

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © School of Business Administration, University of Washington 1968

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References

Evans, John L. and Archer, Stephen H., “Diversification and the Reduction of Dispersion: An Empirical Analysis,” Journal of Finance, Volume 23, No. 5 (December 1968), forthcoming.Google Scholar
Fama, Eugene F., and Blume, Marshall E., “Filter Rules and Stock Market Trading,” Journal of Business, Volume 39, No. 1, Part II (January 1966), p. 226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar