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Seasonal Fluctuations in Industrial Production and Stock Market Seasonals

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2009

Eric C. Chang  and
J. Michael Pinegar
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Abstract

February and August peaks in the growth rates of the seasonally unadjusted Industrial Production Index follow the stock market peaks documented by Rozeff and Kinney (1976) by one month. Coefficients on one-month lead growth rates in industrial production for small firms are positive and significant in time-series regressions even in the presence of the market factor. Moreover, whereas returns on large firms' stocks unidirectionally Granger cause (i.e., predict) future growth rates in industrial production at least six months in advance, returns on small firms' stocks reflect one-month lead as well as past growth rates in industrial production. For these reasons, we argue that seasonal real growth provides a partial explanation for the January stock seasonal among small firms.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis , Volume 24 , Issue 1 , March 1989 , pp. 59 - 74
Copyright
Copyright © School of Business Administration, University of Washington 1989

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