Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gxg78 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T14:59:54.407Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Discounting pension liabilities: funding versus value*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 June 2016

JEFFREY R. BROWN
Affiliation:
University of Illinois and NBER (e-mail: brownjr@illinois.edu)
GEORGE G. PENNACCHI
Affiliation:
University of Illinois (e-mail: gpennacc@illinois.edu)

Abstract

We argue that the appropriate discount rate for pension liabilities depends on the objective. In particular, if the objective is to measure pension under- or overfunding, a default-free discount rate should always be used, even if the liabilities are themselves not default-free. If, instead, the objective is to determine the market value of pension benefits, then it is appropriate that discount rates incorporate default risk. We also discuss the choice of a default-free discount rate. Finally, we show how cost-of-living adjustments that are common in public pensions can be accounted for and valued in this framework.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

We thank Editor Robert Clark, Joshua Rauh, Olivia Mitchell, and participants in the 2015 NBER Conference on Retirement and Health Benefits in the Public Sector for helpful feedback and suggestions.

References

Andonov, A., Bauer, R., and Cremers, M. (2014) Pension fund asset allocation and liability discount rates. SSRN Working Paper. Available online at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2070054.Google Scholar
Ang, A., Bekaert, G., and Wei, M. (2007) Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better? Journal of Monetary Economics, 54: 11631212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and International Organization of Securities Commissions (2015) Margin requirements for non-centrally cleared derivatives. (March) Available online at http://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d317.htm.Google Scholar
Bikker, J. and Vlaar, P. (2006) Conditional indexation in defined benefit pension plans. De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 86/January 2006.Google Scholar
Bohn, H. (2011) Should public retirement plans be fully funded? Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 10: 195219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, J. R. and Wilcox, D. (2009) Discounting state and local pension liabilities. American Economic Review, 99: 538542.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bulow, J. (1982) What are corporate pension liabilities? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 97: 435452.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cochrane, J. H. (2015) A new structure for U.S. federal debt. University of Chicago Booth Graduate School of Business Working Paper. Available online at http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/papers/Cochrane_US_Federal_Debt.pdf.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fleckenstein, M., Longstaff, F., and Lustig, H. (2014) The TIPS-treasury bond puzzle. Journal of Finance, 69: 21512197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Government Accountability Office (2014) Pension plan valuation: views on using multiple measures to offer a more complete financial picture. GAO-14-264 September.Google Scholar
Graveline, J. and McBrady, M. (2011) Who makes on-the-run treasuries special? Journal of Financial Intermediation, 20: 620632.Google Scholar
Gürkaynak, R., Sack, B., and Wright, J. (2007) The U.S. treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54: 22912304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haubrich, J., Pennacchi, G., and Ritchken, P. (2012) Inflation expectations, real rates, and risk premia: evidence from inflation swaps. Review of Financial Studies, 25: 15881629.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krishnamurthy, A. (2002) The bond/old-bond spread. Journal of Financial Economics, 66: 463506.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, C. and Pennacchi, G. (1999) Valuing insurance for defined-benefit pension plans. Advances in Futures and Options Research, 10: 135167.Google Scholar
Longstaff, F. A. (2004) The flight-to-liquidity premium in U.S. treasury bond prices. Journal of Business, 77: 511526.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lucas, D. and Zeldes, S. P. (2006) Valuing and hedging defined benefit pension obligations – the role of stocks revisited. Available online at http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/whoswho/getpub.cfm?pub=2382.Google Scholar
Lucas, D. J. and Zeldes, S. P. (2009) How should public pension plans invest? American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 99(2): 527532.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Merton, R. C. (1974) On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance, 29: 449470.Google Scholar
Munnell, A. H., Aubry, J.-P. and Quinby, L. (2011) Public pension funding in practice. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 10: 247268.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Munnell, A. H., Aubry, J.-P. and Cafarelli, M. (2014) COLA cuts in state/local pensions. Boston College Center for Retirement Research. State and Local Pension Plans Issue Brief Number 38. May.Google Scholar
Novy-Marx, R. (2015) Economic and financial approaches to valuing pension liabilities. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 14: 144150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Novy-Marx, R. and Rauh, J. (2011a) Public pension promises: how big are they and what are they worth? Journal of Finance, 66: 12111249.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Novy-Marx, R. and Rauh, J. (2011b) Policy options for state pension systems and their impact on plan liabilities. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 10: 173194.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Novy-Marx, R. and Rauh, J. (2014) Linking benefits to investment performance in U.S. public pension systems. Journal of Public Economics, 116: 4761.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pennacchi, G. and Lewis, C. (1994) The value of pension benefit guaranty corporation insurance. Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 26: 733753.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peskin, M. (2001) Asset/liability management in the public sector. In Mitchell, O. and Hustead, E. (eds), Pensions in the Public Sector. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press, pp. 195217.Google Scholar
Ticot, Y. and Charvet, X. (2013) LPI swaps with a smile. Risk, 26: 6671.Google Scholar
Vasicek, O. (1977) An equilibrium characterization of the term structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 5: 177188.CrossRefGoogle Scholar