Retirement flexibility is often seen as a hedge against macroeconomic risks such as capital market risks, which justifies more risky asset portfolios. This paper analyses the robustness of this claim in both a partial equilibrium and general equilibrium setting. We show that this positive relationship between risk taking and retirement flexibility is weakened and under some conditions even turned around if not only capital market risks, but also productivity risks are considered. Productivity risk in combination with a high elasticity of substitution between consumption and leisure creates a positive correlation between asset returns and labour income, reducing the willingness of consumers to bear risk.

We explore how the contract values of the various stakeholders of a typical US state civil servants pension fund are affected under the continuation of current policies and under alternative policies, such as changes in contribution, indexation and investment allocation policies. We find that all participant cohorts derive a substantial net benefit from the current pension contract, while all tax-paying cohorts make substantial contributions. The shift in value from tax payers to participants can be reduced substantially by having the latter make larger contributions or making indexation less generous. Under our baseline calibration, and continuation of existing policies, the chances are high that the fund's assets get depleted in the coming decades.

Despite the large and growing returns to deferring Social Security benefits, most individuals claim Social Security before the full retirement age. In this paper, we use a panel of administrative tax data on individuals likely to financially benefit from delaying Social Security claiming to explore the relationship between Social Security claiming and distributions from tax-advantaged retirement savings accounts. We find that the majority of our sample claim Social Security prior to taking distributions from Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs). We also find that a third of our sample have IRA balances equivalent to at least two additional years of Social Security benefits, and a quarter have IRA balances equivalent to at least 4 years of Social Security benefits. We complement our analysis with data from the Health and Retirement Study and find that these percentages are considerably higher when other financial assets are taken into account.

We evaluate how financial education provided to college students influenced their financial knowledge and planning in a quasi-experimental setting where we control for student motivation to enroll in the course. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, we show that financial education led to an increase in financial knowledge and planning. Specifically, we find that financial education improved students’ financial knowledge score by 11%, and financial planning score by 16%. No statistically significant effects are detected for student levels of financial prudence, discipline, or outcomes related to credit card usage.

This paper provides a methodological critique of an influential method for assessing the impact on the Unfunded Accrued Liabilities (UAL) of the gap between assumed and actual investment returns over extended periods, and offers a sound replacement. The method in question simply sums over time the components of the annual actuarial gain/loss report. This implicitly assumes that in the counterfactual exercise, the interest on the additional UAL is covered dollar-for-dollar by amortization. But under actual funding formulas amortization usually varies less than interest. This means there are large intertemporal interactions between the gap in investment returns and subsequent shortfalls between contributions and interest. Using the actual funding formula in the counterfactual can lead to much higher estimates of the UAL impact of the gap in investment returns because it does not assume away these interactions. This method can more accurately inform policy-makers, regarding the importance of cutting the assumed rate of return.

Using recovery plan data of 213 underfunded Dutch pension funds for the years 2011, 2012 and 2013, discrete choice models are estimated describing pension funds' choices between three recovery measures: higher contributions, no indexation and pension cuts. The estimation results suggest, first, that pension cuts are more likely when the funding ratio is very low, there is little time left for recovery, the pension fund is not a corporate pension fund, and its participants are still relatively young. Second, the results suggest that Dutch pension funds consider contribution increase first, no indexation second and pension cuts only as a last resort.

In this paper, I study how pay-as-you-go pension systems of the notional defined contribution type can be designed such that they remain financially stable in the presence of increasing life expectancy. For this to happen three crucial parameters must be set in an appropriate way: the notional interest rate, the adjustment rate and the annuity conversion factor. I show that there exist two main approaches to implement a stable system. The first uses period-specific annuitization and indexation rates that correct for labor force increases, which are only due to rises in the retirement age which are necessary to ‘neutralize’ the increase in life expectancy. The second approach uses cohort-specific annuitization and indexation rates that are larger than in a stationary situation. This is due to the fact that a continuously increasing life expectancy leads to higher internal rates of return that can be passed on via the indexation.

We study the combined effects of financial incentives and information provision on retirement behavior. To elicit preferences for retirement timing in the laboratory, we ask subjects to make retirement choices under different payoff schemes that introduce variation in financial incentives. Testing ceteris paribus conditions of the financial incentive alone shows a considerable delay of retirement once early retirement becomes financially less attractive. However, varying available information as another treatment parameter reveals considerable heterogeneity in the functioning of these incentives. Subjects who are explicitly informed about the expected pension wealth respond more strongly to financial incentives compared with those who only know their pension annuity. Being informed about a forward-looking measure of pension benefits makes the financial consequences of retirement choices more salient to the decision maker.

Analyses of pension funding effects on economic growth should differentiate between ‘carve-out’ pension privatization in Latin America and Eastern Europe and typical ‘add-on’ pension funding in Western Europe and North America. We find no evidence that pension privatization in Latin America and Eastern Europe was associated with higher economic growth. The result is robust across both continents and several alternative econometric specifications. Positive growth effects are particularly unlikely in countries resorting to debt-financed privatization. Furthermore, we note the lack of positive pension privatization effects on savings in Eastern Europe, with limited evidence of positive savings effects in Latin America. These findings suggest that cost-containment parametric reforms should be given priority over carve-out pension privatization when considering options for restoring financial sustainability of public Pay-As-You-Go systems.

The aim of this paper is to study the long-run effects of a longevity increase on individual decisions about education and retirement, taking macroeconomic repercussions through endogenous factor prices and the pension system into account. We build a model of a closed economy inhabited by overlapping generations of finitely-lived individuals whose labour productivity depends on their age through the build-up of labour market experience and the depreciation of human capital. We make two contributions to the literature on the macroeconomics of population ageing. First, we show that it is important to recognize that a longer life need not imply a more productive life and that this matters for the affordability of an unfunded pension system. Second, we find that factor prices could move in a direction opposite to the one accepted as conventional wisdom following an increase in longevity, if this increase is accompanied by a sufficient decline in the rate of human capital depreciation.

The aim of the paper is to investigate how child policies affect the population growth and to what extent these policies are useful to increase pension benefits of a pay-as-you-go pension system in a small open economy. Specifically, we analyze two different child policies: the provision of child allowances and an educational subsidy. We apply an overlapping generations model in its canonical form, where we consider endogenous fertility, endogenous growth and endogenous aging of the society. From the analysis, we conclude that with a child allowance, there is a consequent increase in the number of children and decrease in pension benefits and life expectancy. On the other hand, we note that with an educational subsidy, there is a decrease in the number of children, and an increase in the pension benefits and the life expectancy, respectively. The model developed aims to complement the models of the Unified Growth Theory.

When compared with wage earners, the self-employed are reported to have a lower take up rate of tax-favored retirement plans in the United States. Using panel data from federal income tax returns for the years 1999–2006, this paper explores the various factors that shape the observed pattern of contributions to such plans by the self-employed. Consistent with previous findings in the literature, contributions rise with income, tax rates, as well as savings in taxable accounts. More interestingly, the novel findings in this paper address the role that debt plays in shaping contributions. While housing and business-related debts are accorded similar tax treatment, the findings show that contributions decline with business debt whereas they rise with household debt.

The inflation experience of people depends on their expenditure patterns and price developments. This paper identifies groups of retirees that have experienced relatively high price inflation over the last few decades and could thus be considered most vulnerable when income decreases, as has been the case in the Netherlands in recent years. For this we use household budget survey data from 1978 to 2004 supplemented with price information from 1978 to 2012. A methodological contribution to the literature is that an empirical framework based on the theory of consumer demand is used that explicitly makes the link between expenditure patterns and inflation experiences of households. We find that retired couples aged 65–69 have experienced about average inflation over the past few decades. Differences in inflation experiences between households result from relative price increases in goods, such as rent and utilities, on which single, low-income and older households spend relatively more of their budget, and relative price decreases in goods, such as leisure activities (including vacations), on which these households spend relatively less. The estimated differences over the 1978–2012 period in annual inflation experience are about 0.14 percentage points between single and married retirees, 0.06 percentage points between retired couples in the age groups 65–69 and 75–79 and 0.19 percentage points between retirees with low and high expenditures. Although these differences are statistically significant, they could be considered too small to be of economic significance compared with an average household having experienced 2.4% annual inflation.

Some public sectors provide cash-balance pension plans with guaranteed interest credits. We use the certainty-equivalence framework to derive the subjective value of the guarantee perceived by the participant. Numerical results show that in many scenarios the subjective value is lower than the cost of the guarantee derived by option pricing approaches, implying that public sectors potentially spend too much in providing the guarantee. However, the subjective value could be higher than the cost of the guarantee under some scenarios, depending on the participant's level of risk aversion, the feasibility of diversification, and so forth.

This paper analyzes whether herding and skillful managers may coexist. When herding appears, managers tend to present poor timing abilities; however, a weak herding level (a result commonly found in pension funds) may evidence a mixed scenario, where some managers develop skills, and others follow the herd. Additionally, when informational cascades emerge, some managers may act as leaders, anticipating others’ movements. Nonetheless, this anticipatory skill does not mean that leaders also anticipate market movements and present timing skills. Our results show herding and inter-temporal herding in a sample of Spanish pension funds, though the imitation behavior is not strong. We also find evidence of a mixed scenario, in which some non-herding managers present timing skills, while herding funds are not able to develop these abilities. Finally, we find successful timing for certain leaders, showing that the anticipation of others’ movements does not show real timing abilities.

This paper presents the results from the first study of financial literacy in Finland and explores the relationship between financial literacy and retirement planning in Finland. Finland is an interesting case because countervailing effects may exist: a high level of education might increase financial literacy, while the high provision of social security may decrease it and weaken its relationship with pension planning. The results indicate that the level of financial literacy in Finland is comparatively high, although it is unequally distributed among the population. With respect to pension planning, we find that there is little evidence of a relationship between the three core financial literacy questions and retirement planning; however, a statistically significant and positive relationship exists between retirement planning and an extended measure of financial literacy, consisting mostly of more demanding questions. When we split the sample by gender, we find evidence of a positive relationship between financial literacy and retirement planning among women but not among men. The results indicate that scaling down publicly guaranteed pension benefits may pose a challenge to the less financially literate segment of the population.

In the wake of the economic downturn of 2008–2009, researchers and policymakers have focused considerable attention on the extent of unfunded liabilities in US public sector pension plans and the implications for the long term fiscal sustainability of state and local governments. In response to the growth in liabilities, many states have introduced legislation that cuts back on defined benefit (DB) plan commitments, in some cases even shifting the pension system from a DB to a defined contribution or hybrid plan. This paper explores the factors that have led states to engage in pension reform, focusing particular attention on one factor that has only recently gained attention in the research literature: contribution volatility. While unfunded liabilities have significant long-term solvency implications, in the short term fluctuations in the amount of required contributions pose substantial difficulties for the ability of plan sponsors to balance budgets and engage in strategic planning. We begin by quantifying the volatility in the required contributions US states were expected to make between 2001 and 2013 and comparing the volatility of pension spending to other relevant tax and spending measures. Next, we describe the various types of pension reforms that states have implemented and examine the fiscal pressures facing those states that have engaged in reform. States with greater fluctuations in their required payments have been more likely to reduce benefits and increase employee contributions; they have also been more likely to institute these reforms sooner.

The paper shows the impact of changes in multi-pillar pension systems in six Central and Eastern European countries for individual pension wealth. It demonstrates that the post-crisis changes in pension system reduced pension wealth of workers in Poland and increased in Lithuania and Slovakia. The change did not have significant impact on pension wealth in Estonia and Romania. The magnitude of this effect is highest in those countries where the reduction of the fully-funded pension contribution was permanent. Loss or gain in pension wealth varies with age of participants – it is higher for younger people, who will accumulate their pension wealth to a larger extent after the change. The level of the change in pension wealth depends also on the wage level – higher earners lose more relative to the average wage level. The difference in pension wealth depends also on the difference between rates of return in fully funded and pay-as-you-go (PAYG) components of the pension system. The net outcome of post-crisis pension system modifications depends both on the magnitude of fully-funded contribution reduction, but also on the design of PAYG component and the way individual pension rights are accrued. These results indicate the rise in implicit liability of pension system in Slovakia to be higher than the reduction of the explicit liability caused by the pension system change and the lower rise of implicit liability in Poland and Latvia.