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On the probable effect of Withdrawals on the Rate of Mortality among Assured Lives

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 August 2016

William Thomas Gray
Affiliation:
Life Association of Scotland, London
T.B. Sprague
Affiliation:
Life Association of Scotland, London

Extract

Questions as to the rate of mortality amongst assured lives, and enquiries based on re-arrangements of the mortality experience of life assurance companies collected by the Institute of Actuaries, have so frequently been discussed that I entertain some doubts as to whether the subject has not already been worn threadbare. Knowing, however, the kindness and consideration with which the Council receive contributions from junior members of the Institute, I venture to submit the results of some calculations I have lately made with a view of testing the probable effect of lapses and surrenders on the rate of mortality—a branch of the general question of mortality of assured lives which has not hitherto been directly dealt with.

The subject of this paper was some years ago suggested to me by a careful perusal of Mr. Sprague's paper (J.I.A. xv, 328), entitled “On the Rate of Mortality prevailing among “Assured Lives as influenced by the length of time for which they “have been assured”; but, although I had frequently turned the matter over in my mind, it was only recently I saw my way to give practical effect to my ideas.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1884

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References

page 260 note * In speaking of the gain or loss to an office arising out of withdrawals, I refer only to their effect on the mortality experience, and not in any way to the allowances made for cancellation of the policies.

page 261 note * The rough and graduated values of qx for the HM(0-4) Table will be found in the Appendix, Table L, at the end of this paper. The rate of mortality by Farr' table is also added for comparison.

page 263 note * The actual deaths were retained below age 10.

page 266 note * I have assumed one age at entry and 10 years as the term of the possible currency of the policies, in order to bring the experience within narrow limits; and have preferred endowment assurances to term policies, in order to dintinguish the survivors of the term from lapses. If, however, Society A, instead of granting policies at one age at entry only, had issued assurances for all ages, the rate of mortality at age x + n would come out as follows:—Let n R x represent the number out of the entrants at age x, who (having survived death and discontinuance) pay their premiums at the commencement of year n of assurance, ndx representing the corresponding deaths in that year; then we should have from the records of Society A,

whilst from Society B's experience we should obtain

page 270 note * This would have to be done for each age at entry up to, say, the 30th year of assurance—at any rate, up to the 15th—at a varying rate of discontinuance for each age at entry.

page 274 note * The benefit to be derived from new assurers and withdrawals is here somewhat overstated. Some of the new assurers will lapse or surrender their policies, and as “discontinued” are included in the percentage (18·24) of withdrawals; they are therefore counted over twice.

page 292 note * Vide also page 293.