Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jkksz Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-24T00:05:24.632Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Projecting the spread of AIDS in the United Kingdom: a sensitivity analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 April 2012

C. D. Daykin ,
P. N. S. Clark ,
M. J. Eves ,
S. Haberman ,
D. J. le Grys ,
J. Lockyer ,
R. W. Michaelson  and
A. D. Wilkie
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In AIDS Bulletins Nos. 1 to 4 the Institute of Actuaries AIDS Working Party presented projections of HIV infection and AIDS based on a model developed by Wilkie. This paper explores the sensitivity of those projections to the various different assumptions which have to be made and presents results on a number of alternative sets of assumptions.

Keywords

AIDSProjectionsModels
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of the Institute of Actuaries , Volume 117 , Issue 1 , June 1990 , pp. 95 - 133
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1990

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anderson, R. M., May, R. M., Medley, G. F. & Johnson, A. E. (1986). A preliminary study of the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the causative agent of AIDS. I.M.A. J. Math. Appl. Med. & Biol. 3, 229.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Barre-Sinoussi, F., Cheerman, J. C., Rey, F. et al. (1983). Isolation of a T-lymphotropic retrovirus from a patient at risk for AIDS. Science, 220, 868.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Blythe, S. P. & Anderson, R. M. (1988a). Heterogeneous sexual activity models of HIV transmission in male homosexual populations. I.M.A.J. Math. Appl. Med. & Biol. 5, 237.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Blythe, S. P. & Anderson, R. M. (1988b). Variable infectiousness in HIV transmission models. I.M.A. J. Math. Appl. Med. & Biol. 5, 181.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
C.I.A. Task Force On Aids (1988). First report of the Subcommittee on Modelling. November 1988.Google Scholar
Day, N. E. et al. (1990). ‘Forecasts for AIDS in England and Wales to the end of 1993-incidence and prevalence.’ Public Health Laboratory Service.Google Scholar
Daykin, C. D. (1990). The epidemiology of HIV infection and AIDS. J.I.A. 117, 51.Google Scholar
Department of Health/Welsh Office (1988). ‘Short-term prediction of HIV infection and AIDS in England & Wales.’ Report of a Working Group. HMSO.Google Scholar
European Study Group (1989). Risk factors for male to female transmission of HIV. B.M.J. 298, 411.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedland, G. H. & Klein, R. S. (1987). Transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus. New Eng. J. of Med. 317, 1125.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gallo, R. C., Salahuddin, S. Z., Popovic, M. et al. (1984). Frequent detection and isolation of cytopathic retroviruses (HTLV-III) from patients with AIDS or at risk from AIDS. Science, 224, 500.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Greenblatt, R. M., Lukehart, S. A., Plummer, F. A. et al. (1988). Genital ulceration as a risk factor for human immunodeficiency virus infection. AIDS 1988, 2, 47.Google ScholarPubMed
Haberman, S. (1990). Actuarial review of models for describing and predicting the spread of HIV infection and AIDS. (to appear in J.I.A. 117.)Google Scholar
Hessol, N. A., Rutherford, G. W., Lifson, A. R. et al. (1988). ‘The natural history of HIV infection in a cohort of homosexual and bisexual men: a decade of follow-up.’ Presented at the IVth International Conference on AIDS, Stockholm, June 1988. Abstract 4096.Google Scholar
Hyman, J. M. & Stanley, E. A. (1988). Using mathematical models to understand the AIDS epidemic. Math. Biosc. 90, 415.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lemp, G. F., Barnhart, J. L., Rutherford, G. W. et al. (1988). ‘Trends in the length of survival for AIDS cases in San Francisco.’ Presented at the IVth International Conference on AIDS, Stockholm, June 1988. Abstract 4589.Google Scholar
Lifson, A. R. (1988). Do alternate modes for transmission of human immunodeficiency virus exist? J.A.M.A. 259, 1353.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Medley, G. F., Anderson, R. M., Cox, D. R. & Billard, L. (1988). Estimating the incubation time period for AIDS patients. Nature, 333, 505.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
NH & Mrc Special Unit In Aids Epidemiology and Clinical Research (1989). Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Cumulative analysis of cases in Australia, 12 July 1989.Google Scholar
Piot, P. & Laga, M. (1989). Genital ulcers, other sexually transmitted diseases, and the sexual transmission of HIV. B.M.J. 298, 623.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Quinn, T. C., Mann, J. M., Curran, J. W. & Piot, P. (1986). AIDS in Africa-an epidemiological paradigm. Science, 234, 955.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
W.H.O. (1990). Update: AIDS cases reported to the Surveillance, Forecasting and Impact Assessment Unit, Global Programme on AIDS, 1 March 1990.Google Scholar
Wilkie, A. D. (1988). An actuarial model for AIDS. J.I.A. 115, 839.Google Scholar