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BAYESIAN MODELING OF ECONOMIES AND DATA REQUIREMENTS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 March 2002

Arnold Zellner
Affiliation:
University of Chicago
Bin Chen
Affiliation:
University of Chicago

Extract

Marshallian demand, supply, and entry models are employed for major sectors of an economy that can be combined with factor market models for money, labor, capital, and bonds to provide a Marshallian macroeconomic model (MMM). Sectoral models are used to produce sectoral output forecasts, which are summed to provide forecasts of annual growth rates of U.S. real GDP. These disaggregative forecasts are compared to forecasts derived from models implemented with aggregate data. The empirical evidence indicates that it pays to disaggregate, particularly when employing Bayesian shrinkage forecasting procedures. Further, some considerations bearing on alternative model-building strategies are presented using the MMM as an example and describing its general properties. Last, data requirements for implementing MMMs are discussed.

Type
HONORARY LECTURE
Copyright
© 2001 Cambridge University Press

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