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IS MORE MEMORY IN EVOLUTIONARY SELECTION (DE)STABILIZING?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 February 2011

Cars Hommes ,
Tatiana Kiseleva ,
Yuri Kuznetsov  and
Miroslav Verbic
Cars Hommes*
Affiliation:
University of Amsterdam
Tatiana Kiseleva
Affiliation:
University of Amsterdam
Yuri Kuznetsov
Affiliation:
Utrecht University
Miroslav Verbic
Affiliation:
University of Ljubljana
*
Address correspondence to: Cars Hommes, Roetersstraat 11, 1018WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands; e-mail: C.H.Hommes@uva.nl.
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Abstract

We investigate the effects of memory on the stability of evolutionary selection dynamics based on a multinomial logit model in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs. Whether memory is stabilizing or destabilizing depends in general on three key factors: (1) whether or not the weights on past observations are normalized; (2) the ecology or composition of forecasting rules, in particular the average trend extrapolation factor and the spread or diversity in biased forecasts; and (3) whether or not costs for information gathering of economic fundamentals have to be incurred.

Keywords

Fitness MeasureAsset PricingBifurcationsEvolutionary SelectionHeterogeneous BeliefsMemory Strength
Type
Articles
Information
Macroeconomic Dynamics , Volume 16 , Issue 3 , June 2012 , pp. 335 - 357
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011

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