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Epidemiology of Dengue Fever:A Model with Temporary Cross-Immunityand Possible Secondary Infection Shows Bifurcationsand Chaotic Behaviour in Wide Parameter Regions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 December 2008

Maíra Aguiar
Affiliation:
Centro de Matemática e Aplicações Fundamentais da Universidade de Lisboa, Avenida Prof. Gama Pinto 2, 1649-003 Lisboa, Portugal Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, Apartado 14, 2781-901 Oeiras, Portugal Laboratório de dengue e febre amarela, Fundação Ezequiel Dias, Rua Conde Pereira Carneiro 80, 30510-010 Belo Horizonte-MG, Brasil
Bob Kooi
Affiliation:
Department of Theoretical Biology, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1087, NL 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Nico Stollenwerk*
Affiliation:
Centro de Matemática e Aplicações Fundamentais da Universidade de Lisboa, Avenida Prof. Gama Pinto 2, 1649-003 Lisboa, Portugal Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, Apartado 14, 2781-901 Oeiras, Portugal
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Abstract

Basic models suitable to explain the epidemiology of dengue fever have previouslyshown the possibility of deterministically chaotic attractors, which might explain the observedfluctuations found in empiric outbreak data. However, the region of bifurcations and chaos requirestrong enhanced infectivity on secondary infection, motivated by experimental findings ofantibody-dependent-enhancement. Including temporary cross-immunity in such models, which iscommon knowledge among field researchers in dengue, we find bifurcations up to chaotic attractorsin much wider and also unexpected parameter regions of reduced infectivity on secondaryinfection, realistically describing more likely hospitalization on secondary infection when the viralload becomes high. The model shows Hopf bifurcations, symmetry breaking bifurcations of limitcycles, coexisting isolas, and two different possible routes to chaos, via the Feigenbaum perioddoubling and via torus bifurcations.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© EDP Sciences, 2008

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