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An Analysis of Tax Changes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

W. A. B. Hopkin
Affiliation:
National Institute
H. M. Treasury
Affiliation:
National Institute
W. A. H. Godley
Affiliation:
National Institute
D. A. Rowe
Affiliation:
National Institute

Extract

In this country, when Governments change tax-rates, their main purpose is usually to alter the general level of demand. They clearly need to know, as best they can, how much effect on demand various types of tax change will have. Further, outside the Government, any short-term forecast of the economy also needs to make some estimate of the consequences of tax changes.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © 1965 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

note (1) page 34 This is because, when indirect taxes are reduced (or raised), expenditure on goods which bear a high rate of tax (such as drink and tobacco) is likely to rise (or fall) relatively rapidly. So the increase in demand at factor cost will be a good deal smaller than the increase at market prices. This point is discussed further on page 37, and illustrated with a statistical example in the Appendix, page 40.

note (1) page 35 The Government Actuary is responsible for preparing these estimates.

note (1) page 36 These calculations will of course change when Corporation Tax is introduced.

note (1) page 37 Counting any increase in consumer debt as dis-saving (as in the national income accounts), there would be a fall in personal savings.

note (2) page 37 W. A. H. Godley and D. A. Rowe, Retail and Con sumer Prices, 1955-1963’, National Institute Economic Review No. 30, November 1964, page 44.

note (1) page 39 This relationship is not, however, assumed to hold where the change in consumption is brought about by a change in rates of tax on tobacco and alcoholic drink : see below, page 40.

note (2) page 39 The relationship between the movement of imports, total final sales and stockbuilding will be analysed in a forthcoming number of the Review.

note (3) page 39 These taxes differ a little from those in table 4 mainly because the time period is slightly different.

note (1) page 40 They are derived from published estimates (Richard Stone and D. A. Rowe, ‘Dynamic demand functions : some econometric results’, Economic Journal, June 1958, page 256), where these are available, supplemented by some rougher guesses based on estimates for related commodities. The values shown are believed to be at least of the right order of magnitude but somewhat different assumptions would not significantly affect the result for total consumption.

note (1) page 42 Any change in the Exchequer contribution has been excluded from the figures.