It is always difficult to distinguish the trend of output in the early months of the year, as much depends on the weather. This year, it seems fairly clear that relatively mild conditions in January in a number of countries, notably the US and West Germany, contributed significantly to recovery both in industrial production and, more especially, in construction from the depressed levels of the previous quarter. But it is not possible to isolate this influence on the statistics from that of falling interest rates or as yet to judge how far it may have been balanced, in terms of the first quarter as a whole, by unseasonably cold weather later on. Gratification at what seems on the face of it to have been an encouraging start to the year must be tempered by reservations about its reliability as an indication of what is to follow.