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Forecasting Commodity Prices

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

G. F. Ray  and
H. J. Timm
G. F. Ray
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
H. J. Timm
Affiliation:
HWWA-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Hamburg
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Abstract

After a brief description of the National Institute's approach to forecasting the price development of the major commodities in world trade this note presents a simple method for checking the aggregate outcome of that exercise.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 93 , August 1980 , pp. 76 - 79
Copyright
Copyright © 1980 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

page 76 note (1) This group consists of eight research institutes, those in Hamburg, Kiel, London, Munich, Paris, The Hague, Zurich and Budapest.

page 77 note (1) The HWWA index is based on OECD imports, of commodities (including petroleum), the UNCTAD index used by NIESR reflects market prices of the principal commodity exports of developing countries, (excluding petroleum), etc.

page 77 note (2) The UNCTAD index was introduced in this Review (replacing the NIESR index which we started in 1959) in the February 1979 issue; a full description appeared on pages 57-60 of that issue, with the detailed list of 38 commodities and 66 price quotations then included in the calculation of the index.

page 77 note (3) Crude oil is not included in the UNCTAD index.