Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-ndw9j Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-13T22:37:42.371Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

UK Economy Forecast

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Extract

The economy continues to expand at a robust pace (figure 1). We now expect GDP to rise by 2¾ per cent in 2007 after similar growth in 2006. This is an upward revision to our forecast for economic growth in 2006 and 2007 of approximately ¼ percentage point since October. Underlying these changes to the forecast for 2006 are upward revisions to the data for the first half of last year and stronger than expected growth for the third quarter of last year. The healthy pace of expansion forecast for this year is supported by a further acceleration in domestic demand growth after the weakness observed in 2005. This is led by a pick-up in consumer spending, supported by stronger growth in real disposable incomes and rapid accumulation of household wealth, and the continued strength of investment demand.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 2007 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Abbey plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Ernst and Young LLP, Marks and Spencer plc, The National Grid Company plc, Nomura Research Institute Europe Ltd, Rio Tinto plc, Unilever plc and Watson Wyatt LLP.

References

Barrell, R., Guillemineau, C. and Liadze, I. (2006), ‘Migration in Europe’, National Institute Economic Review, 198, pp.36–9.10.1177/0027950106074036Google Scholar
Barrell, R., Kirby, S., and Riley, R. (2004), ‘The current position of UK house prices’, National Institute Economic Review, 189, pp. 5760.10.1177/002795010418900105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrell, R. and Riley, R. (2006), ‘Is UK business investment unusually weak?’, National Institute Economic Review, 196, pp. 60–2.10.1177/0027950106067045CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harrison, R., Nikolov, K., Quinn, M., Ramsay, G., Scott, A., and Thomas, R. (2005), The Bank of England Quarterly Model, Bank of England.Google Scholar
Mitchell, J. (2003), ‘Should we be surprised by the unreliability of real-time output gap estimates? Density estimates for the Euro Area’, revised 2005, NIESR Discussion Paper 225.Google Scholar