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The Economic Situation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Extract

There are two main questions raised by the figures published in the last three months. First, to what extent has the rise in national output slowed down already : and is a substantial increase in real demand still to be expected over the next year? Secondly, how far does the fall in exports in the second quarter alter the balance of payments outlook?

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 1964 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Note (1) page 4 Statistical Appendix, table 1.

Note (2) page 4 For an explanation of the concept of a single ‘com promise’ estimate, see Measuring National Product' by W. A. H. Godley and C. Gillion, National Institute Economic Review No. 27, February 1964, page 61.

Note (3) page 4 In recent quarters, the volume of exports of goods and services, as recorded in the national accounts, seem to have shown a rather different movement from the volume of goods, as recorded in the Trade Accounts.

Note (4) page 4 The relationship between the replies to the FBI Enquiry and the movement of the industrial production index was analysed in ‘The FBI Industrial Enquiry’ by J. R. Shepherd, National Institute Economic Review No. 26, November 1963; see especially table 1, page 76.

Note (1) page 6 Statistical Appendix, table 23.

Note (1) page 7 See the article on page 26 of this issue for full discussion of the terms used here.

Note (1) page 8 This calculation is based on the most optimistic of the three export assumptions for 1965. It also assumes no further rise in import prices from 1965 onwards, but a continued upward trend in export prices of 1 1/2 per cent a year.

Note (1) page 9 Statistical Appendix, table 12.

Note (2) page 9 Statistical Appendix, table 13.

Note (1) page 10 Statistical Appendix, table 13.

Note (1) page 11 See chart 17, ‘Wage costs per unit of output in manu facturing’, National Institute Economic Review No. 27, February 1964.

Note (2) page 12 Between 1962 and 1963 our share fell only from 15.1 to 14.9 per cent (Statistical Appendix, table 23).

Note (3) page 13 See table 3, ‘Monthly revisions to engineering export orders ’,National Institute Economic Review No. 28, May 1964.

Note (4) page 14 The German figures, it is true, are at current prices, whereas the British figures are at constant prices. But German export prices rose very little over this period.

Note (1) page 16 The classification is necessarily a fairly rough and ready one. For instance, all paper and board has been treated as non-competitive, although there is an appreciable part which does in fact compete with British manufactures.

Note (1) page 21 OECD's seasonally adjusted figures of total trade in April/May show an improvement in the balance while the seasonally adjusted figures of trade with different areas show a worsening.

Note (1) page 22 US official figures show no surplus after seasonal adjust ment, but this is because the conventional US method of estimation treats as a financing item changes in the dollar balances of private holders in other countries, which are rising steadily, but not changes in United States assets of a similar kind.

Note (2) page 22 In the United States balance of payments the income and investment figures exclude subsidiaries' undistributed profits.

Note (1) page 25 Individual countries are to refrain from imposing new obstacles to imports of commodities from developing coun tries, and to aim at reducing taxes and raising quotas on them by the end of 1965, modifying agricultural support policies, avoiding export subsidies, and making available to the developing countries financial resources equal to about 1 per cent of national incomes. They are also to help in the estab lishment of ‘simple’ industries in the developing countries, and plans are to be considered internationally for giving tariff preferences to their exports of manufactures and semi- manufactures, and for providing assistance where development programmes are threatened by continuing short-falls in earnings from commodity exports.