In a recent interview with Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon, Alyaksandr Lukashenka—President of Belarus since the establishment of this office in 1994—explained why he was the only parliamentarian in Belarus who did not support the ratification of the 1991 Belovezha Accords that brought down the Soviet Union and established the Commonwealth of Independent States. “I loved my country. I believed that the Soviet Union was a state that stabilized the world.” (Interview, August 6, 2020). It is small wonder that after coming to power in 1994, President Lukashenka worked to keep a wide range of Soviet institutions and practices alive in Belarus: an oversized public sector inculcating and propagating paternalistic attitudes among the citizenry; a centralized political system inimical to political competition; and a shrewd geopolitical approach oscillating between Russia and the European Union.

Russia’s economic assistance through subsidized energy has kept the regime afloat. For years Lukashenka could point to Ukraine—torn apart between Russia and the West, shaken by colored revolutions and greedy oligarchs, devastated by a civil war—and claim that he has at least preserved order in Belarus. The regime has kept the country’s borders open: those who could not stomach the system could “exit.” Yet Lukashenka’s strategies could not put a brake on the deep changes that Belarussian society has been undergoing in recent decades. Furthermore, his incompetent dismissal of the threats associated with the Covid-19 pandemic represented an additional catalyst for society’s mobilization in pursuit of political changes.

The structural changes in society have primarily been driven by transformations in the economy. The Belarussian economy has traditionally relied on the manufacturing industry, dominated by state-owned enterprises that exported mainly heavy machinery, tractors, and trucks. Over the last two decades the country has experienced a mounting growth of the IT sector, encouraged by the government and benefitting from the country’s human capital and tech-focused higher education. The Soviet legacy of public universities promoting hard sciences and Belarus’ role as an ‘assembly point’ and a ‘technology hub’ of the USSR have helped to create a globally integrated high-tech industry that offers tech solutions to foreign firms and organizations. Software packages, computer games, and other IT services represent an important part of Belarussian exports (around 36% of total exports in 2019).

Today we may be witnessing an inadvertent outcome of these Soviet legacies interacting with a globalized economy and a generational shift in the country. The explosion of the IT sector in Belarus and the new social forces that it brought to the fore are clearly not comfortable with the paternalistic leadership Lukashenka offers. Economic autonomy from the state in a globally integrated IT sector has advanced the cause of social development and pressure for political change, just as classic modernization theory would predict. Lukashenka’s geopolitical swings between Russia and the European Union may also have provoked growing national sentiments and distrust of a leader driven by a political survival logic. A popular desire to replace a long-term autocrat has grown even more acute as a result of the regime’s inept handling of the contemporary health crisis.

Below you will find a selection of articles that we hope will help you appreciate the past and present of Belarusian politics, society, culture, and national identity.

- Harris Mylonas and Gulnaz Sharafutdinova.