Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gbm5v Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T12:42:19.823Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Open Data from Authoritarian Regimes: New Opportunities, New Challenges

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 2020

Abstract

Data availability has long been a challenge for scholars of authoritarian politics. However, the promotion of open government data—through voluntary initiatives such as the Open Government Partnership and soft conditionalities tied to foreign aid—has motivated many of the world’s more closed regimes to produce and publish fine-grained data on public goods provision, taxation, and more. While this has been a boon to scholars of autocracies, we argue that the politics of data production and dissemination in these countries create new challenges. Systematically missing or biased data may jeopardize research integrity and lead to false inferences. We provide evidence of such risks from Tanzania. The example also shows how data manipulation fits into the broader set of strategies that authoritarian leaders use to legitimate and prolong their rule. Comparing data released to the public on local tax revenues with verified internal figures, we find that the public data appear to significantly underestimate opposition performance. This can bias studies on local government capacity and risk parroting the party line in data form. We conclude by providing a framework that researchers can use to anticipate and detect manipulation in newly available data.

Type
Reflection
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

A list of permanent links to Supplemental Materials provided by the authors precedes the References section.

*

Data replication sets are available in Harvard Dataverse at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/AUTKAV

We thank Dan Berliner, Jim Vreeland, and Dan Tavana for their thoughtful comments as well as panel participants at the European Political Science Association Conference 2019.

References

African Arguments. 2019. “Tanzania Search for Missing Millions Raises Questions over $1 Billion—African Arguments.” Retrieved March 26, 2020 (https://africanarguments.org/2019/02/13/tanzania-search-missing-millions-reveals-missing-billion/)Google Scholar
Akinyoade, Akinyinka, Appiah, Eugenia, and Asa, Sola. 2017. “Census-Taking in Nigeria: The Good, the Technical, and the Politics of Numbers.” African Population Studies 31(1): 3383–94. (https://aps.journals.ac.za/pub/article/view/997).10.11564/31-1-997CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alvarez, R. Michael, and Katz, Jonathan N.. 2008. “The Case of the 2002 General Election.” In Election Fraud: Detecting and Deterring Electoral Manipulation, ed. Alvarez, R. Michael, Hall, Thad E., and Hyde, Susan D., 149–61. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
News, BBC. 2019. “John Magufuli - Tanzania’s ‘Bulldozer’ President in Profile.” Retrieved March 26, 2020 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-34670983).Google Scholar
Beber, Bernd, and Scacco, Alexandra. 2012. “What the Numbers Say: A Digit-Based Test for Election Fraud.” Political Analysis 20(2): 211–34.10.1093/pan/mps003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berliner, Daniel. 2014. “The Political Origins of Transparency.” Journal of Politics 76(2): 479–91.10.1017/S0022381613001412CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berliner, Daniel, and Erlich, Aaron. 2015. “Competing for Transparency: Political Competition and Institutional Reform in Mexican States.” American Political Science Review 109(1): 110–28.10.1017/S0003055414000616CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Borkotoky, Kakoli, and Unisa, Sayeed. 2014. “Indicators to Examine Quality of Large Scale Survey Data: An Example through District Level Household and Facility Survey.” PLoS One 9(3): e90113.10.1371/journal.pone.0090113CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chidawali, Habel. 2018. “Revealed: What Gave Dodoma City a Boost in Revenue Earnings.” The Citizen, August 2. Retrieved March 26, 2020 (https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/Land-sale--transparency-boosts-revenue-earnings-for-Dodoma-City/1840340-4694296-14j1m3ez/index.html).Google Scholar
Collord, Michaela. 2019. “Tanzania: The Politics of Being Auditor General.” Retrieved March 26, 2020 (https://presidential-power.com/?p=9503).Google Scholar
Coppedge, Michael, Gerring, John, Knutsen, Carl Henrik, Lindberg, Staffan I., Skaaning, Svend-Erik, Teorell, Jan, Altman, David, Michael Bernhard, M. Steven Fish, Cornell, Agnes, Dahlum, Sirianne, Gjerløw, Haakon, Glynn, Adam, Hicken, Allen, Krusell, Joshua, Lührmann, Anna, Marquardt, Kyle L., McMann, Kelly, Mechkova, Valeriya, Medzihorsky, Juraj, Olin, Moa, Paxton, Pamela, Pemstein, Daniel, Pernes, Josefine, von Römer, Johannes, Seim, Brigitte, Sigman, Rachel, Staton, Jeffrey, Stepanova, Natalia, Sundström, Aksel, Tzelgov, Eitan, Wang, Yi ting, Wig, Tore, Wilson, Steven, and Ziblatt, Daniel. 2018. “V-Dem Dataset v8.”Google Scholar
Cotterill, Joseph. 2019. “Tanzania President Blocks Critical IMF Report on Economy.” Financial Times, April 18. Retrieved March 26, 2020 (https://www.ft.com/content/cb51db44-61f8-11e9-a27a-fdd51850994c)Google Scholar
Davies, Tim G., and Bawa, Zainab Ashraf. 2012. “The Promises and Perils of Open Government Data (OGD).” Journal of Community Informatics 8(2): 18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deckert, Joseph, Myagkov, Mikhail, and Ordeshook, Peter C. 2011. “Benford’s Law and the Detection of Election Fraud.” Political Analysis 19(3): 245–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Devarajan, Shantayanan. 2013. “Africa’s Statistical Tragedy.” Review of Income and Wealth 59: S-S15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elemo, Olufunmbi M. 2018. “Fiscal Federalism, Subnational Politics, and State Creation in Contemporary Nigeria.” In The Oxford Handbook of Nigerian Politics, ed. Levan, Carl and Ukata, Patrick, 189206. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Guriev, Sergei, and Treisman, Daniel. 2015. “How Modern Dictators Survive: An Informational Theory of the New Authoritarianism.” Technical Report National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hollyer, James R., Rosendorff, B. Peter, and Vreeland, James Raymond. 2011. “Democracy and Transparency.” Journal of Politics 73(4): 1191–205.10.1017/S0022381611000880CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hollyer, James R. 2015. “Transparency, Protest, and Autocratic Instability.” American Political Science Review 109(4): 764–84.10.1017/S0003055415000428CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hollyer, James R. 2018. “Transparency, Protest and Democratic Stability.” British Journal of Political Science 49(4): 1251–77.10.1017/S0007123417000308CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jerven, Morten. 2013. Poor Numbers: How We Are Misled by African Development Statistics and What to Do About It. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Jerven, Morten, and Johnston, Deborah. 2015. “Statistical Tragedy in Africa? Evaluating the Data Base for African Economic Development.” Journal of Development Studies 51(2): 111–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelley, Judith G., and Simmons, Beth A.. 2019. “Introduction: The Power of Global Performance Indicators.” International Organization 73(3): 491510.10.1017/S0020818319000146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lall, Ranjit. 2017. “The Missing Dimension of the Political Resource Curse Debate.” Comparative Political Studies 50(10): 1291–324.10.1177/0010414016666861CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lesperance, M., Reed, W.J., Stephens, M.A., Tsao, C., and Wilton, B.. 2016. “Assessing Conformance with Benford’s Law: Goodness-of-Fit Tests and Simultaneous Confidence Intervals.” PloS one 11(3): e0151235.10.1371/journal.pone.0151235CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Little, Andrew T. 2017. “Propaganda and Credulity.” Games and Economic Behavior 102: 224–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lucardi, Adrian. 2016. “Building Support from Below? Subnational Elections, Diffusion Effects, and the Growth of the Opposition in Mexico, 1984–2000.” Comparative Political Studies 49(14): 1855–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lugongo, Bernard. 2019. “Tanzania: Government Move to Dodoma Now At 86 Per Cent.” Tanzania Daily News (Dar es Salaam), February 6. Retrieved March 26, 2020 (https://allafrica.com/stories/201902060401.html)10.5815/ijmsc.2020.04.03CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maerz, Seraphine F. 2016. “The Electronic Face of Authoritarianism: E-Government as a Tool for Gaining Legitimacy in Competitive and Non-Competitive Regimes.” Government Information Quarterly 33(4): 727–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Magaloni, Beatriz. 2006. Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and Its Demise in Mexico. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malanga, Alex. 2019. “LGA Have Collected Only 55 Per Cent of Targeted Revenue.” The Citizen, April 11. Retrieved March 26, 2020 (https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/LGA-have-collected-only-55-per-cent-of-targeted-revenue/1840340-5066774-eaftcr/index.html)Google Scholar
Martinez, Luis R. 2019. “How Much Should We Trust the Dictator’s GDP Growth Estimates?” SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3093296 Social Science Research Network, Rochester, NY: Retrieved March 26, 2020 (https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3093296)Google Scholar
McLellan, Rachael S. 2018. “Why Is Once-Peaceful Tanzania Detaining Journalists, Arresting School- Girls and Killing Opposition Leaders?” Washington Post, November 30. Retrieved March 26, 2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/11/30/why-is-once-peaceful-tanzania-detaining-journalists-arresting-schoolgirls-and-killing-opposition-leaders/)Google Scholar
McLellan, Rachael S. 2020. “The Politics of Local Control in Electoral Autocracies. PhD Dissertation, Politics Department, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ.Google Scholar
Mebane, Walter R. 2010. “Fraud in the 2009 Presidential Election in Iran?” Chance 23(1): 615.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morse, Yonatan L. 2014. “Party Matters: The Institutional Origins of Competitive Hegemony in Tanzania.” Democratization 21(4): 655–77.10.1080/13510347.2013.764285CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morse, Yonatan L. 2018. How Autocrats Compete: Parties, Patrons, and Unfair Elections in Africa. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/9781108596817CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Myagkov, Mikhail, Ordeshook, Peter, and Shakin, Dimitri. 2009. The Forensics of Electoral Fraud. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511626807CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rawski, Thomas G. 2001. “What Is Happening to China’s GDP Statistics?” China Economic Review 12(4): 347–54.10.1016/S1043-951X(01)00062-1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reuter, Ora John, and Gandhi, Jennifer. 2011. “Economic Performance and Elite Defection from Hegemonic Parties.” British Journal of Political Science 41(1): 83110.10.1017/S0007123410000293CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ross, Michael. 2006. “Is Democracy Good for the Poor?” American Journal of Political Science 50(4): 860–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sandefur, Justin, and Glassman, Amanda. 2015. “The Political Economy of Bad Data: Evidence from African Survey and Administrative Statistics.” Journal of Development Studies 51(2): 116–32.10.1080/00220388.2014.968138CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, Ben. 2017. “Has Zitto Revealed Fake News on Tz Economic Growth?” Retrieved March 26, 2020 (https://mtega.com/2017/11/has-zitto-revealed-fake-news-on-tz-economic-growth)Google Scholar
Telesur, . 2017. “Are Mexican States Lying about Crime and Homicide Rates?” Retrieved March 26, 2020 (https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Are-Mexican-States-Lying-About-Crime-and-Homicide-Rates--20170419-0020.html)Google Scholar
Tsai, Lily L. 2008. “Understanding the Falsification of Village Income Statistics.” China Quarterly 196:805–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wallace, Jeremy L. 2016. “Juking the Stats? Authoritarian Information Problems in China.” British Journal of Political Science 46(1): 1129.10.1017/S0007123414000106CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wand, Jonathan N., Shotts, Kenneth W., Sekhon, Jasjeet S., Mebane, Walter R., C. Herron, Michael, and Brady, Henry E.. 2001. “The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida.” American Political Science Review 95(4): 793810.10.1017/S000305540040002XCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weinstein, Laura. 2011. “The Politics of Government Expenditures in Tanzania, 1999–2007.” African Studies Review 54(1): 3357.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
World Bank. 2015. “Tanzania Conference Places Open Data at Center of Development Agenda.” Retrieved March 26, 2020 (https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/09/04/tanzania-conference-places-open-data-at-center-of-development-agenda).Google Scholar
Worley, Heidi. 2015. “Rwanda’s Success in Improving Maternal Health Population Reference Bureau.” Retrieved March 26, 2020 (https://www.prb.org/rwanda-maternal-health).Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Carlitz and McLellan Dataset

Link
Supplementary material: File

Carlitz and McLellan supplementary material

Carlitz and McLellan supplementary material

Download Carlitz and McLellan supplementary material(File)
File 353.4 KB