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Probability Magic Unmasked

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 March 2022

R. D. Rosenkrantz*
Affiliation:
University of South Carolina

Abstract

It has been alleged that Bayesian usage of prior probabilities allows one to obtain empirical statements on the basis of no evidence whatever. We examine this charge with reference to several examples from the literature, arguing, first, that the difference between probabilities based on weighty evidence and those based on little evidence can be drawn in terms of the variance of a distribution. Moreover, qua summaries of vague prior knowledge, prior distributions only transmit the empirical information therein contained and, therefore, their consequences for long-run frequency behavior are “a priori” in at best a Pickwickian sense.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © 1973 by The Philosophy of Science Association

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References

REFERENCES

[1] Fisher, R. A. Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference. Edinburgh: Oliver and Boyd, 1956.Google Scholar
[2] Kyburg, H.Bets and Beliefs.” American Philosophical Quarterly 5 (1958): 5463.Google Scholar
[3] Popper, K. R. The Logic of Scientific Discovery. New York: Basic Books, 1959.Google Scholar