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Retrospection, fairness, and economic shocks: how do voters judge policy responses to natural disasters?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 November 2020

Michael M. Bechtel Open the ORCID record for Michael M. Bechtel [Opens in a new window]  and
Massimo Mannino
Michael M. Bechtel*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO63130-4899, USA Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economic Research, University of St. Gallen, Bodanstrasse 8, CH-9000, St. Gallen, Switzerland
Massimo Mannino
Affiliation:
Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economic Research, University of St. Gallen, Bodanstrasse 8, CH-9000, St. Gallen, Switzerland
*
*Corresponding author. Email: mbechtel@wustl.edu
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Abstract

Which factors explain voters’ evaluations of policy responses to economic shocks? We explore this question in the context of mass preferences over the distribution of disaster relief and evaluate three fairness-based explanations related to affectedness, need, and political ties. We analyze experimental data from an original survey conducted among American citizens and find that affectedness and need are key drivers of voters’ preferred disaster responses. We then compare these patterns with observed disaster relief distributions (1993–2008). The results suggest that observed relief allocations largely mirror the structure of voter preferences with respect to affectedness and need, but not to political ties. These findings have implications for an ongoing debate over the electoral effects of natural disasters, voters’ retrospective evaluations of incumbent performance, and the extent to which divide-the-dollar politics decisions align with mass preferences.

Keywords

comparative politicspolitical behaviorpolitical economypublic opinionvoting behavior
Type
Original Article
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 10 , Issue 2 , April 2022 , pp. 260 - 278
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the European Political Science Association

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