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THE EFFECTS OF SCENARIOS ON DECISION-MAKING QUALITY IN EARLY DESIGN – AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 June 2023

Giácomo Parolin ,
Tim C. McAloone  and
Daniela C. A. Pigosso
Giácomo Parolin*
Affiliation:
Technical University of Denmark (DTU)
Tim C. McAloone
Affiliation:
Technical University of Denmark (DTU)
Daniela C. A. Pigosso
Affiliation:
Technical University of Denmark (DTU)
*
Parolin, Giácomo, DTU, Denmark, gipar@dtu.dk

Abstract

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Scenario planning is often used in design practice to foster futures thinking, reduce uncertainties and improve decision-making. Scenarios are especially relevant for innovation activities in manufacturing companies, such as technology development, a particularly uncertain process where many trade-offs occur. This study is, to the authors knowledge, the first to empirically measure the effect of scenarios in decision-making quality, in the context of technology development. In a quasi-experiment, engineers from a manufacturing company and university students were independently asked to analyse a trade-off situation between environmental and financial aspects of a technology concept, with and without scenarios. The quality of decision-making quality for control and experiment groups was measured through a standardized questionnaire. The results show that scenarios had a positive impact in 6 of the 7 quality decision-making practices (QMDP), although the effect size is small. The results suggest that both expert and novice designers may benefit from using scenario planning when performing early-stage design activities by having awareness of the decision context, a more structured decision process, and clearer decision criteria.

Keywords

Futures studiesTechnology DevelopmentSustainabilityDecision makingEarly design phases
Type
Article
Information
Proceedings of the Design Society , Volume 3: ICED23 , July 2023 , pp. 3375 - 3384
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
Copyright
The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press

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