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On forecasting the onset of Solar Proton Events

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 November 2006

Marlon Núñez
Affiliation:
Department of Languages and Computer Sciences, Universidad de Malaga, Spain email: mnunez@lcc.uma.es, rfm@lcc.uma.es, morales@lcc.uma.es
Raúl Fidalgo
Affiliation:
Department of Languages and Computer Sciences, Universidad de Malaga, Spain email: mnunez@lcc.uma.es, rfm@lcc.uma.es, morales@lcc.uma.es
Rafael Morales
Affiliation:
Department of Languages and Computer Sciences, Universidad de Malaga, Spain email: mnunez@lcc.uma.es, rfm@lcc.uma.es, morales@lcc.uma.es
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Abstract

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A major problem for predicting the onset of Solar Proton Events is the detection of the magnetic connection between the flare and the earth. If there is a magnetic connection, the particles accelerated by a large solar event may impact the earth and produce the onset of a solar energetic proton event. Current physical models cannot predict the onset of a SPE mainly because of the chaotic conditions within the IMF structure. Kiplinger (1995) reported a high correlation between the existence of 10 MeV protons at Earth and a characteristic pattern of X-ray spectral evolution for several associated flares. We propose a practical approach that tries to detect the time intervals of this correlation. Our assumption is that a high correlation betwewn X-ray and protons at Earth is an important symptom of a magnetic connection and may help to prevent Solar Proton Events.

Type
Contributed Papers
Copyright
© 2006 International Astronomical Union