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Predicting the Loci of Solar Eruptions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2018

N. Gyenge  and
R. Erdélyi
N. Gyenge
Affiliation:
Solar Physics and Space Plasmas Research Centre (SP2RC), School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield email: n.g.gyenge@sheffield.ac.uk Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory (DHO), Konkoly Observatory, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Debrecen, P.O.Box 30, H-4010, Hungary Dept. of Astronomy, Eötvös L. University, Pázmány P. sétány 1/A Budapest, H-1117, Hungary
R. Erdélyi
Affiliation:
Solar Physics and Space Plasmas Research Centre (SP2RC), School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield email: n.g.gyenge@sheffield.ac.uk Dept. of Astronomy, Eötvös L. University, Pázmány P. sétány 1/A Budapest, H-1117, Hungary
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Abstract

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The longitudinal distribution of solar active regions shows non-homogeneous spatial behaviour, which is often referred to as Active Longitude (AL). Evidence for a significant statistical relationships between the AL and the longitudinal distribution of flare and coronal mass ejections (CME) occurrences is found in Gyenge et al. 2017 (ApJ, 838, 18). The present work forecasts the spatial position of AL, hence the most flare/CME capable active regions are also predictable. Our forecast method applies Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model for the next 2 years time period. We estimated the dates when the solar flare/CME-capable longitudinal belts face towards Earth.

Keywords

Sun: flaresSun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs)Sun: sunspotsSun: rotation
Type
Contributed Papers
Information
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union , Volume 13 , Symposium S335: Space Weather of the Heliosphere: Processes and Forecasts , July 2017 , pp. 201 - 204
Copyright
Copyright © International Astronomical Union 2018 

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