Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-7drxs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-18T19:38:47.044Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Editor's Introduction for Forecasting the 2013 German Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 June 2013

Bruno Jérôme
Bruno Jérôme*
Affiliation:
University of Paris II, IRGEI-LARGEPA Paris II- FR, guest editor
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

In the past 40 years an extensive literature has grown up around aggregate political economy models of elections, but few articles have focused on the German case. Initially, Kirchgässner (1977; 1991), developed vote-popularity (VP) functions, with the unemployment rate as the dominant economic variable predicting the German ruling parties' performance. Thereafter, using vote functions (VF) from 1961 to 1994, Jérôme, Jérôme-Speziari, and Lewis-Beck (2001) tested the “yardstick” competition existing between French and German economic votes.

Type
Spotlight
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 46 , Issue 3 , July 2013 , pp. 477 - 478
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Gschwend, T., and Norpoth, H.. 2000. “Soll und Haben: Die deutsche ählerschaft rechnet mit den Parteien,” ab. S: 389–409. In Klein, Markus, Jagodzinski, Wolfgang, Mochmann, Ekkehard, und Ohr, Dieter (Hg.): 50 Jahre Empirische Wahlforschung in Deutschland. Entwicklung, Befunde, Perspektiven, Daten. Wiesbaden: Westdeutscher Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jérôme, B., Jérôme-Speziari, V., Lewis-Beck, et M.. 1998. “Prévisions politico—économiques et élections législatives allemandes de septembre 1998.” Cheminement du futur, Le Figaro économie, 10 juillet.Google Scholar
Jérôme, B., Jérôme-Speziari, V., Lewis-Beck, et M.. 2001. “Evaluation économique et vote en France et en Allemagne.” l'Opinion européenne 2001, Presses de sciences Po., avril, 10122.Google Scholar
Jérôme, B., Jérôme-Speziari, V., et Lewis-Beck, M.. 2002. “Pourquoi Stoiber peut (encore) gagner,” Le Figaro, 18 septembre, p. 17.Google Scholar
Jérôme, B., Jérôme-Speziari, V., Lewis-Beck, et M.. 2009. “A Political Economy Forecast for the German Elections (September 27): The end of the Grand Coalition?” Posted on Pollyvote Website, 10 September 2009. See http://www.electionscope.fr/prévision-électorale/elections-législatives-allemandes.Google Scholar
Jérôme-Speziari, V. 2005. “Prévision des élections allemandes de 2005 : vers une grande coalition.” Interview, BFM radio, Septembre 16.Google Scholar
Key, V.O. 1966. The Responsible Electorate. New York: Vintage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kirchgässner, G. 1977. “Wirschaftslage und wähleverhalten.” Politische Vierteljahresschrift 18: 510–36.Google Scholar
Kirchgässner, G. 1991. “Economic Conditions and the Popularity of the West Germany Parties, Before and After the 1982 Government Change.” In Economic and Politics, the Calculus of Support, pp. 103–22. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Norpoth, H., and Gschwend, T.. 2003. “Against All Odds? The Red–Green Victory.” German Political Studies 21: 15–34.Google Scholar
Norpoth, H., and Gschwend, T.. 2010. “The Chancellor Model: Forecasting German Elections.” International Journal of Forecasting 26: 42–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, G., and Whitten, G.. 1993. “A Cross National Analysis of Economic Voting, Taking Account of the Political Context.” American Journal of Political Science 37: 391–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar