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Voter Turnout in U.S. Presidential Elections: An Historical View and Some Speculation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 September 2013

Peter F. Nardulli
Affiliation:
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Jon K. Dalager
Affiliation:
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Donald E. Greco
Affiliation:
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Extract

An examination of presidential voting patterns between 1828 and 1992 for all counties and most large cities in the continental U.S. (approximately 135,000 cases altogether) confirms that there has been a decline in turnout rates since 1960, as most commentators have suggested. For the nation as a whole, turnout in presidential elections dropped 20% from 64% in 1960 to 51% in 1988. Turnout rebounded slightly in 1992 to 55%, due perhaps in large part to the interest generated by Ross Perot.

As striking as these data appear, they must be put in historical perspective to be properly understood. Graph 1 displays the turnout rate for every presidential election between 1828 and 1992 (See Table 1 for a listing of the actual rates). It shows that while turnout in the presidential election of 1988 was the third lowest since 1828, surpassed only in 1920 and 1924 (with turnout rates of 44% in each election), the 1960–1988 decline is not unprecedented in U.S. electoral history. In an earlier 28-year period (1896–1924), turnout rates in presidential elections declined from 72% to 44%. This is a 39% decline in turnout almost double that experienced between 1960 and 1988.

Graph 1 also shows that while most commentators use the 1960 election as a basis for gauging changes in turnout, it is a somewhat misleading baseline. Turnout in 1960 was 64%, which was the highest turnout rate for U.S. presidential elections since 1900. The 1960 election capped a 36-year rise in turnout rates, and represented a 45% increase over the low points registered in 1920 and 1924. Indeed, with the exception of 1944 and 1948, when the nation was preoccupied with World War II and its aftermath, the period between 1928 and 1968 shows a steady increase in presidential turnout rates.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The American Political Science Association 1996

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References

Notes

1. The turnout rate used here is computed as: total votes/eligible voters. Eligible voters were determined by age, race, and sex determinations on a state by state basis. Some states allowed African-American men to vote long before passage of the Civil War Amendments and some states recognized the right of women to vote well before 1920. Finally, a few states allowed people younger than 21 years old to vote before 1970.

The data set used here was constructed to conduct long-term analyses of U.S. electoral behavior. Because Alaska and Hawaii were not added to the union until 1959, the data set does not include them. All references to U.S. totals should be read as reflecting totals for the continental U.S. only.

2. We felt that the forces affecting turnout would differ significantly across different types of cities both because of historical factors and more recent demographic changes. At the same time it proved challenging to differentiate cities over the period of this study. The size and relative ranking of the nation's largest cities varied over time; what are the largest center cities today were not the largest cities fifty years ago. Cities that have long been at the core of a metropolitan area have had different experiences over the past century than cities that have grown rapidly over the post WWII period.

To differentiate among these different large cities, we began by looking at populations aggregated over the twentieth century for all cities that had a population of 200,000 or more in 1990, 69 cities altogether. We aggregated both the city and the metropolitan area. Dividing these cities into two equal categories based on aggregated city population gave us a good basis for differentiating among cities. Six cities were eliminated from the tier 1 grouping because their aggregated metropolitan population did not match with the others in that group (San Jose, Birmingham, El Paso, Sacramento, Memphis, Rochester). At the same time several others were added to the top thirty because they had large metropolitan areas (Minneapolis, St. Paul, Seattle, Newark, Denver). Then the two groupings were examined to see if any “mismatches” appeared. Kansas City appeared to be the only “mismatch,” just barely missing classification in the tier 1 category. Because it appeared to have more in common with the cities classified as tier 1 it was reclassified. The remaining 37 cities were categorized as tier 2 center cities.

3. We collected actual city data for twenty of these cities, usually as far back as 1860. The exceptions were Phoenix, Oakland, San Diego, Miami, Atlanta, Buffalo, San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, and Fort Worth. In the latter cities we used county totals to represent the city.