Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-s2hrs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-13T11:08:07.517Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Performance of rain-fed Aman rice yield in Bangladesh in the presence of climate change

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 September 2017

Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker ,
Khorshed Alam  and
Jeff Gow
Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker*
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh
Khorshed Alam
Affiliation:
School of Commerce, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba QLD, 4350, Australia
Jeff Gow
Affiliation:
School of Commerce, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba QLD, 4350, Australia Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, 7600, South Africa.
*
Author for correspondence: Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker, E-mail: rashid_econ@ru.ac.bd
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This paper uses the framework of the Just–Pope production function to evaluate the impacts of climate change on yields of the rainfed Aman rice crop in Bangladesh. It analyses disaggregated district-level data on climate variables and Aman rice yield over a 48 year time horizon. The results reveal that changes in maximum temperatures have had positive and negative effects on yield in the linear and quadratic functional forms, respectively. However, the elasticity values in the variance function confirm that maximum temperature is risk-increasing for Aman rice while minimum temperature is likely to decrease yield variability. Rainfall has become risk-increasing for Aman rice. Based on three climate change scenarios, this paper also reveals that future climate change is expected to increase the variability of Aman rice yields. Finally, statistically significant dummies for different in-country climate zones require zone-specific adaptation policies to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change.

Keywords

Aman riceBangladeshclimate change
Type
Research Paper
Information
Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems , Volume 34 , Issue 4 , August 2019 , pp. 304 - 312
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adams, PJ, Seinfeld, JH and Koch, DM (1999) Global concentrations of tropospheric sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium aerosol simulated in a general circulation model. Journal of Geophysical Research 104, 13791–13823.Google Scholar
Adams, RM, Rosenzweig, C, Peart, RM, Ritchie, JT, McCarl, BA, Glyer, JD, Curry, RB, Jones, JW, Boote, KJ and Allen, LH (1990) Global climate change and U.S. agriculture. Nature 345, 219–224.Google Scholar
Alam, K (2015) Farmers’ adaptation to water scarcity in drought-prone environments: A case study of Rajshahi District, Bangladesh. Agricultural Water Management, 148, 196–206.Google Scholar
Anderson, J and Hazell, PBR (1987) Variability in Grains Yields: Implications for Agricultural Resource and Policy in Developing Countries. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.Google Scholar
Baltagi, BH (2005) Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. 3rd ed. Wiley, Hoboken.Google Scholar
Barnwal, P and Kotani, K (2010) Impact of Variation in Climate Factors on Crop Yield: A Case of Rice Crop in Andhra Pradesh, India. IUJ Research Institute, International University of Japan, Minami-Uonuma, Japan.Google Scholar
Basak, JK (2010) Effects of Increasing Temperature and Population Growth on Rice Production in Bangladesh: Implications for Food Security. Centre for Research and Action on Development, the Innovators, Unnayan Onneshan, Dhaka, Bangladesh.Google Scholar
Boomiraj, KB, Chakrabarti, PK, Aggarwal, R, Choudhary, R and Chander, S (2010) Assessing the vulnerability of Indian mustard to climate change. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 138, 265–273.Google Scholar
Cabas, J, Weersink, A and Olale, E (2010) Crop yield response to economic, site and climate variables. Climate Change 101, 599–616.Google Scholar
Cameron, AC and Trevedi, PK (2009) Microeconometrics Using Stata. Stata Press, College Station.Google Scholar
Chang, CC (2002) The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture. Agricultural Economics 27, 51–64.Google Scholar
Chen, C and Chang, C (2005) The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: Some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop insurance. Agricultural Economics 33, 503–511.Google Scholar
Chen, C, McCarl, BA and Schimmelpfennig, DE (2004) Yield variability as influenced by climate: A statistical investigation. Climate Change 66, 239–261.Google Scholar
Choi, I (2001) Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance 20, 249–272.Google Scholar
Deschenes, O and Greenstone, M (2007) The economic impacts of climate change: Evidence from agricultural profits and random fluctuations in weather. American Economic Review 97, 354–385.Google Scholar
Downing, TE (1992) Climate change and vulnerable places: Global food security and country studies in Zimbabwe, Kenya, Senegal and Chile. Research Report No. 1. Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford.Google Scholar
Gbetibouo, GA and Hassan, RM (2005) Measuring the economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: A Ricardian approach. Global and Planetary Change 47, 143–152.Google Scholar
Government of Bangladesh (2014) Bangladesh Economic Review. Ministry of Finance, Dhaka, Bangladesh.Google Scholar
Granger, CWJ and Newbold, P (1974) Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics 2, 111–120.Google Scholar
Guiteras, R (2007) The impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. Job Market Paper, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Gujarati, DN (2004) Basic Econometrics. 4th ed. McGraw−Hill, New York.Google Scholar
Haim, D, Shechter, M and Berliner, P (2008) Assessing the impact of climate change on representative field crops in Israel agriculture: A case study of wheat and cotton. Climate Change 86, 425–440.Google Scholar
Hazell, PBR (1984) Sources of increased instability in Indian and U.S. cereal production. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 66, 302–311.Google Scholar
Huq, S, Ahmed, AU and Koudstaal, R (1996) Vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and sea level rise. In Downing, TE (ed.). Climate Change and World Food Security, NATO ASI Series, I37. Springer-Verlag, Berlin. p. 347–379.Google Scholar
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.Google Scholar
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014) Climate Change 2014: The Synthesis Report of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.Google Scholar
Isik, M and Devadoss, S (2006) An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability. Applied Economics 38, 835–844.Google Scholar
Judge, GG, Griffiths, WE, Hill, RC, Lutkepohl, H and Lee, T-C (1985) The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. 2nd ed. Wiley, New York.Google Scholar
Just, RE and Pope, RD (1978) Stochastic specification of production functions and economic implications. Journal of Econometrics 7, 67–86.Google Scholar
Just, RE and Pope, RD (1979) Production function estimation and related risk considerations. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 61, 276–284.Google Scholar
Kabubo-Mariara, J and Karanja, FK (2007) The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach. Global and Planetary Change 57, 319–330.Google Scholar
Karim, Z, Hussain, SG and Ahmed, M (1996) Assessing impact of climate variation on food grain production in Bangladesh. Journal of Water, Air and Soil Pollution 92, 53–62.Google Scholar
Kim, M and Pang, A (2009) Climate change impact on rice yield and production risk. Journal of Rural Development 32, 17–29.Google Scholar
Koundouri, P and Nauges, C (2005) On production function estimation with selectivity and risk considerations. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 30, 597–608.Google Scholar
Kumar, K and Parikh, J (1998) Climate change impacts on Indian agriculture: The Ricardian approach. In Dinar, A, Mendelsohn, R, Everson, R, Parikh, J, Sanghi, A and Kumar, K (eds). Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture, World Bank Technical Paper 402. World Bank, Washington, DC. p. 30–32.Google Scholar
Kumbhakar, SC and Tveteras, R (2003) Risk preferences, production risk, and firm heterogeneity. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 105, 275–293.Google Scholar
Maddala, GS and Wu, S (1999) A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61, 631–652.Google Scholar
Maddison, D (2000) A hedonic analysis of agricultural land prices in England and Wales. European Review of Agricultural Economics 27, 519–532.Google Scholar
Mahmood, R (1998) Air temperature variations and rice productivity in Bangladesh: A comparative study of the performance of the YIELD and the CERES-Rice models. Ecological Modeling 106, 201–212.Google Scholar
Mahmood, R, Legates, DR and Meo, M (2004) The role of soil water availability in potential rainfed rice productivity in Bangladesh: Applications of the CERES-Rice model. Applied Geography 24, 139–159.Google Scholar
McCarl, BA, Villavicencio, X and Wu, X (2008) Climate change and future analysis: Is stationarity dying? American Journal of Agricultural Economics 90, 1241–1247.Google Scholar
Mearns, LO, Rosenzweig, C and Goldberg, R (1997) Mean and variance change in climate scenarios: Methods, agricultural applications, and measures of uncertainty. Climate Change 35, 367–396.Google Scholar
Mendelsohn, R, Nordhaus, W and Shaw, D (1994) The impact of global warming on agriculture: A Ricardian analysis. American Economic Review 84, 753–771.Google Scholar
Ministry of Environment and Forests (2005) National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA). Ministry of Environment and Forests, Dhaka, Bangladesh.Google Scholar
Ministry of Environment and Forests (2009) Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009. Ministry of Environment and Forests, Dhaka, Bangladesh.Google Scholar
Molua, EL (2009) An empirical assessment of the impact of climate change on smallholder agriculture in Cameroon. Global Planetary Change 67, 205–208.Google Scholar
Pattanayak, A and Kumar, KSK (2014) Weather sensitivity of rice yield: Evidence from India. Climate Change Economics 5(4), 1450011.Google Scholar
Paul, BK (1998) Coping mechanisms practised by drought victims (1994/5) in North Bengal, Bangladesh. Applied Geography 18, 355–373.Google Scholar
Peng, S, Huang, J, Sheehy, JE, Laza, RC, Visperas, RM and Zhong, X (2004) Rice yield decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 101, 9971–9975.Google Scholar
Phillips, DL, Lee, JJ and Dodson, RF (1996) Sensitivity of the US corn belt to climate change and elevated CO2. I. Corn and soybean yields. Agricultural Systems 52, 481–502.Google Scholar
Rashid, HE (1991) Geography of Bangladesh. University Press, Dhaka, Bangladesh.Google Scholar
Rashid, MH and Islam, MS (2007) Adaptation to Climate Change for Sustainable Development of Bangladesh Agriculture. Bangladesh Country Paper. Asian and Pacific Centre for Agricultural Engineering and Machinery (APCAEM), Beijing, China.Google Scholar
Rimi, RH, Rahman, SH, Karmaker, S and Hussain, SG (2009) Trend analysis of climate change and investigation on its probable impacts on rice production at Satkhira, Bangladesh. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology 6, 37–50.Google Scholar
Rosenzweig, CE, Tubiello, F, Goldberg, R, Mills, E and Bloomfield, J (2002) Increased crop damage in the U.S. from excess precipitation under climate change. Global Environmental Change 12, 197–202.Google Scholar
Saha, A, Havenner, A and Talpaz, H (1997) Stochastic production function: Small sample properties of ML versus FGLS. Applied Economics 29, 459–469.Google Scholar
Sanghi, A and Mendelsohn, R (2008) The impacts of global warming on farmers in Brazil and India. Global Environmental Change 18, 655–665.Google Scholar
Sarker, MAR (2012) Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production and Farmers’ Adaptation in Bangladesh. PhD Thesis, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Australia.Google Scholar
Sarker, MAR, Alam, K and Gow, J (2012 a) Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data. Agricultural Systems 112, 11–16.Google Scholar
Sarker, MAR, Alam, K and Gow, J (2012 b) A comparison of the effects of climate change on Aus, Aman and Boro rice yields in Bangladesh: Evidence from panel data. In Presented at 41st Annual Conference of Economists, 8–12 July, Melbourne, Australia.Google Scholar
Sarker, MAR, Alam, K and Gow, J (2013 a) How does the yield variability in Aus rice yield respond to climate variables in Bangladesh? Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science 199, 189–194.Google Scholar
Sarker, MAR, Alam, K and Gow, J (2013 b) Assessing the determinants of rice farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change in Bangladesh. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 5(4), 382–403.Google Scholar
Sarker, MAR, Alam, K and Gow, J (2014) Assessing the effects of climate change on rice yields: An econometric investigation using Bangladeshi panel data. Economic Analysis and Policy 44, 405–416.Google Scholar
Schlenker, W and Roberts, MJ (2008) Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Nonlinear Temperature Effects. National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.Google Scholar
Tan, G and Shibasaki, R (2003) Global estimation of crop productivity and the impacts of global warming by GIS and EPIC integration. Ecological Modelling 168, 357–370.Google Scholar
Tveteras, R (1999) Production risk and productivity growth: Some findings for Norwegian salmon aquaculture. Journal of Productivity Analysis 12, 161–179.Google Scholar
Tveteras, R (2000) Flexible panel data models for risky production technologies with an application to salmon aquaculture. Econometric Review 19, 367–389.Google Scholar
Wang, J, Mendelsohn, R, Dinar, A, Huang, J, Rozelle, S and Zhang, L (2009) The impact of climate change on China's agriculture. Agricultural Economics 40, 323–337.Google Scholar
Welch, JJ, Vincent, M, Auffhammer, P, Moya, A, Dobermann, A and Dawe, D (2010) Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107, 14562–14567.Google Scholar
World Bank (2010) World Development Report, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Yu, W, Alam, M, Hassan, A, Khan, AS, Ruane, AC, Rosenzweig, C, Major, DC and Thurlow, J (2010) Climate Change Risk and Food Security in Bangladesh. EarthScan, London, UK.Google Scholar