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Violent conflict and the child quantity–quality tradeoff

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 December 2023

Apsara Karki Nepal ,
Martin Halla  and
Steven Stillman Open the ORCID record for Steven Stillman [Opens in a new window]
Apsara Karki Nepal
Affiliation:
CIMMYT, Lalitpur, Nepal
Martin Halla*
Affiliation:
Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Vienna, Austria IZA – Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany Austrian National Public Health Institute (GÖG), Vienna, Austria
Steven Stillman
Affiliation:
IZA – Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany Department of Economics and Management, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Universitätsplatz 1, 39100 Bozen-Bolzano, Italy Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), London, UK CESifo, Munich, Germany
*
Corresponding author: Martin Halla; Email: martin.halla@wu.ac.at
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Abstract

We show that the exposure to war-related violence increases the quantity of children temporarily, with permanent negative consequences for the quality of the current and previous cohorts. Our empirical evidence is based on Nepal, which experienced a 10 year long civil conflict of varying intensity. We exploit that villages affected by the conflict had the same trend in fertility as non-affected villages prior to the onset of conflict and employ a difference-in-differences estimator. We find that women in affected villages increased their fertility during the conflict by 19%, while child height-for-age declined by 10%. Supporting evidence suggests that the temporary fertility increase was the main pathway leading to reduced child height, as opposed to direct impacts of the conflict.

Keywords

conflictheight-for-ageNepalquantity–quality model of fertilityviolence

JEL classification

D74: Conflict • Conflict Resolution • Alliances • Revolutions H56: National Security and War J13: Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth O10: General

Information

Type
Research Paper
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , Volume 91 , Issue 3 , September 2025 , pp. 343 - 377
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press in association with Université catholique de Louvain

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