A hooking network is built by stringing together components randomly chosen from a set of building blocks (graphs with hooks). The vertices are endowed with “affinities” which dictate the attachment mechanism. We study the distance from the master hook to a node in the network chosen according to its affinity after many steps of growth. Such a distance is commonly called the depth of the chosen node. We present an exact average result and a rather general central limit theorem for the depth. The affinity model covers a wide range of attachment mechanisms, such as uniform attachment and preferential attachment, among others. Naturally, the limiting normal distribution is parametrized by the structure of the building blocks and their probabilities. We also take the point of view of a visitor uninformed about the affinity mechanism by which the network is built. To explore the network, such a visitor chooses the nodes uniformly at random. We show that the distance distribution under such a uniform choice is similar to the one under random choice according to affinities.

Pareto distribution is an important distribution in extreme value theory. In this paper, we consider parallel systems with Pareto components and study the effect of heterogeneity on skewness of such systems. It is shown that, when the lifetimes of components have different shape parameters, the parallel system with heterogeneous Pareto component lifetimes is more skewed than the system with independent and identically distributed Pareto components. However, for the case when the lifetimes of components have different scale parameters, the result gets reversed in the sense of star ordering. We also establish the relation between star ordering and dispersive ordering by extending the result of Deshpande and Kochar [(1983). Dispersive ordering is the same as tail ordering. Advances in Applied Probability 15(3): 686–687] from support $(0, \infty )$ to general supports $(a, \infty )$, $a > 0$. As a consequence, we obtain some new results on dispersion of order statistics from heterogeneous Pareto samples with respect to dispersive ordering.

In the auto insurance industry, a Bonus-Malus System (BMS) is commonly used as a posteriori risk classification mechanism to set the premium for the next contract period based on a policyholder's claim history. Even though the recent literature reports evidence of a significant dependence between frequency and severity, the current BMS practice is to use a frequency-based transition rule while ignoring severity information. Although Oh et al. [(2020). Bonus-Malus premiums under the dependent frequency-severity modeling. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 2020(3): 172–195] claimed that the frequency-driven BMS transition rule can accommodate the dependence between frequency and severity, their proposal is only a partial solution, as the transition rule still completely ignores the claim severity and is unable to penalize large claims. In this study, we propose to use the BMS with a transition rule based on both frequency and size of claim, based on the bivariate random effect model, which conveniently allows dependence between frequency and severity. We analytically derive the optimal relativities under the proposed BMS framework and show that the proposed BMS outperforms the existing frequency-driven BMS. Later, numerical experiments are also provided using both hypothetical and actual datasets in order to assess the effect of various dependencies on the BMS risk classification and confirm our theoretical findings.

We consider a competition involving $r$ teams, where each individual game involves two teams, and where each game between teams $i$ and $j$ is won by $i$ with probability $P_{i,j} = 1 - P_{j,i}$. We suppose that $i$ and $j$ are scheduled to play $n(i,j)$ games and say that the team that wins the most games is the winner of the competition. We show that the conditional probability that $i$ is the winner, given that $i$ wins $k$ games, is increasing in $k$. We bound the tail probability of the number of wins of the winning team. We consider the special case where $P_{i,j} = {v_i}/{(v_i + v_j)}$, and obtain structural results on the probability that team $i$ is the winner. We give efficient simulation approaches for computing the probability that team $i$ is the winner, and the conditional probability given the number of wins of $i$.

We propose and analyze a temporal concatenation heuristic for solving large-scale finite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDP), which divides the MDP into smaller sub-problems along the time horizon and generates an overall solution by simply concatenating the optimal solutions from these sub-problems. As a “black box” architecture, temporal concatenation works with a wide range of existing MDP algorithms. Our main results characterize the regret of temporal concatenation compared to the optimal solution. We provide upper bounds for general MDP instances, as well as a family of MDP instances in which the upper bounds are shown to be tight. Together, our results demonstrate temporal concatenation's potential of substantial speed-up at the expense of some performance degradation.

The joint signatures of binary-state and multi-state (semi-coherent or mixed) systems with i.i.d. (independent and identically distributed) binary-state components are considered in this work. For the comparison of pairs of binary-state systems of different sizes, transformation formulas of their joint signatures are derived by using the concept of equivalent systems and a generalized triangle rule for order statistics. Similarly, for facilitating the comparison of pairs of multi-state systems of different sizes, transformation formulas of their multi-state joint signatures are also derived. Some examples are finally presented to illustrate and to verify the theoretical results established here.

Most of the real-life populations are heterogeneous and homogeneity is often just a simplifying assumption for the relevant statistical analysis. Mixtures of lifetime distributions that correspond to homogeneous subpopulations were intensively studied in the literature. Various distributional and stochastic properties of finite and continuous mixtures were discussed. In this paper, following recent publications, we develop further a mixture concept in the form of the generalized α-mixtures that include all mixture models that are widely explored in the literature. We study some main stochastic properties of the suggested mixture model, that is, aging and appropriate stochastic comparisons. Some relevant examples and counterexamples are given to illustrate our findings.

In this paper, we consider a history-dependent mixed shock model which is a combination of the history-dependent extreme shock model and the history-dependent $\delta$-shock model. We assume that shocks occur according to the generalized Pólya process that contains the homogeneous Poisson process, the non-homogeneous Poisson process and the Pólya process as the particular cases. For the defined survival model, we derive the corresponding survival function, the mean lifetime and the failure rate. Further, we study the asymptotic and monotonicity properties of the failure rate. Finally, some applications of the proposed model have also been included with relevant numerical examples.

In a classical chess round-robin tournament, each of $n$ players wins, draws, or loses a game against each of the other $n-1$ players. A win rewards a player with 1 points, a draw with 1/2 point, and a loss with 0 points. We are interested in the distribution of the scores associated with ranks of $n$ players after ${{n \choose 2}}$ games, that is, the distribution of the maximal score, second maximum, and so on. The exact distribution for a general $n$ seems impossible to obtain; we obtain a limit distribution.

In this article, we derive a closed-form pricing formula for catastrophe equity put options under a stochastic interest rate framework. A distinguishing feature of the proposed solution is its simplified form in contrast to several recently published formulae that require evaluating several layers of infinite sums of $n$-fold convoluted distribution functions. As an application of the proposed formula, we consider two different frameworks and obtain the closed-form formula for the joint characteristic function of the asset price and the losses, which is the only required ingredient in our pricing formula. The prices obtained by the newly derived formula are compared with those obtained using Monte-Carlo simulations to show the accuracy of our formula.

Let $\{Y_{1},\ldots ,Y_{n}\}$ be a collection of interdependent nonnegative random variables, with $Y_{i}$ having an exponentiated location-scale model with location parameter $\mu _i$, scale parameter $\delta _i$ and shape (skewness) parameter $\beta _i$, for $i\in \mathbb {I}_{n}=\{1,\ldots ,n\}$. Furthermore, let $\{L_1^{*},\ldots ,L_n^{*}\}$ be a set of independent Bernoulli random variables, independently of $Y_{i}$'s, with $E(L_{i}^{*})=p_{i}^{*}$, for $i\in \mathbb {I}_{n}.$ Under this setup, the portfolio of risks is the collection $\{T_{1}^{*}=L_{1}^{*}Y_{1},\ldots ,T_{n}^{*}=L_{n}^{*}Y_{n}\}$, wherein $T_{i}^{*}=L_{i}^{*}Y_{i}$ represents the $i$th claim amount. This article then presents several sufficient conditions, under which the smallest claim amounts are compared in terms of the usual stochastic and hazard rate orders. The comparison results are obtained when the dependence structure among the claim severities are modeled by (i) an Archimedean survival copula and (ii) a general survival copula. Several examples are also presented to illustrate the established results.

In this study, we consider option pricing under a Markov regime-switching GARCH-jump (RS-GARCH-jump) model. More specifically, we derive the risk neutral dynamics and propose a lattice algorithm to price European and American options in this framework. We also provide a method of parameter estimation in our RS-GARCH-jump setting using historical data on the underlying time series. To measure the pricing performance of the proposed algorithm, we investigate the convergence of the tree-based results to the true option values and show that this algorithm exhibits good convergence. By comparing the pricing results of RS-GARCH-jump model with regime-switching GARCH (RS-GARCH) model, GARCH-jump model, GARCH model, Black–Scholes (BS) model, and Regime-Switching (RS) model, we show that accommodating jump effect and regime switching substantially changes the option prices. The empirical results also show that the RS-GARCH-jump model performs well in explaining option prices and confirm the importance of allowing for both jump components and regime switching.

Concentrated random variables are frequently used in representing deterministic delays in stochastic models. The squared coefficient of variation ($\mathrm {SCV}$) of the most concentrated phase-type distribution of order $N$ is $1/N$. To further reduce the $\mathrm {SCV}$, concentrated matrix exponential (CME) distributions with complex eigenvalues were investigated recently. It was obtained that the $\mathrm {SCV}$ of an order $N$ CME distribution can be less than $n^{-2.1}$ for odd $N=2n+1$ orders, and the matrix exponential distribution, which exhibits such a low $\mathrm {SCV}$ has complex eigenvalues. In this paper, we consider CME distributions with real eigenvalues (CME-R). We present efficient numerical methods for identifying a CME-R distribution with smallest SCV for a given order $n$. Our investigations show that the $\mathrm {SCV}$ of the most concentrated CME-R of order $N=2n+1$ is less than $n^{-1.85}$. We also discuss how CME-R can be used for numerical inverse Laplace transformation, which is beneficial when the Laplace transform function is impossible to evaluate at complex points.

A probabilistic generative network model with $n$ nodes and $m$ overlapping layers is obtained as a superposition of $m$ mutually independent Bernoulli random graphs of varying size and strength. When $n$ and $m$ are large and of the same order of magnitude, the model admits a sparse limiting regime with a tunable power-law degree distribution and nonvanishing clustering coefficient. In this article, we prove an asymptotic formula for the joint degree distribution of adjacent nodes. This yields a simple analytical formula for the model assortativity and opens up ways to analyze rank correlation coefficients suitable for random graphs with heavy-tailed degree distributions. We also study the effects of power laws on the asymptotic joint degree distributions.

The double-mean-reverting model, introduced by Gatheral [(2008). Consistent modeling of SPX and VIX options. In The Fifth World Congress of the Bachelier Finance Society London, July 18], is known to be a successful three-factor model that can be calibrated to both CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) options. However, the calibration of this model may be slow because there is no closed-form solution formula for European options. In this paper, we use a rescaled version of the model developed by Huh et al. [(2018). A scaled version of the double-mean-reverting model for VIX derivatives. Mathematics and Financial Economics 12: 495–515] and obtain explicitly a closed-form pricing formula for European option prices. Our formulas for the first and second-order approximations do not require any complicated calculation of integral. We demonstrate that a faster calibration result of the double-mean revering model is available and yet the practical implied volatility surface of SPX options can be produced. In particular, not only the usual convex behavior of the implied volatility surface but also the unusual concave down behavior as shown in the COVID-19 market can be captured by our formula.

In this paper, we develop a novel game theoretic model of the interactions between an EDoS attacker and the defender based on a signaling game that is a dynamic game of incomplete information. We then derive the best defense strategies for the network defender to respond to the EDoS attacks. That is, we compute the perfect Bayesian Nash Equilibrium (PBE) of the proposed game model such as the pooling PBE, separating PBE and mixed strategy PBE. In the pooling equilibrium, each type of the attacker takes the same action and the attacker's type is not revealed to the defender, whereas in the separating equilibrium, each type of the attacker uses different actions and hence the attacker's type is completely revealed to the defender. On the other hand, in the mixed strategy PBE, both the attacker and the defender randomize their strategies to optimize their payoffs. Numerical illustration is also presented to show the efficacy of the proposed model.

In this note, we consider dynamic assortment optimization with incomplete information under the capacitated multinomial logit choice model. Recently, it has been shown that the regret (the cumulative expected revenue loss caused by offering suboptimal assortments) that any decision policy endures is bounded from below by a constant times $\sqrt {NT}$, where $N$ denotes the number of products and $T$ denotes the time horizon. This result is shown under the assumption that the product revenues are constant, and thus leaves the question open whether a lower regret rate can be achieved for nonconstant revenue parameters. In this note, we show that this is not the case: we show that, for any vector of product revenues there is a positive constant such that the regret of any policy is bounded from below by this constant times $\sqrt {N T}$. Our result implies that policies that achieve ${{\mathcal {O}}}(\sqrt {NT})$ regret are asymptotically optimal for all product revenue parameters.

This paper investigates the issue of stochastic comparison of multi-active redundancies at the component level versus the system level. Based on the assumption that all components are statistically dependent, in the case of complete matching and nonmatching spares, we present some interesting comparison results in the sense of the hazard rate, reversed hazard rate and likelihood ratio orders, respectively. And we also obtain two comparison results between relative agings of resulting systems at the component level and the system level. Several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results.