Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-9q27g Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-23T00:25:58.587Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Forecasting German Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 September 2021

Mary Stegmaier Open the ORCID record for Mary Stegmaier [Opens in a new window]
Mary Stegmaier*
Affiliation:
University of Missouri
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content.
Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Forecasting the 2021 German Elections
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 55 , Issue 1 , January 2022 , pp. 64 - 68
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Graefe, Andreas. 2015. “German Election Forecasting: Comparing and Combining Methods for 2013.” German Politics 24 (2): 195–204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2017. “The PollyVote’s Long-Term Forecast for the 2017 German Federal Election.” PS: Political Science & Politics 50 (3): 693–96.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2019. “Accuracy of German Federal Election Forecasts, 2013 & 2017.” International Journal of Forecasting 35 (3): 868–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gschwend, Thomas, and Norpoth, Helmut. 2005. “Prognosemodell auf dem Prüf-stand: Die Bundestagswahl 2005.” Politische Vierteljahresschrift 46 (4): 682–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique. 1998. “Allemagne: Prévisions Politico-Économiques et Élections Législatives de Septembre 98.” Le Figaro, July 10:x.Google Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2002. “Pourquoi Stoiber peut (encore) gagner.” Le Figaro, September 18:17.Google Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2013. “A Political-Economy Forecast for the 2013 German Elections: Who to Rule with Angela Merkel?” PS: Political Science & Politics 46 (3): 479–80.Google Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2017. “The Grand Coalition Reappointed but Angela Merkel on Borrowed Time.” PS: Political Science & Politics 50 (3): 683–85.Google Scholar
Kayser, Mark A., and Leininger, Arndt. 2016. “A Predictive Test of Voters’ Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 German Bundestag Election.” German Politics 25 (1): 106–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kayser, Mark A., and Leininger, Arndt. 2017. “A Länder-Based Forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election.” PS: Political Science & Politics 50 (3): 689–92.Google Scholar
Munzert, Simon, Stötzer, Lukas, Gschwend, Thomas, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, and Sternberg, Sebastian. 2017. “Zweitstimme.org. Ein Strukturell-dynamisches Vorhersagemodell Für Bundestagswahlen.” Politische Vierteljahresschrift 58 (3): 418–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut, and Gschwend, Thomas. 2003. “Against All Odds? The Red–Green Victory.” German Political Studies 21 (1): 15–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut, and Gschwend, Thomas. 2010. “The Chancellor Model: Forecasting German Elections.” International Journal of Forecasting 26 (1): 42–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut, and Gschwend, Thomas. 2013. “Chancellor Model Picks Merkel in 2013 German Election.” PS: Political Science & Politics 46 (3): 481–82.Google Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut, and Gschwend, Thomas. 2017. “Chancellor Model Predicts a Change of the Guards.” PS: Political Science & Politics 50 (3): 686–88.Google Scholar
Selb, Peter, and Munzert, Simon. 2016. “Forecasting the 2013 German Bundestag Election Using Many Polls and Historical Election Results.” German Politics 25 (1): 73–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stegmaier, Mary, Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Brown, Lincoln. 2021. “The Economic Voter Decides.” In The Oxford Encyclopedia of Political Decision Making, ed. Redlawsk, David, 477–90. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Stegmaier, Mary, Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Park, Beomseob. 2017. “The VP-Function: A Review.” In The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behavior, eds. Arzheimer, Kai, Evans, Jocelyn, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 584–605. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stegmaier, Mary, and Norpoth, Helmut. 2017. “Election Forecasting.” In Oxford Bibliographies in Political Science, ed. Valelly, Rick. New York: Oxford University Press. www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199756223/obo-9780199756223-0023.xml.Google Scholar