Future developments without further policy interventions

Based on an assessment of the scenario literature, it can be concluded that a continuation of current trends will not lead to fulfilment of selected environmental targets of the SDGs (established but incomplete). While business-as-usual scenarios project some improvement for indicators related to human development, indicators related to the natural resource base are projected to move further in the opposite direction (Figure 5.1). Ongoing population growth and economic development imply that global demand for food, water and energy will strongly increase towards 2050. At the same time, clear improvements are projected in reducing hunger, increasing access to safe drinking water and adequate sanitation, and increasing access to modern energy services, although not fast enough to meet the corresponding SDG targets by 2030. Furthermore, although resource efficiency in production and consumption (in agricultural yields, nutrient use efficiency, water use efficiency and energy efficiency) is projected to improve, mostly in line with historical trends, climate change, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, land degradation, nutrient pollution and ocean acidification are projected to continue at a rapid rate so that the corresponding SDG targets will not be met. ﹛21.4﹜

Under current trends, environmental problems related to global food production will further increase and energy systems will continue to be largely responsible for climate change and air pollution (well established). Global demand for food and primary energy sources is projected to increase by more than 50 per cent between 2015 and 2050. The number of undernourished people is projected to decline and access to modern and clean energy sources is projected to increase, but far from enough to eradicate hunger or to achieve universal access by 2030. Over the last decades, around four-fifths of the increase in food demand has been met by agricultural intensification and one-fifth by an increase in agricultural area. This trend is projected to more or less continue (Figure 5.2). ﹛21.4﹜

Fossil fuels are projected to remain prominent in the world energy system. Overall, global food production will continue to contribute to environmental problems, including increased GHG emissions, land conversion, water demand, nutrient run-off, biodiversity loss and land degradation. Furthermore, energy use is projected to continue to be the most important cause of GHG emissions and air pollutants.