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2 - The Difficulty of Accounting for Reverse Waves

from Part I - Theoretical Considerations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 March 2019

Kurt Weyland
Affiliation:
University of Texas, Austin
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Summary

Established theories have difficulty explaining autocratic reverse waves. Structuralist and institutionalist approaches highlight causal factors that are too specific to capture the wave-like advance of political regression. Common-cause arguments, which postulate a common shock as trigger of reactionary backlash, overlook the complexity of Latin America's reverse wave with its jumble of demonstration and deterrent effects. As regards diffusion approaches, theories that stress vertical regime promotion by great powers fail to convince: The US did not "impose" authoritarianism; instead, domestic actors took the main initiative in overthrowing democracy. Normative arguments are unpersuasive because dictatorship lacked legitimacy in Latin America during the 1960/70s. And rational learning theories cannot explain why political actors commonly deviated from systematic probability assessments and rational interest calculations: Leftists strongly overestimated the ease of revolutionary transformations, while rightists overrated the fragility of the established order, lived in fear of Communism, and therefore succumbed to intense loss aversion.
Type
Chapter
Information
Revolution and Reaction
The Diffusion of Authoritarianism in Latin America
, pp. 26 - 42
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2019

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