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2 - Unpredictably Unstable

from PART I - NOVELTY, NARRATIVES, AND INSTABILITY

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 September 2021

Nicholas Mangee
Affiliation:
Georgia Southern University
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Summary

Chapter 2 is about time-varying relationships driving stock price fluctuations and volatility and how novel events and narrative dynamics may be at play. It provides a survey of the relevant literature on structural change, popular forms, such as regime switching and parameter nonconstancy, and the potential sources of narrative dynamics related to instability. Emphasis is placed on whether transition probabilities are better understood as time-varying and how rare events fit in. Historic events that are good candidates for having catalyzed periods of change between stock prices and fundamentals over the last three decades will be identified. Narrative anecdotes from financial news will be provided in support of the view that much of the instability in the stock market is unforeseeable ex ante. Therefore, probabilistic, and other quantitative rules modeling change in stock market relationships are inappropriate when Knightian uncertainty events are unfolding in real time. Finally, the role of investor sentiment underpinning instability will be discussed through the lens of dictionary-based notions of individual rationality.

Type
Chapter
Information
How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market
Black Swans, Animal Spirits and Scapegoats
, pp. 37 - 63
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2021

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  • Unpredictably Unstable
  • Nicholas Mangee, Georgia Southern University
  • Book: How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market
  • Online publication: 23 September 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108974899.005
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  • Unpredictably Unstable
  • Nicholas Mangee, Georgia Southern University
  • Book: How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market
  • Online publication: 23 September 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108974899.005
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Unpredictably Unstable
  • Nicholas Mangee, Georgia Southern University
  • Book: How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market
  • Online publication: 23 September 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108974899.005
Available formats
×