Cameron’s Brexit gamble made waves in Warsaw. The United Kingdom has been Poland’s long-time ally in the European Union and NATO, and Warsaw did not want to see London leave the EU.

The UK supported the eastern enlargement that paved the way for Polish membership of the EU in 2004. Warsaw and London have also taken a firm stance towards an increasingly assertive Moscow and pushed for sanctions after Russia invaded Crimea. Both countries also worked hand in hand in favour of further liberalization of the single market. Every relationship has its ups and downs, however, and so does the Polish–British partnership. The UK was one of the three EU member states (next to Sweden and Ireland) that opened its labour market for Poles and other central Europeans immediately after enlargement. The sharp inflow of EU migrants from central Europe contributed to an anti-migration narrative in the UK. Poland, under then prime minister Donald Tusk (the current European Council president) and his successor Ewa Kopacz, held it against the British government that it at times portrayed central Europeans in the UK as benefits scroungers.

But these tensions did not stand in the way of a pragmatic collaboration between Warsaw and London. From the earliest period covered in this book, many in Poland felt that Brexit would put this cooperation at risk. For Warsaw, the UK’s departure from the EU would shift the balance of power towards Germany and France. The exit of the largest non-Euro member would also make the non-Euro group less influential and bring increased pressure on Warsaw to adopt the euro. Poland is legally committed to joining the Eurozone, but its public has opposed the accession. Warsaw is in no rush therefore to adopt the common currency.

CHANGE OF GUARD IN POLAND: BAD NEWS FOR THE EU ENTHUSIASTS BUT GOOD NEWS FOR CAMERON

Warsaw wanted to help David Cameron keep the United Kingdom in the European Union but was reluctant to support reforms that would undermine its standing in the EU. Under Tusk and Kopacz, Warsaw relied on a partnership with the EU’s supranational institutions in its European policy.