As stated at the beginning of the introductory chapter, this study is driven by two analytical goals – one empirical and one theoretical. The empirical goal is to assess, as accurately as possible, and explain the upward trend in post-Cold War China–Russia relations. In order to achieve this goal, the study also compares the case of China–Russia alignment with that of US–India alignment to highlight its strengths and weaknesses and assess how it fares vis-à-vis a comparable case. The theoretical goal is to develop a theory-grounded alignment framework and corresponding measurements that draw on the case of China–Russia alignment but are also general enough to travel across different cases, allowing comparative assessments. The below discussion summarizes research outcomes regarding both goals.

China–Russia relations: an ever-consolidating strategic alignment?

The central empirical finding that challenges the existing assessments is that the high level of China–Russia strategic cooperation is not an ad hoc phenomenon. It is not a knee-jerk reaction to the deterioration of US–Russia relations in the aftermath of the Ukraine Crisis or growing US–China tensions in Southeast Asia and beyond. Instead, it is the outcome of a consistent consolidation of China–Russia cooperation since the end of the Cold War. There have been ups and downs in the relationship, such as the temporary stagnation in China–Russia military-technical cooperation in the mid-2000s and the occasional suspension of regular Russia–China Mixed Intergovernmental Commission meetings on Military-Technical Cooperation.