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5 - Empirical investigations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 September 2009

Douglas Lemke
Affiliation:
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
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Summary

This chapter begins the presentation of tests of the multiple hierarchy model's main hypothesis. In general what I am testing is whether the multiple hierarchy model's expectation of power parity and dissatisfaction with the status quo making war more likely is true in minor power regions as well as among the great powers. Specifically, I evaluate the hypothesis that power parity and status quo dissatisfaction increase the probability of wars involving the dominant power in international power hierarchies, be they global or local. Doing so leads to additional empirical analyses.

Units of analysis and the dependent variable

In order to test my hypothesis, I study dyadic combinations within global and local power hierarchies. I analyze whether power parity and status quo dissatisfaction tend to be present when wars are fought, and whether they tend to be absent when peace prevails.

As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the analysis is of dyads, or pairs of states. Unlike most international conflict analyses, however, I do not study all dyads nor do I observe the dyads in my studies annually. My case selection procedure is thus somewhat different from standard analyses. It differs because my theoretical structure, the multiple hierarchy model, necessitates it.

Rather than observing all dyads annually, I observe dyads of the dominant power with each contender within its power hierarchy over decade-long intervals. The multiple hierarchy model hypothesizes that when a dissatisfied challenger achieves parity with the dominant power in its hierarchy, the probability of war within the hierarchy increases.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2002

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  • Empirical investigations
  • Douglas Lemke, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
  • Book: Regions of War and Peace
  • Online publication: 22 September 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511491511.005
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  • Empirical investigations
  • Douglas Lemke, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
  • Book: Regions of War and Peace
  • Online publication: 22 September 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511491511.005
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Empirical investigations
  • Douglas Lemke, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
  • Book: Regions of War and Peace
  • Online publication: 22 September 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511491511.005
Available formats
×