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3 - The Current and Future Environment: An Overall Assessment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 February 2010

Donald J. Kessler
Affiliation:
NASA, Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas
John A. Simpson
Affiliation:
University of Chicago
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Summary

SUMMARY

Orbital debris is of a concern in primarily two regions of Earth orbital space: low Earth orbit and geosynchronous orbit. The hazard to spacecraft from orbital debris in low Earth orbit has already exceeded the hazard from natural meteoroids. This was predicted by models published over 10 years ago, and had been verified by measurements over the last few years. These same models also predict that certain altitudes are at, or near a “critical density, ” where the debris hazard will increase as a result of random collision breakups, independent of future spacecraft operational practices. Consequently, there is a need to make immediate changes in operational practices.

The current hazard in geosynchronous orbit has not likely exceeded the hazard from meteoroids. However, models and measurements of the environment in geosynchronous orbit are inadequate; therefore there is currently not an adequate longterm environment management strategy for geosynchronous orbit. A long-term strategy is required because of the increasing use of geosynchronous orbit plus the fact that objects remain in orbit essentially forever at this altitude. There is a need to understand various strategy options before making significant operational changes.

INTRODUCTION

The unlimited bounds of space could lead one to conclude that we would be incapable of causing an environmental issue in this new frontier.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1994

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