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Chapter 6 - The Japanese current-account surplus and fiscal policy in Japan and the United States

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 October 2009

John B. Shoven
Affiliation:
Stanford University, California
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Summary

Introduction

The purpose of this chapter is to analyze the causes of the recent large surplus in the Japanese current account. Among these causes we pay particular attention to the role played by differences in fiscal policy between Japan and the rest of the world, notably the United States.

In 1984, the Japanese current-account surplus reached a historical high of $35 billion. Given that the two economies were close to business-cycle peaks, a significant part of the current-account surplus must have been noncyclical or structural. This noncyclical portion of the surplus is the focus of this chapter. We start with an analysis of savings and investment behavior in Japan and the United States, rather than with the current account itself. This enables us to show how changes in fiscal policy that alter domestic savings and investment lead to changes in the current account.

The analysis of savings and investment behavior is carried out in terms of a simple two-country model in which two endogenous variables, the real interest rate and the real exchange rate, determine savings and investment. The model abstracts from economic growth; therefore, various stock-flow interactions are not explicitly modeled. These include the effect of the capital stock on investment, the effect of a change in wealth on savings, and the effect of a change in net foreign assets on the exchange rate.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1988

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