Anderson (1994) suggested that ‘Most of the infections that have attracted the greatest attention in the historical literature on human demography and disease are epidemic in character where the infection sweeps through a population … inducing high mortality. To examine their potential impact on human populations a model that combines both epidemiological and demographic processes is ideally required’; we hope to rise to the challenge in this study of the demography of historic populations. A new approach to historical epidemiology is attempted in which we apply the statistical technique of time-series analysis to a range of different data series to elicit quantitative information concerning not only population cycles but also the occurrence and biology of the epidemics of lethal infectious diseases, comparing the findings with mathematical models. In this way, we try to bridge the gap between historical studies of diseases and the current interest in the mathematical modelling of epidemics that occurred in the 20th century.

The publication of The Population History of England 1541–1871 (Wrigley & Schofield, 1981) represented a landmark for the study of historical demography. These authors showed that the parish registers of baptisms, marriages and burials in earlier centuries contain a wealth of valuable information and that, by using relatively simple (although timeconsuming) techniques, it is possible to extract detailed demographic data and to reconstruct the population history. Much can be achieved by aggregative analysis but to determine many of the demographic characteristics it is necessary to employ family reconstitution.