Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-vpsfw Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-17T11:47:25.454Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

References

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 December 2009

William Bernhard
Affiliation:
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
David Leblang
Affiliation:
University of Colorado, Boulder
Get access

Summary

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Chapter
Information
Democratic Processes and Financial Markets
Pricing Politics
, pp. 237 - 254
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2006

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alesina, A., Broeck, M., Prati, A. and Tabellini, G. (1992). Default risk on government debt in OECD countries. Economic Policy, 15, 427–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, A., Grilli, V. and Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (1994). The political economy of capital controls. In Capital Mobility: the Impact on Consumption, Investment, and Growth, eds. Leiderman, L. and Razin, A.. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Alesina, A. and Rosenthal, H. (1995). Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, A. and Roubini, N. (1997). Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Alesina, A., Roubini, N. and Cohen, G. (1993). Electoral business cycles in industrial democracies. European Journal of Political Economy, 23, 1–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, A. and Sachs, J. (1988). Political parties and the business cycle in the United States: 1948–1984. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 20(1), 63–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alexander, C. (2001). Market Models: A Guide to Financial Data Analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Aliber, R. Z. (1973). The interest rate parity theorem: a reinterpretation. Journal of Political Economy, 81, 1451–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allison, P. (1984). Event History Analysis. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alt, J. and Chrystal, K. A. (1983). Political Economics. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Alt, J. and King, G. (1994). Transfers of governmental power: the meaning of time dependence. Comparative Political Studies, 27(2), 190–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alt, J. (1979). The Politics of Economic Decline. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ammer, J. and Mei, J. (1996). Measuring international economic linkages with stock market data. Journal of Finance, 51, 1743–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andrews, D. (1994). Capital mobility and state autonomy: toward a structural theory of international monetary relations. International Studies Quarterly, 38, 193–218.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bachman, D. (1992). The effect of political risk on the forward exchange bias: the case of elections. Journal of International Money and Finance, 11, 208–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bailey, R. (2005). The Economics of Financial Markets. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baillie, R. T. and McMahon, P. C. (1989). The Foreign Exchange Market: Theory and Econometric Evidence. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ballie, R. and Bollerslev, T. (1989). The message in daily exchange rates: a conditional-variance tale. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 7, 297–305.Google Scholar
Baillie, R., Bollerslev, T. and Mikkelsen, H. (1996). Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 74, 3–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barberis, N. and Thaler, R. (2002). A survey of behavioral finance. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 9222.Google Scholar
Barr, D. G. and Priestley, R. (2002). Expected Returns, Risk and the Integration of International Bond Markets, Manuscript, Imperial College, London.Google Scholar
Barro, R. and Gordon, D. (1983). Rules, discretion, and reputation in a model of monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, 101–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bates, R. (2001). Prosperity and Violence: The Political Economy of Development. New York: W.W. Norton and Company.Google Scholar
Beck, N. (1991). Comparing dynamic specifications: the case of presidential approval. Political Analysis, 3, 51–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, N. (1997). Modeling Space and Time: The Event History Approach, Manuscript.Google Scholar
Beck, N., Katz, J. and Tucker, R. (1998). Beyond ordinary logit: taking time seriously in binary time-series-cross-section models. American Journal of Political Science, 42( 4), 1260–1288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bera, A. and Higgins, M. K. (1993). A survey of ARCH models: properties, estimation, and testing. Journal of Economic Surveys, 7, 305–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berk, R. (1990). A primer on robust regression. In Modern Methods of Data Analysis, eds. Fox, J. and Long, J. S.. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Press.Google Scholar
Bernhard, W. (2001). Exchange Rate Stability and Political Accountability in the European Monetary System, Typescript, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.Google Scholar
Bernhard, W. (2002). Banking on Reform: Political Parties and Central Bank Independence in the Industrial Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernhard, W. and Leblang, D. (2002a). Political processes and foreign exchange markets: the forward exchange rate bias. American Journal of Political Science, 46(2), 316–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernhard, W. and Leblang, D. (2002b). Political parties and monetary commitments. International Organization, 56(4), 803–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernhard, W. and Leblang, D. (2006). Polls and pounds: political expectations and exchange rate volatility in Britain. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 1(1), 26–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernoth, K., Hagen, J. and Schuknecht, L. (2004). Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market. European Central Bank, Working Paper 369 (June).Google Scholar
Bernstein, W. (2004). The Birth of Plenty: How the Prosperity of the Modern World was Created. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Black, F. (1972). Capital market equilibrium with restricted borrowing. Journal of Business, 45, 444–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Block, F. (1977). The ruling class does not rule: notes on the Marxist theory of the state. Socialist Revolution, 33, 6–28.Google Scholar
Blomberg, S. B. and Hess, G. (1996). Politics and foreign exchange rate forecasts. Research Working Paper 96–02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.Google Scholar
Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollerslev, T. (1990). Modeling the coherence in short-run nominal exchange rates: a multivariate generalized arch model. Review of Economics and Statistics, 72, 498–505.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollerslev, T., Chou, R. Y. and Kroner, K. F. (1992). ARCH modeling in finance. Journal of Econometrics, 52, 5–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollerslev, T. and Mikkelsen, H. (1996). Modeling and pricing long-memory in stock market volatility. Journal of Econometrics, 73, 151–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollerslev, T. and Rossi, P. (1996). Introduction. In Modeling Stock Market Volatility: Bridging the Gap to Continuous Time, ed. Rossi, P.. San Diego, CA: The Academic Press.Google Scholar
Bossaerts, P. (2002). The Paradox of Asset Pricing. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, J. and Smith, R. M. (1996). The dynamics of aggregate partisanship. American Political Science Review, 90(3), 352–371.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boyer, B. H., Gibson, M. S. and Loretan, M. (1997). Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations. International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Google Scholar
Brace, P. and Hinckley, B. (1991). The structure of presidential approval. Journal of Politics, 53(4), 993–1017.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brace, P. and Hinckley, B. (1992). Follow the Leader: Opinion Polls and Modern Presidencies. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Bracker, K., Docking, D. S. and Koch, P. (1999). Economic determinants of evolution in international stock market integration. Journal of Empirical Finance, 6, 1–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Branson, R. and Henderson, D. (1985). The specification and influence of asset markets. In Handbook of International Economics, Volume II, eds. Jones, R. and Kenen, P.. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
Brehm, J. and Gronke, P. (1994). Modeling volatile approval: a modified ARCH approach to presidential approval ratings. Paper presented at APSA, New York.Google Scholar
Brennan, R. and Prediger, D. (1981). Coefficient kappa: some uses, misuses, and alternatives. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 41, 687–699.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Britton, A. (1991). Macroeconomic Policy in Britain 1974–1987. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brooks, C. (2002). Introductory Econometrics for Finance. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brooks, R. and del Negro, M. (2002). The Rise in Comovement Across National Stock Markets: Market Integration or Global Bubble? IMF Working Paper WP/02/147.Google Scholar
Brown, S. and Warner, J. (1980). Measuring security price performance. Journal of Financial Economics, 8, 205–258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, S. and Warner, J. (1985). Using daily stock returns: the case of event studies. Journal of Financial Economics, 14, 3–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Budge, I. and Kingemann, H.-D. (2001). Finally! Comparative over-time mapping of party policy movement. In Mapping Policy Preferences: Estimates for Parties, Electors and Governments 1945–1998, ed. Budge, et al. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 19–50.Google Scholar
Budge, I., Kingemann, H.-D., Volkens, A., Bara, J. and Tanenbaum, E. (2001). Mapping Policy Preferences: Estimates for Parties, Electors, and Governments 1945–1998. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Butler, D. and Butler, G. (2000). Twentieth-Century British Political Facts 1900–2000, 8th edition. New York: St. Martin's Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cameron, C. (2000). Veto Bargaining: Presidents and the Politics of Negative Power. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cameron, D. (1984). Social democracy, corporatism, labour quiescence and the representation of economic interest in advanced capitalist society. In Order and Conflict in Contemporary Capitalism, ed. Goldthorpe, J. H.. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
Campbell, J. Y. (2002). Consumption-based asset pricing. In Handbook of the Economics of Finance, eds. Constantinides, G., Harris, M. and Stulz, R. M.. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W. and MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). The Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Campbell, J. Y. and Shiller, R. J. (1987). Cointegration and tests of present value models. Journal of Political Economy, 95, 1062–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, J. Y. and Shiller, R. J. (1991). Yield spreads and interest rate movements: a bird's eye view. The Review of Economic Studies, 58, 495–514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canova, F. and Nicolo, G. (2003). The equity premium and the risk-free rate: an investigation across time and countries. IMF Staff Papers, 50, 222–249.Google Scholar
Castles, F. and Mair, P. (1984). Left-right political scales: some expert judgments. European Journal of Political Research, 12, 83–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cavaglia, S., Brithgman, C. and Aked, M. (2000). The increasing importance of industry factors. Financial Analysts Journal, 56, 41–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Charemza, W. W. and Deadman, D. F. (1992). New Directions in Econometric Practice. Aldershot, England: Edward Elgar.Google Scholar
Chen, N.-F. (1983). Some empirical tests of the theory of arbitrage pricing. The Journal of Finance, 38, 1393–1414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, N.-F. (1991). Financial investment opportunities and the macroeconomy. Journal of Finance, 46, 529–554.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, N.-F., Roll, R. and Ross, S. A. (1986). Economic forces and the stock market. Journal of Business, 59, 383–403.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cheung, Y.-W. and Lai, K. (1998). Macroeconomic Determinants of Long-Term Stock Market Comovements Among Major EMS Countries, Manuscript, Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz.Google Scholar
Christodoulakis, N. and Kalyvitis, S. (1997). Efficiency testing revisited: a foreign exchange market with Bayesian learning. Journal of International Money and Finance, 16, 367–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, P. (1973). A subordinated stochastic process model with finite variance for speculative prices. Econometrica, 41, 135–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, H., Ho, K. and Stewart, M. (2000). Major's lessor (not minor) effects: Prime Ministerial approval and governing party support in Britain since 1979. Electoral Studies, 19, 255–273.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, H. and Stewart, M. (1995). Economic evaluations, prime ministerial approval and governing party support: rival models reconsidered. British Journal of Political Science, 25, 145–170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, H. D., Stewart, M. C. and Whiteley, P. F. (1998). New models for new labour: the political economy of labour party support, January 1992–April 1997. American Political Science Review, 92(3), 559–575.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cobham, D., ed. (1994). European Monetary Upheavals. Manchester: Manchester University Press.Google Scholar
Cochrane, J. H. (2001). Asset Pricing. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Codogno, L., Favero, C. and Missale, A. (2003). Yield Spreads on EMU Government Bonds. Economic Policy, 18, 503–532.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Copeland, L. and Jones, S. (2001). Default probabilities of European sovereign debt: market-based estimates. Applied Economic Letters, 8, 321–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corsetti, G., Pericoli, M. and Sbracia, M. (2002). Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion. Working Paper, Department of Economics, Yale University.Google Scholar
Cox, G. (1987). Electoral equilibria under alternative voting institutions. American Journal of Political Science, 31, 82–108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, G. (1989). Undominated candidate strategies under alternative voting rules. Mathematical Modelling, 12, 451–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cukierman, A., Webb, S. B. and Neyapti, B. (1992). Measuring the independence of central banks and its effect on policy outcomes. World Bank Economic Review, 6(3), 353–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cuthbertson, K. (1996). Quantitative Financial Economics: Stocks, Bonds and Foreign Exchange. New York: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Dacorogna, M. M., Gencay, R., Muller, U. A., Olsen, R. B. and Pictet, O. (2001). An Introduction to High Frequency Finance. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
DeBoef, S. (2000). Modeling equilibrium relationships: error correction models with strongly autoregressive data. Political Analysis, 9, 78–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeVries, C. (1992). Stylized facts of nominal exchange rate returns. In Handbook of International Macroeconomics, ed. Ploeg, F.. London: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Diebold, F. X., Lee, J.-H. and Weinbach, G. C. (1994). Regime-switching with time varying transition probabilities. In Nonstationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration, ed. Hargreaves, C.. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 283–302.Google Scholar
Diebold, F. and Nerlove,, M. (1989). The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: a multivariate latent factor ARCH model. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4, 1–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Domowitz, I. and Hakkio, C. (1985). Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market. Journal of International Economics, 19, 47–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dooley, M. P. and Isard, P. (1980). Capital controls, political risk, and deviations from interest-rate parity. Journal of Political Economy, 88, 370–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Democracy. Boston: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Drazen, A. (2000). Political Economy in Macroeconomics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Duffie, D. (2001). Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory, 3rd edition. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, B. and Mody, A. (2004). Do collective action clauses raise borrowing costs. The Economic Journal, 114, 247–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, B., Rose, A. and Wyplosz, C. (1995). Exchange market mayhem: the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks. Economic Policy, 21, 249–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elton, E. J., Gruber, M. J., Brown, S. J. and Goetzmann, W. N. (2003). Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis, 6th edition. New York: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Enders, W. (2004). Applied Econometric Time Series, 2nd edition. New York: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Engel, C. (1994). Can the Markov-switching model forecast exchange rates?Journal of International Economics, 36, 151–165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engel, C. (1996). The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: a survey of recent evidence. Journal of Empirical Finance (June), 123–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engle, R. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50, 987–1007.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engle, R. (1984). Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier tests in econometrics. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 2, eds. Griliches, Z. and Intriligator, M.. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
Engle, R. (1996). The econometrics of ultra-high frequency data. NBER Paper 5816.Google Scholar
Engle, R. F., Lilien, D. M. and Robins, R. P. (1987). Estimating time varying risk premia in the term structure: the ARCH-M model. Econometrica, 55, 391–408.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Epps, T. and Epps, M. (1976). The stochastic dependence of security price changes and transactions volumes: implications for the mixture-of-distributions hypothesis. Econometrica, 44, 305–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, G. and Honkapohja, S. (2001). Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. (1970). Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance, 25, 383–417.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. (1984). Forward and spot exchange rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 14, 319–338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. (1991). Efficient capital markets II. Journal of Finance, 46, 1575–1618.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. L., Jensen, F. M. and Roll, R. (1969). The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International Economics Review, 10, 1–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. F. and French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Finance, 47, 426–465.Google Scholar
Fama, E. and MacBeth, J. (1973). Risk, return and equilibrium: empirical tests. Journal of Political Economy, 71, 607–636.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farrell, D. M. (2001). Electoral Systems: A Comparative Introduction. New York: Palgrave.Google Scholar
Fiorina, M. (1981). Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Flandreau, M., Cacheux, L. and Zumer, F. (1998). Stability without a pact? Lessons from the European gold standard. 1880–1914. Economic Policy, 26, 117–62.Google Scholar
Forbes, K. J. and Chinn, M. D. (2003). A decomposition of global linkages in financial markets over time, Working Paper 4413–03. MIT Sloan School of Management.Google Scholar
Forbes, K. J. and Chinn, M. D. (2004). A decomposition of global linkages in financial markets over time. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86, 705–722.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forbes, J. and Rigobon, R. (2002). No contagion, only interdependence: measuring stock market co-movements. Journal of Finance, 999, 900–909.Google Scholar
Foster, F. D. and Vishwanathan, S. (1995). Can speculative trading explain the volume–volatility relation?Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, October, 379–396.Google Scholar
Frankel, J. and Mussa, M. (1985). Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments. In Handbook of International Economics, Volume II, eds. Jones, R. and Kenen, P.. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
Frankel, J. A. and Engel, C. M. (1984). Do asset demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns? A six currency test. Journal of International Economics, 17, 309–323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frankel, J. A. and Schmukler, S. L. (1997). Country funds and asymmetric information. Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-087. University of California at Berkeley.Google Scholar
Franklin, C. (2001). Pre-Election Polls in Nation and State: a Dynamic Bayesian Hierarchical Model. Presented at the 2001 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco.Google Scholar
Franses, P. H. and Dijk, D. (2000). Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franzese, R. (2002). Electoral and partisan cycles in economic policies and outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science, 5, 369–421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freeman, J. R., Hays, J. C. and Stix, H. (1999). The Electoral Information Hypothesis Revisited, Manuscript, University of Michigan.Google Scholar
Freeman, J. R., Hays, J. C. and Stix, H. (2000). Democracy and markets: the case of exchange rates. American Journal of Political Science, 44(3), 449–468.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
French, K. and Poterba, J. (1991). Investor diversification and international equity markets. American Economic Review, 81, 222–226.Google Scholar
Frieden, J. (1991). Invested interests: the politics of national economic policies in a world of global finance. International Organization, 45, 425–451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frieden, J. (1999). Sectoral Interests and European Monetary Integration: An Empirical Assessment, Typescript, Harvard University.Google Scholar
Friedman, M. (1953). The case for flexible exchange rates. In Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Froot, K. and Frankel, J. (1989). Forward discount bias: is it an exchange risk premium?Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104, 139–161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Froot, K. and Frankel, J. (1990). Anomalies: foreign exchange. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4, 179–192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gallant, A. R, Rossi, P. E. and Tauchen, G. (1992). Stock prices and volume. Review of Financial Studies, 5, 199–242.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garcia, R. (1998). Asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio test in a Markov-switching model. International Economic Review, 39, 763–788.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garrett, G. (1992). The political consequences of Thatcherism. Political Behavior, 14, 361–382.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garrett, G. (1995). Capital mobility, trade, and the domestic politics of economic policy. International Organization, 49(4), 657–687.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartner, M. and Wellershoff, K. W. (1995). Is there an election cycle in stock market returns?International Review of Economics and Finance, 4, 387–410.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gemmill, G. (1992). Political risk and market efficiency: tests based on British stock and options markets in the 1987 election. Journal of Banking and Finance, 16, 211–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gemmill, G. (1995). Stockmarket behavior and information in British elections. Working Paper, City University Business School.Google Scholar
Gerber, A. and Green, D. (1998). Rational learning and partisan attitudes. American Journal of Political Science, 42, 794–818.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glosten, L. R., Jaganathan, R. and Runkle, D. E. (1993). On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks. The Journal of Finance, 48, 1779–1801.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodman, J. and Pauly, L. B. (1993). The obsolescence of capital controls? Economic management in an age of global markets. World Politics, 46, 50–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Granato, J. (1996). The effect of policy-maker reputation and credibility on public expectations: an application to macroeconomic policy changes. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 8(4), 449–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Granato, J. and Wong, M. C. S. (2005). The Role of Policymakers in Business Cycle Fluctuations. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Green, D. and Gerber, A. (2000). Samplemiser 4.0.Google Scholar
Green, D., Gerber, A. and DeBoef, S. (1999). Tracking opinion over time: a method for reducing sampling error. Public Opinion Quarterly, 63, 178–192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green, D., Palmquist, B. and Schickler, E. (2002). Partisan Hearts and Minds. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Greene, W. (2003). Econometric Analysis, 5th edition. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Griffin, J. M. and Karolyi, G. A. (1998). Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies. Journal of Financial Economics, 59, 351–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Griffin, J. M., Nardari, F. and Stulz, R. M. (2002). Daily cross-border equity flows: published or pulled? Ohio State University: Dice Working Paper No. 2002–6.Google Scholar
Grilli, V., Masciandaro, D. and Tabellini, G. (1991). Political and monetary institutions and public finance policies in the industrialized democracies. Economic Policy, 10(October), 342–92.Google Scholar
Gros, D. and Thygesen, N. (1998). European Monetary Integration: from the European Monetary System to European Monetary Union, 2nd edition. New York: Longman Press.Google Scholar
Gujarati, D. (2003). Basic Econometrics, 4th edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Haggard, S. and McCubbins, M., eds. (2001). Presidents, Parliaments and Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hall, P. (1986). Governing the Economy: the Politics of State Intervention in Britain and France. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Hallerberg, M. (2004). Domestic Budgets in a United Europe: Fiscal Governance from the End of Bretton Woods to EMU. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Hallerberg, M. and von Hagen, J. (1998). Electoral institutions, cabinet negotiations, and budget deficits within the European Union. In Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, eds. Poterba, J. and Hagen, J., pp. 209–32. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Hallwood, C. P. and MacDonald, R. (1994). International Money and Finance, 2nd edition. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.Google Scholar
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57, 357–384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press: Princeton.Google Scholar
Hamilton, J. D. and Susmel, R. (1994). Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime. Journal of Econometrics, 64, 307–333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, B. E. (1992). The likelihood ratio test under non-standard conditions: testing the Markov switching model of GNP. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 7, S61–S82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, B. E. (2001). The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Changes in U.S. Labor Productivity. Typescript, University of Wisconsin.Google Scholar
Hansen, L. (1982). Large sample properties of generalized method of moments estimators. Econometrica, 50, 1029–1054.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, L. and Hodrick, R. (1980). Forward exchange rates as optimal predictors of future spot rates: an econometric analysis. Journal of Political Economy, 88, 829–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hanushek, E. A. (1974). Efficient estimators for regressing regression coefficients. The American Statistician, 28, 66–67.Google Scholar
Harvey, C., Solnik, B. and Zhou, G. (1994). What determines expected international asset returns? NBER Working Paper.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hausman, J. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46, 1251–1271.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heckman, J. (1979). Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica, 47, 153–161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helleiner, E. (1994). States and the Reemerging of Global Finance: From Bretton Woods to the 1990s. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Herron, M. (2000). Estimating the economic impact of political party competition in the 1992 British election. American Journal of Political Science, 44(3), 326–337.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herron, M., Lavin, J., Cram, D. and Silver, J. (1999). Measurement of political effects in the U.S. economy: a study of the 1992 presidential election. Economics and Politics, 11, 51–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heston, S. L. and Rouwenhorst, K. G. (1994). Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?The Journal of Finance, 36, 3–27.Google Scholar
Treasury, H. M. (2003). EMU and the Cost of Capital. London: Bank of England.Google Scholar
Hibbs, D. A. (1987). The Political Economy of Industrial Democracies. Harvard Univ. Press: Cambridge, Mass.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hodrick, R. J. (1987). The Empirical Evidence on the Efficiency of Forward and Futures Foreign Exchange Markets. London: Harwood Academic Publishers.Google Scholar
Howison, S. and Lamper, D. (2000). Trading volume in models of financial derivatives, Working Paper, Center for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, University of Oxford.Google Scholar
Huber, J. (1996a). Rationalizing Parliament: Legislative Institutions and Party Politics in France. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, J. (1996b). The vote of confidence in parliamentary democracies. American Political Science Review, 90(2), 269–282.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, J. and Gabel, M. (2000). Putting parties in their place: inferring party left-right ideological positions. American Journal of Political Science, 44(1), 94–103.Google Scholar
Ilmanen, A. (1996). When do bond markets reward investors for interest rate risk? Journal of Portfolio Management, Winter.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ito, T. (1986). Capital controls and covered interest parity between the Yen and the Dollar. Economic Studies Quarterly, 37, 223–40.Google Scholar
Jackson, S. (1995). Re-thinking equilibrium presidential approval: Markov-switching error correction, Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Political Methodology Section, Bloomington, IN.Google Scholar
Jacobs, L. R. and Shapiro, R. Y. (2000). Politicians Don't Pander: Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Jones, P. and Hudson, J. (1996). The quality of political leadership: a case study of John Major. British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), 229–244.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jorion, P. (1992). Term premiums and the integration of the Eurocurrency markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 11, 17–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jowell, R., Hedges, B., Lynn, P., Farrant, G. and Heath, A. (1993). The 1992 British election: the failure of the polls. Public Opinion Quarterly, 57(Summer), 238–263.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Karolyi, G. A. and Stulz, R. M. (2002). Are financial assets priced locally or globally? In Handbook of the Economics of Finance, eds. M. Harris, G. Constantinides and Stulz, R. M.. North Holland.Google Scholar
Karpoff, J. (1987). The relation between price changes and trading volume: a survey. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 22, 109–126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kavanaugh, D. (1987). Thatcherism and British Politics: The End of Consensus?New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Kennedy, P. (1998). A Guide to Econometrics, 4th edition. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Kim, C.-J., Morley, J. C. and Nelson, C. R. (2002). Is there a Positive Relationship Between Stock Market Volatility and the Equity Premium? Manuscript, Washington University, St. Louis.Google Scholar
King, A., ed. with Wybrow, R. J. (2001). British Public Opinion: 1937–2000, The Gallup Polls. London: Politico's Publishing.
King, G., Alt, J., Burns, N. and Laver, M. (1990). A unified model of cabinet dissolution in parliamentary democracies. American Journal of Political Science, 34(3), 846–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, G. and Zeng, L. (2001). Logistic regression in rare events data. Political Analysis, 9, 137–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, M., Sentant, E. and Wadhawani, S. (1994). Volatility and links between stock markets. Econometrica, 62, 901–933.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, R. G. and Kurmann, A. (2002). Expectations and the term structure of interest rates: evidence and implications. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, 88, 49–95.Google Scholar
Kirk, R. E. (1995). Experimental Design: Procedures for the Behavioral Sciences. Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks-Cole.Google Scholar
Kmenta, J. (1986). Elements of Econometrics, 2nd edition. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Kose, M. A., Otrok, C. and Whiteman, C. (2003). Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles, Manuscript, International Monetary Fund.Google Scholar
Kothari, S. P. and Shanken, J. (1992). Stock return variation and excess dividends: a time-series and cross-sectional analysis. Journal of Financial Economics, 31, 177–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koutmos, G. and Theodossiou, P. (1994). Time-series properties and predictability of Greek exchange rates. Managerial and Decision Economics, 15, 159–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krasker, W. (1980). The ‘peso problem’ in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets. Journal of International Economics, 6, 269–276.Google Scholar
Krehbiel, K. (1998). Pivotal Politics. University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kydland, F. and Prescott, E. (1977). Rules rather than discretion: the inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy, 85, 473–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lamoureux, C. and Lastrapes, W. (1990). Heteroskedasticity in stock return data: volume versus GARCH effects. Journal of Finance, 45, 221–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laux, P. and Ng, L. (1993). The sources of GARCH: empirical evidence from an intraday returns model incorporating systematic and unique risks. Journal of International Money and Finance, 12, 543–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laver, M. (2001). Estimating the Policy Positions of Political Actors. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Laver,, M. and Budge, I., eds. (1991). Party and Coalition Policy in Western Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Laver, M. and Schofield, N. (1998). Multiparty Government: The Politics of Coalition in Europe. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laver, M. and Shepsle, K. (1996). Making and Breaking Governments. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leblang, D. and Bernhard, W. (2000). The politics of speculative attacks in industrial democracies. International Organization, 54(2), 291–324.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leblang, D. and Bernhard, W. (2006). Parliamentary politics and foreign exchange markets: the world according to GARCH. International Studies Quarterly (March) 50(1): 69–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leblang, D. and Mukherjee, B. (2004). Presidential elections and the stock market: comparing Markov-switching and fractionally integrated GARCH models. Political Analysis, Summer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leblang, D. and Mukherjee, B. (2005). Government partisanship, elections and the stock market: examining American and British stock returns, 1930–2000. American Journal of Political Science (October) 49, 781–803.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lemmen, J. and Goodhart, C. (1999). Government bond markets: a panel data econometric analysis. Eastern Economic Journal, 25, 77–107.Google Scholar
Lewis, K. (1995). Puzzles in international financial markets. In Handbook of International Economics, Volume III, eds. Grossman, G. and Rogoff, K.. Elsevier Science.Google Scholar
Lewis, K. K. (1999). Trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption. Journal of Economic Literature, 37, 571–608.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, M. (1988). Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, M., Norpoth, H. and Lafay, J.-D., eds. (1991). Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Li, L. (2002). Macroeconomic Factors and the Correlation of Stock and Bond Returns, Manuscript, Department of Economics, Yale University.Google Scholar
Lijphart, A. (1984a). Measures of cabinet durability: a conceptual and empirical evaluation. Comparative Political Studies, 17(2), 265–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, A. (1984b). Democracies. New Haven: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, A. (1999). Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-Six Countries. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Lin, T. and Roberts, B. (2001). Markets and politics: the 2000 Taiwanese election. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois.Google Scholar
Lindblom, C. (1977). Politics and Markets: The World's Political Economic Systems. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Lintner, J. (1965). Security prices, risk and maximal gains from diversification. Journal of Finance, 20, 587–615.Google Scholar
Ljungqvist, L. and Sargent, T. (2000). Recursive Macroeconomic Theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Lobo, B. and Tufte, D. (1998). Exchange rate volatility: does politics matter?Journal of Macroeconomics, 20, 351–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Longin, F. and Solnik, B. (2001). Extreme correlation of international equity markets. Journal of Finance, 56, 649–675.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lonning, I. M. (2000). Default premia on European government debt. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 136, 259–283.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lumsdaine, R. L. (1991). Asymptotic Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator in GARCH (1,1) and IGARCH (1,1) Models, Manuscript, Department of Economics, Princeton University.Google Scholar
Lupia, A. and Strom, K. (1995). Coalition termination and the strategic timing of legislative elections. American Political Science Review, 89, 648–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacDonald, R. and Taylor, M. P. (1991). Testing efficiency in the interwar foreign exchange market: a multiple time series approach. Weltwirschaftliches Archiv, 127, 500–523.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mackuen, M., Erikson, R. and Stimson, J. A. (1989). Macropartisanship. American Political Science Review, 83, 1125–1142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mackuen, M., Erikson, R. and Stimson, J. A. (1995). Dynamic representation. American Political Science Review, 89(4), 543–565.Google Scholar
Malkiel, B. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17, 59–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mandelbrot, B. and Taylor, H. (1967). On the distribution of stock price differences. Operations Research, 15, 1057–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mark, N. (1985). On time varying risk premia in the foreign exchange market. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16, 3–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Markovitz, H. (1959). Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Marston, R. C. (1995). International Financial Integration: A Study of Interest Differentials between the Major Industrial Countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Martin, L. (2000). Public Opinion Shocks and Cabinet Termination, Typescript, Florida State University.Google Scholar
McBrady, M. (2003). What Explains Industrial Country Sovereign Spreads? Manuscript: Darden Graduate School of Business, University of Virginia.Google Scholar
McCarty, N., Poole, K. and Rosenthal, H. (2002). Polarized Politics in the Transfer State, Manuscript, Princeton University.Google Scholar
McGillivray, F. (2003). Coalition Formation and Stock Price Volatility, Manuscript, New York University.Google Scholar
McKinnon, R. (1962). Optimum currency areas. American Economic Review, 53, 717–24.Google Scholar
Meese, R. (1990). Currency fluctuations in the post-Bretton Woods era. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4, 117–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meese, R. and Rogoff, K. (1983). Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: do they fit out-of-sample?Journal of International Economics, 3–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meese, R. and Rogoff, K. (1987). Was it real? The exchange rate-interest differential relation over the modern floating-rate era. Journal of Finance, 933–48.Google Scholar
Mehra, R. and Prescott, E. (1985). The equity premium puzzle. Journal of Monetary Economics, 15, 145–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mehra, R. and Prescott, E. (2003). The equity premium in retrospect. National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper W9525.Google Scholar
Melvin, M. and Yin,, X. (2000). Public information arrival, exchange rate volatility, and quote frequency. The Economic Journal, 110, 644–661.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mincer, J. and Zarnowitz, V. (1969). The evaluation of economic forecasts. In Economic Forecasts and Expectations, ed. Mincer, J.. New York: National Bureau of Research.Google Scholar
Monroe, B. (2001). Bias and Responsiveness in Multiparty Representation, Typescript, Michigan State University.Google Scholar
Mosley, L. (2002). Global Capital Markets and National Governments, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mulgan, R. (1994). Politics in New Zealand. Auckland: Auckland University Press.Google Scholar
Mundell, R. (1961). A theory of optimal currency areas. American Economic Review, 51, 509–17.Google Scholar
Mussa, M. (1984). The theory of exchange rate determination. In Exchange Rate Theory and Policy, eds. Bilson, J. and Marston, R.. Chicago, Il: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, R., Niemi, R. and Amato, T. (1996). Prospective and comparative or retrospective and individual? Party leaders and party support in Great Britain. British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), 245–258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, R., Niemi, R. and Amato, T. (2000). Elite economic forecasts, economic news, mass economic expectations, and voting intentions in Great Britain. European Journal of Political Research, 38, 135–170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neal, L. (1990). The Rise of Financial Capitalism: International Capital Markets in the Age of Reason. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: a new approach. Econometrica, 59, 347–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newey, W. K. and West, K. D. (1987). A simple, positive semi-definite heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica, 55, 703–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norpoth, H. (1991). The popularity of the Thatcher government: a matter of war and economy. In Economics and Politics, eds. Norpoth, M. Lewis-Beck H. and Lafay, J.-D.. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
North, D. (1981). Structure and Change in Economic History. New York: W.W. Norton and Company.Google Scholar
Obstfeld, M. and Stockman, A. (1985). Exchange rate dynamics. In Handbook of International Economics, Volume II, eds. Jones, R. and Kenen, P.. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
Obstfeld, M. and Taylor, A. M. (2004). Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis, and Growth. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
OECD (2002). Increases in Investment in the 1990s: the role of output, cost of capital and finance. Financial Market Trends, 83, 121–42.
O'Hara, M. (1995). Market Microstructure Theory. London: Blackwell Publishing.Google Scholar
Oxley, L. and McAleer, M. (1993). Econometric issues in macroeconomic models with generated regressors. Journal of Economic Surveys, 7, 1–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pagan, A. R. and Schwert, G. W. (1990). Alternative models of stock volatility. Journal of Econometrics, 45, 267–290.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Patterson, K. (2000). An Introduction to Applied Econometrics. New York: St. Martin's Press.Google Scholar
Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57, 1361–1402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Persson, T. and Tabellini, G. (2002). Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Portes, R. and Rey, H. (2005). The determinants of cross-border equity flows. Journal of International Economics, 65, 269–296.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Poterba, J. (2004). The impact of population aging on financial markets. NBER Working Papers 10851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.Google Scholar
Powell, G. B. (1982). Contemporary Democracies. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Powell, G. B. (2000). Elections as Instruments of Democracy. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Quinn, D. P. (1997). The correlates of change in international financial regulation. American Political Science Review, 91(September), 531–551.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quinn, D. and Inclan, C. (1997). The origins of financial openness: a study of current and capital account liberalization. American Journal of Political Science, 41(3), 771–813.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quinn, D. P. and Woolley, J. T. (2001). Democracy and national economic performance: the preference for stability. American Journal of Political Science, 45(July), 634–657.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rae, D. (1971). The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Rajan, R. G. and Zingales, L. (2003). Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists. New York: Crown Books.Google Scholar
Riker, W. (1962). The Theory of Political Coalitions. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Roberts, B. (1994). The Industrial Organization of the 1992 US Presidential Election. Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois.Google Scholar
Rogoff, K. (1990). Equilibrium political budget cycles. American Economic Review, 80, 21–36.Google Scholar
Roll, R. (1977). A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests: part I. Journal of Financial Economics, 4, 129–176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roll, R. (1992). Industrial structure and the comparative behavior of international stock market indices. Journal of Finance, 47, 3–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roll, R. and Yan, S. (1998). An Explanation of the Forward Premium ‘Puzzle’, Manuscript, Los Angeles: The Anderson School at UCLA.Google Scholar
Ross, S. A. (1976). The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing. Journal of Economic Theory, 13, 341–360.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roubini, N. and Sachs, J. (1989a). Government spending and budget deficits in the industrial countries. Economic Policy, 8, 99–132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roubini, N. and Sachs, J. (1989b) Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies. European Economic Review, 33, 903–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanders, D. (1999). Conservative incompetence, labour responsibility and the feel-good factor: why the economy failed to save the Conservatives in 1997. Electoral Studies, 18, 251–270.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanders, D. (2000). The real economy and the perceived economy in popularity functions: how much do voters need to know?Electoral Studies, 19, 275–294.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanders, D., Marsh, D. and Ward, H. (1993). The electoral impact of press coverage of the British economy. 1979–87. British Journal of Political Science, 23(2), 175–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scharpf, F. (1987). Crisis and Choice in European Social Democracy. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Schofield, N. (1992). Political Competition in Multiparty Coalition Governments, Typescript, Washington University.Google Scholar
Sharpe, W. (1964). Capital asset prices: a theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19, 425–42.Google Scholar
Sharpe, W. (1970). Portfolio Theory and Capital Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Shepsle, K. (1991). Models of Multiparty Electoral Competition. Chur: Harwood Academic Publishers.Google Scholar
Shiller, R. (1979). The volatility of long-term interest rates and expectations models of the term structure. Journal of Political Economy, 87, 1190–1219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shiller, R. (1990). The term structure of interest rates. In Handbook of Monetary Economics, Volume I, eds. Friedman, B. M. and Hahn, F. H.. New York: Elsevier Science Publishers.Google Scholar
Shleifer, A. (2000). Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, A. (2000). Election Timing in Majoritarian Parliaments, Typescript, Yale University.Google Scholar
Smith, A. (2004). Election Timing. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Sola, M. and Timmerman, A. (1994). Fitting the Moments: A Comparison of ARCH and Regime-Switching Models for Daily Stock Returns. London Business School DP, pp. 6–94.Google Scholar
Solnik, B. (2000). International Investments, 4th edition. New York: Pearson Addison Wesley.Google Scholar
Stein, E. and Streb, W. (1998). Elections and the timing of devaluations. Working Paper, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Stewart, M. C. and Clarke, H. D. (1992). The (un) importance of party leaders: leader images and party choice in the 1987 British election. The Journal of Politics, 54(2), 447–470.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strange, S. (1996). Retreat of the State: The Diffusion of Power in the World Economy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strom, K. and Leipart, J. (1993). Policy, institutions, and coalition avoidance: Norwegian governments. 1945–1990. American Political Science Review, 87(4), 870–887.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tabellini, G. and Alesina, A. (1990). Voting on the Budget Deficit. American Economic Association, American Economic Review, 80(1), 37–49.Google Scholar
Tauchen, G. and Pitts, M. (1983). The price variability-volume relationship in speculative markets. Econometrica, 51, 485–506.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tavelli, H., Tullio, G. and Spinelli, F. (1998). The evolution of European Central Bank independence: an updating of the Masciandaro and Spinelli index. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 45(3), 341–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, M. (1995). The economics of exchange rates. Journal of Economic Literature, 33, 13–47.Google Scholar
Thaler, R. H. (1992). The winner's curse: Paradoxes and anomalies of economic life. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Theodossiou, P. (1994). The stochastic properties of major Canadian exchange rates. The Financial Review, 29, 193–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Timmerman, A. G. (1996). Excess volatility and predictability of stock prices in autoregressive models with learning. Review of Economic Studies, 63, 523–557.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tobin, J. (1969). A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1, 15–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tsay, R. (2002). Analysis of Financial Time Series. New York: John Wiley and Sons.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tsebelis, G. (2002). Veto Players: How Political Institutions Work. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Turner, C. M., Startz, R. and Nelson, C. R. (1989). A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk and learning in the stock market. Journal of Financial Economics, 25, 3–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norden, S. and Huntley, S. (1997). Regime-switching in stock-market returns. Applied Financial Economics, 7, 177–191.Google Scholar
Warwick, P. (1994). Government Survival in Parliamentary Democracies. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Westerfield, R. (1977). The distribution of common stock price changes: an application of transactions time and subordinated stochastic models. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 12, 743–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wlezien, C. (2001). On forecasting the presidential vote. PS: Political Science and Politics, 34, 25–31.Google Scholar
Wlezien, C. and Erikson, R. (2001). Campaign effects in theory and practice. American Politics Research, 29, 419–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wooldridge, J. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Zakoian, J. M. (1990). Threshold Hetereoskedastic Models, Manuscript, CREST, INSEE, Paris.Google Scholar
Zakoian, J. M. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18, 931–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zivot, E. and Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Studies, 10, 251–270.Google Scholar
Alesina, A., Broeck, M., Prati, A. and Tabellini, G. (1992). Default risk on government debt in OECD countries. Economic Policy, 15, 427–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, A., Grilli, V. and Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (1994). The political economy of capital controls. In Capital Mobility: the Impact on Consumption, Investment, and Growth, eds. Leiderman, L. and Razin, A.. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Alesina, A. and Rosenthal, H. (1995). Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, A. and Roubini, N. (1997). Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Alesina, A., Roubini, N. and Cohen, G. (1993). Electoral business cycles in industrial democracies. European Journal of Political Economy, 23, 1–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, A. and Sachs, J. (1988). Political parties and the business cycle in the United States: 1948–1984. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 20(1), 63–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alexander, C. (2001). Market Models: A Guide to Financial Data Analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Aliber, R. Z. (1973). The interest rate parity theorem: a reinterpretation. Journal of Political Economy, 81, 1451–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allison, P. (1984). Event History Analysis. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alt, J. and Chrystal, K. A. (1983). Political Economics. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Alt, J. and King, G. (1994). Transfers of governmental power: the meaning of time dependence. Comparative Political Studies, 27(2), 190–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alt, J. (1979). The Politics of Economic Decline. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ammer, J. and Mei, J. (1996). Measuring international economic linkages with stock market data. Journal of Finance, 51, 1743–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andrews, D. (1994). Capital mobility and state autonomy: toward a structural theory of international monetary relations. International Studies Quarterly, 38, 193–218.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bachman, D. (1992). The effect of political risk on the forward exchange bias: the case of elections. Journal of International Money and Finance, 11, 208–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bailey, R. (2005). The Economics of Financial Markets. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baillie, R. T. and McMahon, P. C. (1989). The Foreign Exchange Market: Theory and Econometric Evidence. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ballie, R. and Bollerslev, T. (1989). The message in daily exchange rates: a conditional-variance tale. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 7, 297–305.Google Scholar
Baillie, R., Bollerslev, T. and Mikkelsen, H. (1996). Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 74, 3–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barberis, N. and Thaler, R. (2002). A survey of behavioral finance. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 9222.Google Scholar
Barr, D. G. and Priestley, R. (2002). Expected Returns, Risk and the Integration of International Bond Markets, Manuscript, Imperial College, London.Google Scholar
Barro, R. and Gordon, D. (1983). Rules, discretion, and reputation in a model of monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, 101–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bates, R. (2001). Prosperity and Violence: The Political Economy of Development. New York: W.W. Norton and Company.Google Scholar
Beck, N. (1991). Comparing dynamic specifications: the case of presidential approval. Political Analysis, 3, 51–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, N. (1997). Modeling Space and Time: The Event History Approach, Manuscript.Google Scholar
Beck, N., Katz, J. and Tucker, R. (1998). Beyond ordinary logit: taking time seriously in binary time-series-cross-section models. American Journal of Political Science, 42( 4), 1260–1288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bera, A. and Higgins, M. K. (1993). A survey of ARCH models: properties, estimation, and testing. Journal of Economic Surveys, 7, 305–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berk, R. (1990). A primer on robust regression. In Modern Methods of Data Analysis, eds. Fox, J. and Long, J. S.. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Press.Google Scholar
Bernhard, W. (2001). Exchange Rate Stability and Political Accountability in the European Monetary System, Typescript, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.Google Scholar
Bernhard, W. (2002). Banking on Reform: Political Parties and Central Bank Independence in the Industrial Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernhard, W. and Leblang, D. (2002a). Political processes and foreign exchange markets: the forward exchange rate bias. American Journal of Political Science, 46(2), 316–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernhard, W. and Leblang, D. (2002b). Political parties and monetary commitments. International Organization, 56(4), 803–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernhard, W. and Leblang, D. (2006). Polls and pounds: political expectations and exchange rate volatility in Britain. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 1(1), 26–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernoth, K., Hagen, J. and Schuknecht, L. (2004). Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market. European Central Bank, Working Paper 369 (June).Google Scholar
Bernstein, W. (2004). The Birth of Plenty: How the Prosperity of the Modern World was Created. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Black, F. (1972). Capital market equilibrium with restricted borrowing. Journal of Business, 45, 444–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Block, F. (1977). The ruling class does not rule: notes on the Marxist theory of the state. Socialist Revolution, 33, 6–28.Google Scholar
Blomberg, S. B. and Hess, G. (1996). Politics and foreign exchange rate forecasts. Research Working Paper 96–02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.Google Scholar
Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollerslev, T. (1990). Modeling the coherence in short-run nominal exchange rates: a multivariate generalized arch model. Review of Economics and Statistics, 72, 498–505.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollerslev, T., Chou, R. Y. and Kroner, K. F. (1992). ARCH modeling in finance. Journal of Econometrics, 52, 5–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollerslev, T. and Mikkelsen, H. (1996). Modeling and pricing long-memory in stock market volatility. Journal of Econometrics, 73, 151–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollerslev, T. and Rossi, P. (1996). Introduction. In Modeling Stock Market Volatility: Bridging the Gap to Continuous Time, ed. Rossi, P.. San Diego, CA: The Academic Press.Google Scholar
Bossaerts, P. (2002). The Paradox of Asset Pricing. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, J. and Smith, R. M. (1996). The dynamics of aggregate partisanship. American Political Science Review, 90(3), 352–371.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boyer, B. H., Gibson, M. S. and Loretan, M. (1997). Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations. International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Google Scholar
Brace, P. and Hinckley, B. (1991). The structure of presidential approval. Journal of Politics, 53(4), 993–1017.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brace, P. and Hinckley, B. (1992). Follow the Leader: Opinion Polls and Modern Presidencies. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Bracker, K., Docking, D. S. and Koch, P. (1999). Economic determinants of evolution in international stock market integration. Journal of Empirical Finance, 6, 1–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Branson, R. and Henderson, D. (1985). The specification and influence of asset markets. In Handbook of International Economics, Volume II, eds. Jones, R. and Kenen, P.. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
Brehm, J. and Gronke, P. (1994). Modeling volatile approval: a modified ARCH approach to presidential approval ratings. Paper presented at APSA, New York.Google Scholar
Brennan, R. and Prediger, D. (1981). Coefficient kappa: some uses, misuses, and alternatives. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 41, 687–699.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Britton, A. (1991). Macroeconomic Policy in Britain 1974–1987. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brooks, C. (2002). Introductory Econometrics for Finance. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brooks, R. and del Negro, M. (2002). The Rise in Comovement Across National Stock Markets: Market Integration or Global Bubble? IMF Working Paper WP/02/147.Google Scholar
Brown, S. and Warner, J. (1980). Measuring security price performance. Journal of Financial Economics, 8, 205–258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, S. and Warner, J. (1985). Using daily stock returns: the case of event studies. Journal of Financial Economics, 14, 3–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Budge, I. and Kingemann, H.-D. (2001). Finally! Comparative over-time mapping of party policy movement. In Mapping Policy Preferences: Estimates for Parties, Electors and Governments 1945–1998, ed. Budge, et al. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 19–50.Google Scholar
Budge, I., Kingemann, H.-D., Volkens, A., Bara, J. and Tanenbaum, E. (2001). Mapping Policy Preferences: Estimates for Parties, Electors, and Governments 1945–1998. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Butler, D. and Butler, G. (2000). Twentieth-Century British Political Facts 1900–2000, 8th edition. New York: St. Martin's Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cameron, C. (2000). Veto Bargaining: Presidents and the Politics of Negative Power. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cameron, D. (1984). Social democracy, corporatism, labour quiescence and the representation of economic interest in advanced capitalist society. In Order and Conflict in Contemporary Capitalism, ed. Goldthorpe, J. H.. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
Campbell, J. Y. (2002). Consumption-based asset pricing. In Handbook of the Economics of Finance, eds. Constantinides, G., Harris, M. and Stulz, R. M.. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W. and MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). The Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Campbell, J. Y. and Shiller, R. J. (1987). Cointegration and tests of present value models. Journal of Political Economy, 95, 1062–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, J. Y. and Shiller, R. J. (1991). Yield spreads and interest rate movements: a bird's eye view. The Review of Economic Studies, 58, 495–514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canova, F. and Nicolo, G. (2003). The equity premium and the risk-free rate: an investigation across time and countries. IMF Staff Papers, 50, 222–249.Google Scholar
Castles, F. and Mair, P. (1984). Left-right political scales: some expert judgments. European Journal of Political Research, 12, 83–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cavaglia, S., Brithgman, C. and Aked, M. (2000). The increasing importance of industry factors. Financial Analysts Journal, 56, 41–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Charemza, W. W. and Deadman, D. F. (1992). New Directions in Econometric Practice. Aldershot, England: Edward Elgar.Google Scholar
Chen, N.-F. (1983). Some empirical tests of the theory of arbitrage pricing. The Journal of Finance, 38, 1393–1414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, N.-F. (1991). Financial investment opportunities and the macroeconomy. Journal of Finance, 46, 529–554.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, N.-F., Roll, R. and Ross, S. A. (1986). Economic forces and the stock market. Journal of Business, 59, 383–403.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cheung, Y.-W. and Lai, K. (1998). Macroeconomic Determinants of Long-Term Stock Market Comovements Among Major EMS Countries, Manuscript, Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz.Google Scholar
Christodoulakis, N. and Kalyvitis, S. (1997). Efficiency testing revisited: a foreign exchange market with Bayesian learning. Journal of International Money and Finance, 16, 367–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, P. (1973). A subordinated stochastic process model with finite variance for speculative prices. Econometrica, 41, 135–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, H., Ho, K. and Stewart, M. (2000). Major's lessor (not minor) effects: Prime Ministerial approval and governing party support in Britain since 1979. Electoral Studies, 19, 255–273.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, H. and Stewart, M. (1995). Economic evaluations, prime ministerial approval and governing party support: rival models reconsidered. British Journal of Political Science, 25, 145–170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, H. D., Stewart, M. C. and Whiteley, P. F. (1998). New models for new labour: the political economy of labour party support, January 1992–April 1997. American Political Science Review, 92(3), 559–575.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cobham, D., ed. (1994). European Monetary Upheavals. Manchester: Manchester University Press.Google Scholar
Cochrane, J. H. (2001). Asset Pricing. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Codogno, L., Favero, C. and Missale, A. (2003). Yield Spreads on EMU Government Bonds. Economic Policy, 18, 503–532.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Copeland, L. and Jones, S. (2001). Default probabilities of European sovereign debt: market-based estimates. Applied Economic Letters, 8, 321–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corsetti, G., Pericoli, M. and Sbracia, M. (2002). Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion. Working Paper, Department of Economics, Yale University.Google Scholar
Cox, G. (1987). Electoral equilibria under alternative voting institutions. American Journal of Political Science, 31, 82–108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, G. (1989). Undominated candidate strategies under alternative voting rules. Mathematical Modelling, 12, 451–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cukierman, A., Webb, S. B. and Neyapti, B. (1992). Measuring the independence of central banks and its effect on policy outcomes. World Bank Economic Review, 6(3), 353–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cuthbertson, K. (1996). Quantitative Financial Economics: Stocks, Bonds and Foreign Exchange. New York: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Dacorogna, M. M., Gencay, R., Muller, U. A., Olsen, R. B. and Pictet, O. (2001). An Introduction to High Frequency Finance. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
DeBoef, S. (2000). Modeling equilibrium relationships: error correction models with strongly autoregressive data. Political Analysis, 9, 78–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeVries, C. (1992). Stylized facts of nominal exchange rate returns. In Handbook of International Macroeconomics, ed. Ploeg, F.. London: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Diebold, F. X., Lee, J.-H. and Weinbach, G. C. (1994). Regime-switching with time varying transition probabilities. In Nonstationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration, ed. Hargreaves, C.. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 283–302.Google Scholar
Diebold, F. and Nerlove,, M. (1989). The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: a multivariate latent factor ARCH model. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4, 1–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Domowitz, I. and Hakkio, C. (1985). Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market. Journal of International Economics, 19, 47–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dooley, M. P. and Isard, P. (1980). Capital controls, political risk, and deviations from interest-rate parity. Journal of Political Economy, 88, 370–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Democracy. Boston: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Drazen, A. (2000). Political Economy in Macroeconomics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Duffie, D. (2001). Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory, 3rd edition. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, B. and Mody, A. (2004). Do collective action clauses raise borrowing costs. The Economic Journal, 114, 247–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, B., Rose, A. and Wyplosz, C. (1995). Exchange market mayhem: the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks. Economic Policy, 21, 249–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elton, E. J., Gruber, M. J., Brown, S. J. and Goetzmann, W. N. (2003). Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis, 6th edition. New York: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Enders, W. (2004). Applied Econometric Time Series, 2nd edition. New York: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Engel, C. (1994). Can the Markov-switching model forecast exchange rates?Journal of International Economics, 36, 151–165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engel, C. (1996). The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: a survey of recent evidence. Journal of Empirical Finance (June), 123–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engle, R. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50, 987–1007.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engle, R. (1984). Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier tests in econometrics. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 2, eds. Griliches, Z. and Intriligator, M.. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
Engle, R. (1996). The econometrics of ultra-high frequency data. NBER Paper 5816.Google Scholar
Engle, R. F., Lilien, D. M. and Robins, R. P. (1987). Estimating time varying risk premia in the term structure: the ARCH-M model. Econometrica, 55, 391–408.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Epps, T. and Epps, M. (1976). The stochastic dependence of security price changes and transactions volumes: implications for the mixture-of-distributions hypothesis. Econometrica, 44, 305–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, G. and Honkapohja, S. (2001). Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. (1970). Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance, 25, 383–417.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. (1984). Forward and spot exchange rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 14, 319–338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. (1991). Efficient capital markets II. Journal of Finance, 46, 1575–1618.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. L., Jensen, F. M. and Roll, R. (1969). The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International Economics Review, 10, 1–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. F. and French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Finance, 47, 426–465.Google Scholar
Fama, E. and MacBeth, J. (1973). Risk, return and equilibrium: empirical tests. Journal of Political Economy, 71, 607–636.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farrell, D. M. (2001). Electoral Systems: A Comparative Introduction. New York: Palgrave.Google Scholar
Fiorina, M. (1981). Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Flandreau, M., Cacheux, L. and Zumer, F. (1998). Stability without a pact? Lessons from the European gold standard. 1880–1914. Economic Policy, 26, 117–62.Google Scholar
Forbes, K. J. and Chinn, M. D. (2003). A decomposition of global linkages in financial markets over time, Working Paper 4413–03. MIT Sloan School of Management.Google Scholar
Forbes, K. J. and Chinn, M. D. (2004). A decomposition of global linkages in financial markets over time. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86, 705–722.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forbes, J. and Rigobon, R. (2002). No contagion, only interdependence: measuring stock market co-movements. Journal of Finance, 999, 900–909.Google Scholar
Foster, F. D. and Vishwanathan, S. (1995). Can speculative trading explain the volume–volatility relation?Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, October, 379–396.Google Scholar
Frankel, J. and Mussa, M. (1985). Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments. In Handbook of International Economics, Volume II, eds. Jones, R. and Kenen, P.. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
Frankel, J. A. and Engel, C. M. (1984). Do asset demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns? A six currency test. Journal of International Economics, 17, 309–323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frankel, J. A. and Schmukler, S. L. (1997). Country funds and asymmetric information. Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-087. University of California at Berkeley.Google Scholar
Franklin, C. (2001). Pre-Election Polls in Nation and State: a Dynamic Bayesian Hierarchical Model. Presented at the 2001 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco.Google Scholar
Franses, P. H. and Dijk, D. (2000). Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franzese, R. (2002). Electoral and partisan cycles in economic policies and outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science, 5, 369–421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freeman, J. R., Hays, J. C. and Stix, H. (1999). The Electoral Information Hypothesis Revisited, Manuscript, University of Michigan.Google Scholar
Freeman, J. R., Hays, J. C. and Stix, H. (2000). Democracy and markets: the case of exchange rates. American Journal of Political Science, 44(3), 449–468.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
French, K. and Poterba, J. (1991). Investor diversification and international equity markets. American Economic Review, 81, 222–226.Google Scholar
Frieden, J. (1991). Invested interests: the politics of national economic policies in a world of global finance. International Organization, 45, 425–451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frieden, J. (1999). Sectoral Interests and European Monetary Integration: An Empirical Assessment, Typescript, Harvard University.Google Scholar
Friedman, M. (1953). The case for flexible exchange rates. In Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Froot, K. and Frankel, J. (1989). Forward discount bias: is it an exchange risk premium?Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104, 139–161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Froot, K. and Frankel, J. (1990). Anomalies: foreign exchange. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4, 179–192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gallant, A. R, Rossi, P. E. and Tauchen, G. (1992). Stock prices and volume. Review of Financial Studies, 5, 199–242.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garcia, R. (1998). Asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio test in a Markov-switching model. International Economic Review, 39, 763–788.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garrett, G. (1992). The political consequences of Thatcherism. Political Behavior, 14, 361–382.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garrett, G. (1995). Capital mobility, trade, and the domestic politics of economic policy. International Organization, 49(4), 657–687.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartner, M. and Wellershoff, K. W. (1995). Is there an election cycle in stock market returns?International Review of Economics and Finance, 4, 387–410.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gemmill, G. (1992). Political risk and market efficiency: tests based on British stock and options markets in the 1987 election. Journal of Banking and Finance, 16, 211–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gemmill, G. (1995). Stockmarket behavior and information in British elections. Working Paper, City University Business School.Google Scholar
Gerber, A. and Green, D. (1998). Rational learning and partisan attitudes. American Journal of Political Science, 42, 794–818.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glosten, L. R., Jaganathan, R. and Runkle, D. E. (1993). On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks. The Journal of Finance, 48, 1779–1801.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodman, J. and Pauly, L. B. (1993). The obsolescence of capital controls? Economic management in an age of global markets. World Politics, 46, 50–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Granato, J. (1996). The effect of policy-maker reputation and credibility on public expectations: an application to macroeconomic policy changes. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 8(4), 449–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Granato, J. and Wong, M. C. S. (2005). The Role of Policymakers in Business Cycle Fluctuations. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Green, D. and Gerber, A. (2000). Samplemiser 4.0.Google Scholar
Green, D., Gerber, A. and DeBoef, S. (1999). Tracking opinion over time: a method for reducing sampling error. Public Opinion Quarterly, 63, 178–192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green, D., Palmquist, B. and Schickler, E. (2002). Partisan Hearts and Minds. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Greene, W. (2003). Econometric Analysis, 5th edition. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Griffin, J. M. and Karolyi, G. A. (1998). Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies. Journal of Financial Economics, 59, 351–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Griffin, J. M., Nardari, F. and Stulz, R. M. (2002). Daily cross-border equity flows: published or pulled? Ohio State University: Dice Working Paper No. 2002–6.Google Scholar
Grilli, V., Masciandaro, D. and Tabellini, G. (1991). Political and monetary institutions and public finance policies in the industrialized democracies. Economic Policy, 10(October), 342–92.Google Scholar
Gros, D. and Thygesen, N. (1998). European Monetary Integration: from the European Monetary System to European Monetary Union, 2nd edition. New York: Longman Press.Google Scholar
Gujarati, D. (2003). Basic Econometrics, 4th edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Haggard, S. and McCubbins, M., eds. (2001). Presidents, Parliaments and Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hall, P. (1986). Governing the Economy: the Politics of State Intervention in Britain and France. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Hallerberg, M. (2004). Domestic Budgets in a United Europe: Fiscal Governance from the End of Bretton Woods to EMU. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Hallerberg, M. and von Hagen, J. (1998). Electoral institutions, cabinet negotiations, and budget deficits within the European Union. In Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, eds. Poterba, J. and Hagen, J., pp. 209–32. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Hallwood, C. P. and MacDonald, R. (1994). International Money and Finance, 2nd edition. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.Google Scholar
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57, 357–384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press: Princeton.Google Scholar
Hamilton, J. D. and Susmel, R. (1994). Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime. Journal of Econometrics, 64, 307–333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, B. E. (1992). The likelihood ratio test under non-standard conditions: testing the Markov switching model of GNP. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 7, S61–S82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, B. E. (2001). The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Changes in U.S. Labor Productivity. Typescript, University of Wisconsin.Google Scholar
Hansen, L. (1982). Large sample properties of generalized method of moments estimators. Econometrica, 50, 1029–1054.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, L. and Hodrick, R. (1980). Forward exchange rates as optimal predictors of future spot rates: an econometric analysis. Journal of Political Economy, 88, 829–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hanushek, E. A. (1974). Efficient estimators for regressing regression coefficients. The American Statistician, 28, 66–67.Google Scholar
Harvey, C., Solnik, B. and Zhou, G. (1994). What determines expected international asset returns? NBER Working Paper.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hausman, J. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46, 1251–1271.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heckman, J. (1979). Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica, 47, 153–161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helleiner, E. (1994). States and the Reemerging of Global Finance: From Bretton Woods to the 1990s. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Herron, M. (2000). Estimating the economic impact of political party competition in the 1992 British election. American Journal of Political Science, 44(3), 326–337.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herron, M., Lavin, J., Cram, D. and Silver, J. (1999). Measurement of political effects in the U.S. economy: a study of the 1992 presidential election. Economics and Politics, 11, 51–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heston, S. L. and Rouwenhorst, K. G. (1994). Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?The Journal of Finance, 36, 3–27.Google Scholar
Treasury, H. M. (2003). EMU and the Cost of Capital. London: Bank of England.Google Scholar
Hibbs, D. A. (1987). The Political Economy of Industrial Democracies. Harvard Univ. Press: Cambridge, Mass.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hodrick, R. J. (1987). The Empirical Evidence on the Efficiency of Forward and Futures Foreign Exchange Markets. London: Harwood Academic Publishers.Google Scholar
Howison, S. and Lamper, D. (2000). Trading volume in models of financial derivatives, Working Paper, Center for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, University of Oxford.Google Scholar
Huber, J. (1996a). Rationalizing Parliament: Legislative Institutions and Party Politics in France. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, J. (1996b). The vote of confidence in parliamentary democracies. American Political Science Review, 90(2), 269–282.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, J. and Gabel, M. (2000). Putting parties in their place: inferring party left-right ideological positions. American Journal of Political Science, 44(1), 94–103.Google Scholar
Ilmanen, A. (1996). When do bond markets reward investors for interest rate risk? Journal of Portfolio Management, Winter.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ito, T. (1986). Capital controls and covered interest parity between the Yen and the Dollar. Economic Studies Quarterly, 37, 223–40.Google Scholar
Jackson, S. (1995). Re-thinking equilibrium presidential approval: Markov-switching error correction, Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Political Methodology Section, Bloomington, IN.Google Scholar
Jacobs, L. R. and Shapiro, R. Y. (2000). Politicians Don't Pander: Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Jones, P. and Hudson, J. (1996). The quality of political leadership: a case study of John Major. British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), 229–244.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jorion, P. (1992). Term premiums and the integration of the Eurocurrency markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 11, 17–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jowell, R., Hedges, B., Lynn, P., Farrant, G. and Heath, A. (1993). The 1992 British election: the failure of the polls. Public Opinion Quarterly, 57(Summer), 238–263.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Karolyi, G. A. and Stulz, R. M. (2002). Are financial assets priced locally or globally? In Handbook of the Economics of Finance, eds. M. Harris, G. Constantinides and Stulz, R. M.. North Holland.Google Scholar
Karpoff, J. (1987). The relation between price changes and trading volume: a survey. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 22, 109–126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kavanaugh, D. (1987). Thatcherism and British Politics: The End of Consensus?New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Kennedy, P. (1998). A Guide to Econometrics, 4th edition. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Kim, C.-J., Morley, J. C. and Nelson, C. R. (2002). Is there a Positive Relationship Between Stock Market Volatility and the Equity Premium? Manuscript, Washington University, St. Louis.Google Scholar
King, A., ed. with Wybrow, R. J. (2001). British Public Opinion: 1937–2000, The Gallup Polls. London: Politico's Publishing.
King, G., Alt, J., Burns, N. and Laver, M. (1990). A unified model of cabinet dissolution in parliamentary democracies. American Journal of Political Science, 34(3), 846–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, G. and Zeng, L. (2001). Logistic regression in rare events data. Political Analysis, 9, 137–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, M., Sentant, E. and Wadhawani, S. (1994). Volatility and links between stock markets. Econometrica, 62, 901–933.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, R. G. and Kurmann, A. (2002). Expectations and the term structure of interest rates: evidence and implications. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, 88, 49–95.Google Scholar
Kirk, R. E. (1995). Experimental Design: Procedures for the Behavioral Sciences. Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks-Cole.Google Scholar
Kmenta, J. (1986). Elements of Econometrics, 2nd edition. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Kose, M. A., Otrok, C. and Whiteman, C. (2003). Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles, Manuscript, International Monetary Fund.Google Scholar
Kothari, S. P. and Shanken, J. (1992). Stock return variation and excess dividends: a time-series and cross-sectional analysis. Journal of Financial Economics, 31, 177–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koutmos, G. and Theodossiou, P. (1994). Time-series properties and predictability of Greek exchange rates. Managerial and Decision Economics, 15, 159–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krasker, W. (1980). The ‘peso problem’ in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets. Journal of International Economics, 6, 269–276.Google Scholar
Krehbiel, K. (1998). Pivotal Politics. University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kydland, F. and Prescott, E. (1977). Rules rather than discretion: the inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy, 85, 473–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lamoureux, C. and Lastrapes, W. (1990). Heteroskedasticity in stock return data: volume versus GARCH effects. Journal of Finance, 45, 221–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laux, P. and Ng, L. (1993). The sources of GARCH: empirical evidence from an intraday returns model incorporating systematic and unique risks. Journal of International Money and Finance, 12, 543–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laver, M. (2001). Estimating the Policy Positions of Political Actors. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Laver,, M. and Budge, I., eds. (1991). Party and Coalition Policy in Western Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Laver, M. and Schofield, N. (1998). Multiparty Government: The Politics of Coalition in Europe. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laver, M. and Shepsle, K. (1996). Making and Breaking Governments. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leblang, D. and Bernhard, W. (2000). The politics of speculative attacks in industrial democracies. International Organization, 54(2), 291–324.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leblang, D. and Bernhard, W. (2006). Parliamentary politics and foreign exchange markets: the world according to GARCH. International Studies Quarterly (March) 50(1): 69–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leblang, D. and Mukherjee, B. (2004). Presidential elections and the stock market: comparing Markov-switching and fractionally integrated GARCH models. Political Analysis, Summer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leblang, D. and Mukherjee, B. (2005). Government partisanship, elections and the stock market: examining American and British stock returns, 1930–2000. American Journal of Political Science (October) 49, 781–803.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lemmen, J. and Goodhart, C. (1999). Government bond markets: a panel data econometric analysis. Eastern Economic Journal, 25, 77–107.Google Scholar
Lewis, K. (1995). Puzzles in international financial markets. In Handbook of International Economics, Volume III, eds. Grossman, G. and Rogoff, K.. Elsevier Science.Google Scholar
Lewis, K. K. (1999). Trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption. Journal of Economic Literature, 37, 571–608.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, M. (1988). Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, M., Norpoth, H. and Lafay, J.-D., eds. (1991). Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Li, L. (2002). Macroeconomic Factors and the Correlation of Stock and Bond Returns, Manuscript, Department of Economics, Yale University.Google Scholar
Lijphart, A. (1984a). Measures of cabinet durability: a conceptual and empirical evaluation. Comparative Political Studies, 17(2), 265–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, A. (1984b). Democracies. New Haven: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, A. (1999). Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-Six Countries. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Lin, T. and Roberts, B. (2001). Markets and politics: the 2000 Taiwanese election. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois.Google Scholar
Lindblom, C. (1977). Politics and Markets: The World's Political Economic Systems. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Lintner, J. (1965). Security prices, risk and maximal gains from diversification. Journal of Finance, 20, 587–615.Google Scholar
Ljungqvist, L. and Sargent, T. (2000). Recursive Macroeconomic Theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Lobo, B. and Tufte, D. (1998). Exchange rate volatility: does politics matter?Journal of Macroeconomics, 20, 351–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Longin, F. and Solnik, B. (2001). Extreme correlation of international equity markets. Journal of Finance, 56, 649–675.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lonning, I. M. (2000). Default premia on European government debt. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 136, 259–283.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lumsdaine, R. L. (1991). Asymptotic Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator in GARCH (1,1) and IGARCH (1,1) Models, Manuscript, Department of Economics, Princeton University.Google Scholar
Lupia, A. and Strom, K. (1995). Coalition termination and the strategic timing of legislative elections. American Political Science Review, 89, 648–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacDonald, R. and Taylor, M. P. (1991). Testing efficiency in the interwar foreign exchange market: a multiple time series approach. Weltwirschaftliches Archiv, 127, 500–523.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mackuen, M., Erikson, R. and Stimson, J. A. (1989). Macropartisanship. American Political Science Review, 83, 1125–1142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mackuen, M., Erikson, R. and Stimson, J. A. (1995). Dynamic representation. American Political Science Review, 89(4), 543–565.Google Scholar
Malkiel, B. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17, 59–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mandelbrot, B. and Taylor, H. (1967). On the distribution of stock price differences. Operations Research, 15, 1057–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mark, N. (1985). On time varying risk premia in the foreign exchange market. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16, 3–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Markovitz, H. (1959). Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Marston, R. C. (1995). International Financial Integration: A Study of Interest Differentials between the Major Industrial Countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Martin, L. (2000). Public Opinion Shocks and Cabinet Termination, Typescript, Florida State University.Google Scholar
McBrady, M. (2003). What Explains Industrial Country Sovereign Spreads? Manuscript: Darden Graduate School of Business, University of Virginia.Google Scholar
McCarty, N., Poole, K. and Rosenthal, H. (2002). Polarized Politics in the Transfer State, Manuscript, Princeton University.Google Scholar
McGillivray, F. (2003). Coalition Formation and Stock Price Volatility, Manuscript, New York University.Google Scholar
McKinnon, R. (1962). Optimum currency areas. American Economic Review, 53, 717–24.Google Scholar
Meese, R. (1990). Currency fluctuations in the post-Bretton Woods era. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4, 117–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meese, R. and Rogoff, K. (1983). Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: do they fit out-of-sample?Journal of International Economics, 3–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meese, R. and Rogoff, K. (1987). Was it real? The exchange rate-interest differential relation over the modern floating-rate era. Journal of Finance, 933–48.Google Scholar
Mehra, R. and Prescott, E. (1985). The equity premium puzzle. Journal of Monetary Economics, 15, 145–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mehra, R. and Prescott, E. (2003). The equity premium in retrospect. National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper W9525.Google Scholar
Melvin, M. and Yin,, X. (2000). Public information arrival, exchange rate volatility, and quote frequency. The Economic Journal, 110, 644–661.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mincer, J. and Zarnowitz, V. (1969). The evaluation of economic forecasts. In Economic Forecasts and Expectations, ed. Mincer, J.. New York: National Bureau of Research.Google Scholar
Monroe, B. (2001). Bias and Responsiveness in Multiparty Representation, Typescript, Michigan State University.Google Scholar
Mosley, L. (2002). Global Capital Markets and National Governments, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mulgan, R. (1994). Politics in New Zealand. Auckland: Auckland University Press.Google Scholar
Mundell, R. (1961). A theory of optimal currency areas. American Economic Review, 51, 509–17.Google Scholar
Mussa, M. (1984). The theory of exchange rate determination. In Exchange Rate Theory and Policy, eds. Bilson, J. and Marston, R.. Chicago, Il: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, R., Niemi, R. and Amato, T. (1996). Prospective and comparative or retrospective and individual? Party leaders and party support in Great Britain. British Journal of Political Science, 26(2), 245–258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, R., Niemi, R. and Amato, T. (2000). Elite economic forecasts, economic news, mass economic expectations, and voting intentions in Great Britain. European Journal of Political Research, 38, 135–170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neal, L. (1990). The Rise of Financial Capitalism: International Capital Markets in the Age of Reason. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: a new approach. Econometrica, 59, 347–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newey, W. K. and West, K. D. (1987). A simple, positive semi-definite heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica, 55, 703–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norpoth, H. (1991). The popularity of the Thatcher government: a matter of war and economy. In Economics and Politics, eds. Norpoth, M. Lewis-Beck H. and Lafay, J.-D.. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
North, D. (1981). Structure and Change in Economic History. New York: W.W. Norton and Company.Google Scholar
Obstfeld, M. and Stockman, A. (1985). Exchange rate dynamics. In Handbook of International Economics, Volume II, eds. Jones, R. and Kenen, P.. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
Obstfeld, M. and Taylor, A. M. (2004). Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis, and Growth. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
OECD (2002). Increases in Investment in the 1990s: the role of output, cost of capital and finance. Financial Market Trends, 83, 121–42.
O'Hara, M. (1995). Market Microstructure Theory. London: Blackwell Publishing.Google Scholar
Oxley, L. and McAleer, M. (1993). Econometric issues in macroeconomic models with generated regressors. Journal of Economic Surveys, 7, 1–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pagan, A. R. and Schwert, G. W. (1990). Alternative models of stock volatility. Journal of Econometrics, 45, 267–290.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Patterson, K. (2000). An Introduction to Applied Econometrics. New York: St. Martin's Press.Google Scholar
Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57, 1361–1402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Persson, T. and Tabellini, G. (2002). Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Portes, R. and Rey, H. (2005). The determinants of cross-border equity flows. Journal of International Economics, 65, 269–296.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Poterba, J. (2004). The impact of population aging on financial markets. NBER Working Papers 10851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.Google Scholar
Powell, G. B. (1982). Contemporary Democracies. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Powell, G. B. (2000). Elections as Instruments of Democracy. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Quinn, D. P. (1997). The correlates of change in international financial regulation. American Political Science Review, 91(September), 531–551.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quinn, D. and Inclan, C. (1997). The origins of financial openness: a study of current and capital account liberalization. American Journal of Political Science, 41(3), 771–813.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quinn, D. P. and Woolley, J. T. (2001). Democracy and national economic performance: the preference for stability. American Journal of Political Science, 45(July), 634–657.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rae, D. (1971). The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Rajan, R. G. and Zingales, L. (2003). Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists. New York: Crown Books.Google Scholar
Riker, W. (1962). The Theory of Political Coalitions. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Roberts, B. (1994). The Industrial Organization of the 1992 US Presidential Election. Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois.Google Scholar
Rogoff, K. (1990). Equilibrium political budget cycles. American Economic Review, 80, 21–36.Google Scholar
Roll, R. (1977). A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests: part I. Journal of Financial Economics, 4, 129–176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roll, R. (1992). Industrial structure and the comparative behavior of international stock market indices. Journal of Finance, 47, 3–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roll, R. and Yan, S. (1998). An Explanation of the Forward Premium ‘Puzzle’, Manuscript, Los Angeles: The Anderson School at UCLA.Google Scholar
Ross, S. A. (1976). The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing. Journal of Economic Theory, 13, 341–360.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roubini, N. and Sachs, J. (1989a). Government spending and budget deficits in the industrial countries. Economic Policy, 8, 99–132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roubini, N. and Sachs, J. (1989b) Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies. European Economic Review, 33, 903–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanders, D. (1999). Conservative incompetence, labour responsibility and the feel-good factor: why the economy failed to save the Conservatives in 1997. Electoral Studies, 18, 251–270.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanders, D. (2000). The real economy and the perceived economy in popularity functions: how much do voters need to know?Electoral Studies, 19, 275–294.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanders, D., Marsh, D. and Ward, H. (1993). The electoral impact of press coverage of the British economy. 1979–87. British Journal of Political Science, 23(2), 175–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scharpf, F. (1987). Crisis and Choice in European Social Democracy. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Schofield, N. (1992). Political Competition in Multiparty Coalition Governments, Typescript, Washington University.Google Scholar
Sharpe, W. (1964). Capital asset prices: a theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19, 425–42.Google Scholar
Sharpe, W. (1970). Portfolio Theory and Capital Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Shepsle, K. (1991). Models of Multiparty Electoral Competition. Chur: Harwood Academic Publishers.Google Scholar
Shiller, R. (1979). The volatility of long-term interest rates and expectations models of the term structure. Journal of Political Economy, 87, 1190–1219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shiller, R. (1990). The term structure of interest rates. In Handbook of Monetary Economics, Volume I, eds. Friedman, B. M. and Hahn, F. H.. New York: Elsevier Science Publishers.Google Scholar
Shleifer, A. (2000). Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, A. (2000). Election Timing in Majoritarian Parliaments, Typescript, Yale University.Google Scholar
Smith, A. (2004). Election Timing. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Sola, M. and Timmerman, A. (1994). Fitting the Moments: A Comparison of ARCH and Regime-Switching Models for Daily Stock Returns. London Business School DP, pp. 6–94.Google Scholar
Solnik, B. (2000). International Investments, 4th edition. New York: Pearson Addison Wesley.Google Scholar
Stein, E. and Streb, W. (1998). Elections and the timing of devaluations. Working Paper, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Stewart, M. C. and Clarke, H. D. (1992). The (un) importance of party leaders: leader images and party choice in the 1987 British election. The Journal of Politics, 54(2), 447–470.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strange, S. (1996). Retreat of the State: The Diffusion of Power in the World Economy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strom, K. and Leipart, J. (1993). Policy, institutions, and coalition avoidance: Norwegian governments. 1945–1990. American Political Science Review, 87(4), 870–887.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tabellini, G. and Alesina, A. (1990). Voting on the Budget Deficit. American Economic Association, American Economic Review, 80(1), 37–49.Google Scholar
Tauchen, G. and Pitts, M. (1983). The price variability-volume relationship in speculative markets. Econometrica, 51, 485–506.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tavelli, H., Tullio, G. and Spinelli, F. (1998). The evolution of European Central Bank independence: an updating of the Masciandaro and Spinelli index. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 45(3), 341–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, M. (1995). The economics of exchange rates. Journal of Economic Literature, 33, 13–47.Google Scholar
Thaler, R. H. (1992). The winner's curse: Paradoxes and anomalies of economic life. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Theodossiou, P. (1994). The stochastic properties of major Canadian exchange rates. The Financial Review, 29, 193–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Timmerman, A. G. (1996). Excess volatility and predictability of stock prices in autoregressive models with learning. Review of Economic Studies, 63, 523–557.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tobin, J. (1969). A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1, 15–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tsay, R. (2002). Analysis of Financial Time Series. New York: John Wiley and Sons.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tsebelis, G. (2002). Veto Players: How Political Institutions Work. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Turner, C. M., Startz, R. and Nelson, C. R. (1989). A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk and learning in the stock market. Journal of Financial Economics, 25, 3–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norden, S. and Huntley, S. (1997). Regime-switching in stock-market returns. Applied Financial Economics, 7, 177–191.Google Scholar
Warwick, P. (1994). Government Survival in Parliamentary Democracies. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Westerfield, R. (1977). The distribution of common stock price changes: an application of transactions time and subordinated stochastic models. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 12, 743–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wlezien, C. (2001). On forecasting the presidential vote. PS: Political Science and Politics, 34, 25–31.Google Scholar
Wlezien, C. and Erikson, R. (2001). Campaign effects in theory and practice. American Politics Research, 29, 419–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wooldridge, J. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Zakoian, J. M. (1990). Threshold Hetereoskedastic Models, Manuscript, CREST, INSEE, Paris.Google Scholar
Zakoian, J. M. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18, 931–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zivot, E. and Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Studies, 10, 251–270.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

  • References
  • William Bernhard, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, David Leblang, University of Colorado, Boulder
  • Book: Democratic Processes and Financial Markets
  • Online publication: 02 December 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511607226.010
Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • References
  • William Bernhard, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, David Leblang, University of Colorado, Boulder
  • Book: Democratic Processes and Financial Markets
  • Online publication: 02 December 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511607226.010
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • References
  • William Bernhard, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, David Leblang, University of Colorado, Boulder
  • Book: Democratic Processes and Financial Markets
  • Online publication: 02 December 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511607226.010
Available formats
×