Introduction

Demographers are often concerned with real populations seen as a whole, and for this purpose neither the analytical methods used in relation to particular characteristics described in chapters 5–9, nor the indexes and models to be described in chapters 15–19, tell the whole story. It is therefore desirable that some attention should be paid to the way in which, in all their complexity, real populations have evolved, especially in relation to the historical, political and economic circumstances that have prevailed from time to time. The purpose of the present chapter is therefore to outline the past development of particular populations – and in so doing to give to some extent a practical illustration of the methods of analysis and summary that have been outlined in this book.

The tale can begin in fact before recorded history. Although for obvious reasons not much is known of prehistoric days, and so little can be said about primitive man, nevertheless certain generalizations are possible from the work of palaeontologists, and also of anthropologists, who can even today make observations on tribes living in very remote regions. As time unfolds, and history begins, the record gradually becomes clear and it can be seen in more detail. For Europe and the United States, analysis in considerable depth becomes possible from the early part of the nineteenth century onwards; for many other areas, there is much less scope for study until the middle of the twentieth. The present chapter takes the story up to that point and is thus mainly European in character. Current demographic situations and particulars on a world scale are exhibited in chapter 11.