INTRODUCTION

Laplace's rule of succession states, in brief, that the probability of an event recurring, given that it has already occurred n times in succession, is (n + 1)/ (n + 2). In his Essai philosophique sur les probabilités (1814), Laplace gave a famous, if notorious illustration of the rule: the probability of the sun's rising.

This passage was at the center of a spirited debate for over a century about the ability of the calculus of probabilities to provide a satisfactory account of inductive inference (e.g., Keynes 1921, Chapter 30). Although the later history of this debate is well known, what is less well known, perhaps, is its history prior to the appearance of Laplace's Essai. In fact, the question whether belief in the future rising of the sun can be expressed probabilistically had been briefly alluded to by Hume in his Treatise of 1739, and had been discussed prior to the appearance of Laplace's Essai by Price, Buffon, Condorcet, Waring, Prevost, and L'Huilier (e.g., Zabell, 1988, Section 5).