Territory

Conflict (dispute onset, rivalry)

1. The presence of a territorial claim (disagreements that have not yet resorted to the threat or use of force) between two states increases the probability of a militarized interstate dispute (MID) (Senese and Vasquez, 2003; see also Colaresi, Rasler, and Thompson, 2007: 253).

2. Dyads that are neighbors (i.e. contiguous) are more apt to have a MID than non-contiguous dyads (Senese, 2005).

3. Intangible territorial claims are more apt to have a MID than tangible territorial claims (Hensel and Mitchell, 2005).

4. Not all territorial issues are equally likely to escalate to the threat or use of force (as in a MID). Territorial issues (claims) involving ethnic questions are the most conflict-prone (Huth, 1996b; Hensel and Mitchell, 2005; Hensel et al., 2008), strategic territory the next, and territorial claims involving economic resources the least conflict-prone (Huth, 1996b; Huth and Allee, 2002: ch. 9). 4a. Salient territorial issues (i.e. those involving homeland territory, ethnicity, or a long history of sovereign rule) are more apt to have a MID (Hensel et al., 2008).

5. Territorial disputes are more apt to be reciprocated (Hensel and Diehl, 1994; Hensel, 1996a) and tend to recur (Hensel, 1994, 1996a, 1998) (see also finding 14 below).

6. A sense of rivalry and contesting territory produce militarized disputes (Rasler and Thompson, 2006; Colaresi, Rasler, and Thompson, 2007: ch. 9).

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