Most politicians are understandably reluctant to make predictions. A week, as we are constantly reminded, is a long time in politics. Politics, like the successful outcome of a trade negotiation, is a bet in which there are dozens of variables. So a politician who is also a trade negotiator should be doubly cautious. I am writing this at a time when the Doha Round of negotiations is approaching what is widely recognized as a moment of truth. It is not just another of the multiple moments of truth that all trade rounds pass through on their way to a hard-fought consensus – old hands in Geneva will always remind you that the Uruguay round was older than Doha is now, when it was successfully concluded. Rather Doha is approaching a potentially terminal impasse defined by the combination of the US political calendar and the fact that the round has reached a point where the parameters for a final agreement are relatively clear and the gaps to close are political as much as technical. By the time you read this, that moment will have come or gone. I cannot predict what will happen, but I can set out what I believe should happen. Thus, what follows is either a posteriori defense of the path WTO negotiators have chosen, or it is a measure of lost opportunity, of the deal we may have let slip through our fingers. As both of those things, it is a guide to some of the political problems that are likely to confront WTO trade rounds and the multilateral trading system in the future.