Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Contributors
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Part I Introduction
- Part II Advances in source–sink theory
- 2 Evolution in source–sink environments: implications for niche conservatism
- 3 Source–sink dynamics emerging from unstable ideal free habitat selection
- 4 Sources and sinks in the evolution and persistence of mutualisms
- 5 Effects of climate change on dynamics and stability of multiregional populations
- 6 Habitat quality, niche breadth, temporal stochasticity, and the persistence of populations in heterogeneous landscapes
- 7 When sinks rescue sources in dynamic environments
- 8 Sinks, sustainability, and conservation incentives
- Part III Progress in source–sink methodology
- Part IV Improvement of source–sink management
- Part V Synthesis
- Index
- References
5 - Effects of climate change on dynamics and stability of multiregional populations
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 July 2011
Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Contributors
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Part I Introduction
- Part II Advances in source–sink theory
- 2 Evolution in source–sink environments: implications for niche conservatism
- 3 Source–sink dynamics emerging from unstable ideal free habitat selection
- 4 Sources and sinks in the evolution and persistence of mutualisms
- 5 Effects of climate change on dynamics and stability of multiregional populations
- 6 Habitat quality, niche breadth, temporal stochasticity, and the persistence of populations in heterogeneous landscapes
- 7 When sinks rescue sources in dynamic environments
- 8 Sinks, sustainability, and conservation incentives
- Part III Progress in source–sink methodology
- Part IV Improvement of source–sink management
- Part V Synthesis
- Index
- References
Summary
Climate change is one of the greatest long-term potential threats to the functional integrity of the biosphere. Although the likely effects of climate change on ecosystem function and the geographic distributions of organisms have been extensively studied, their demographic effects are less well understood. In order to examine the effects of climate change on populations in their landscape context, I integrate results from two different modeling approaches to examine the effects of climate change on the demography and dispersal of organisms. I use simple two-patch metapopulation models and more complex stochastic stage-structured multiregional models of stream fish populations. Plausible effects of climate change on dispersal rates, and on spatial population structure, may destabilize metapopulations and make them susceptible to further anthropogenic or natural perturbations. The findings suggest several hypotheses to be tested empirically, and imply that future biodiversity conservation strategies will need to account for the landscape-level effects of climate change and attendant changes in land use.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Sources, Sinks and Sustainability , pp. 99 - 114Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2011
References
(1998). Interactions between local dynamics and dispersal: insights from single species models. Theoretical Population Biology 53: 44–59.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
(2007). Global climate change and biodiversity conservation: the role of ecological risk assessment. Forum on Public Policy 3: 267–276.Google Scholar
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and (2002). Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Global Change Biology 8: 1–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (2007). Where will species go? Incorporating new advances in climate modelling into projections of species distributions. Global Change Biology 13: 1368–1385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , , and (2006). Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants’ vulnerability to global change?Global Change Biology 12: 1079–1093.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(2001). Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis, and Interpretation, 2nd edition. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA.Google Scholar
, , , , and (2006). Multiple anthropogenic stressors cause ecological surprises in boreal lakes. Global Change Biology 12: 2316–2322.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(2007). Global biodiversity scenarios and landscape ecology. Landscape Ecology 22: 671–685.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , , , , , and (2007). Combined effects of climate warming and plant diversity loss on above- and below-ground grassland productivity. Environmental and Experimental Botany 60: 95–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, and (2003). Patterns of dispersal and dynamics among habitat patches varying in quality. American Naturalist 162: 302–317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2001). Modeling the ecological trap hypothesis: a habitat and demographic analysis for migrant songbirds. Ecological Applications 11: 871–882.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2005). Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters 8: 993–1009.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, and (2002). Climate change-integrated conservation strategies. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11: 485–495.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1991). Structured models of metapopulation dynamics. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 42: 57–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1993). Complex interactions between dispersal and dynamics: lessons from coupled logistic equations. Ecology 74: 1362–1372.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2006). The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Global Change Biology 12: 2272–2281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (1997). The Ecological Detective: Confronting Models with Data. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.Google Scholar
(2003). The roles of carrying capacity, immigration, and population synchrony on persistence of stream-resident cutthroat trout. Biological Conservation 110: 257–266.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (2007). Evaluating population persistence of Delmarva fox squirrels and potential impacts of climate change. Biological Conservation 137: 70–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , , , and (2005). A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK. Part II. Results. Climatic Change 71: 43–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(2007a). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.Google Scholar
(2007b). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.Google Scholar
(2006). Endocrine-disrupting chemicals and climate change: a worst-case combination for Arctic marine mammals and seabirds?Environmental Health Perspectives 114: 76–80.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, and (2007). Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biology 5: 1211–1219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (1998). Spatial structure, environmental heterogeneity, and population dynamics: analysis of the coupled logistic map. Theoretical Population Biology 54: 11–37.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
(2003). Ecological impacts of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on terrestrial ecosystems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A – Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 361: 2023–2041.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
and (2008). Rapid range expansion and community reorganization in response to warming. Global Change Biology 14: 2950–2962.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1996). Demographic models for subdivided populations: the renewal equation approach. Theoretical Population Biology 49: 291–313.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
(1995). The coupled logistic map: a simple model for the effects of spatial heterogeneity on population dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology 173: 217–230.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , , , , , , , , and (2008). Climate change causes rapid changes in the distribution and site abundance of birds in winter. Global Change Biology 14: 2489–2500.Google Scholar
, , , , and (2008). A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change. Ecological Modelling 219: 77–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, and (2005). A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 7: 253–267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , and (2006). The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 114: 69–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , and (2002). Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic change in a biodiversity hotspot. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11: 445–451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (2006). Migration rate limitations on climate change-induced range shifts in Cape Proteaceae. Diversity and Distributions 12: 555–562.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (2008). Bird migration times, climate change, and changing population sizes. Global Change Biology 14: 1959–1972.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(2007). Conservation of Wildlife Populations: Demography, Genetics, and Management. Blackwell Publishing, Malden, MA.Google Scholar
, , and (2003). Effects of elevated CO2, nitrogen deposition, and decreased species diversity on foliar fungal plant disease. Global Change Biology 9: 438–451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , , , and (2008). Living in an increasingly connected world: a framework for continental-scale environmental science. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 6: 229–237.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (1999). Modeling the effects of land use and climate change on riverine smallmouth bass. Ecological Applications 9: 1391–1404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1988). Sources, sinks, and population regulation. American Naturalist 132: 652–661.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, Jr. and (1992). Population dynamics in complex landscapes: a case study. Ecological Applications 2: 165–177.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, and (2006). Future environmental change impacts on rural land use and biodiversity: a synthesis of the ACCELERATES project. Environmental Science and Policy 9: 93–100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(2007). Legacies of land use and recent climatic change: the small mammal fauna of the mountains of Utah. American Naturalist 170: 242–257.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, and (2000). A frame-based spatially explicit model of subarctic vegetation response to climatic change: comparison with a point model. Landscape Ecology 15: 383–400.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and (2005). Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 310: 1333–1337.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (2006). Modeling the impact of climate and vegetation on fire regimes in mountain landscapes. Landscape Ecology 21: 539–554.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(2008). Differentiating migration and dispersal processes for pond-breeding amphibians. Wildlife Management 72: 260–267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , , , , and (2007). Stochastic dynamics in exotic and native blowflies: an analysis combining laboratory experiments and a two-patch metapopulation model. Ecological Research 22: 686–695.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, and (2006). Wildlife Ecology, Conservation, and Management, 2nd edition. Blackwell Publishing, Malden, MA.Google Scholar
and (1998). Chaos, dispersal and extinction in coupled ecosystems. Journal of Theoretical Biology 193: 539–541.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, , , , , , and (2008). Brook trout declines with land cover and temperature changes in Maryland. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 28: 1223–1232.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(2003). BIOMOD: optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Global Change Biology 9: 1353–1362.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (2006). Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe. Diversity and Distributions 12: 49–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (2008). Spatial scale affects bioclimate model projections of climate change impacts on mountain plants. Global Change Biology 14: 1089–1103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , , , and (2004). Impacts of multiple stressors on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: the role of species co-tolerance. Oikos 104: 451–457.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, and (2007). Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 104: 5738–5742.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, , , and (2006). Multi-scale factors and long-term responses of Chihuahuan Desert grasses to drought. Landscape Ecology 21: 1217–1231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2004). Realistic species losses disproportionately reduce grassland resistance to biological invaders. Science 306: 1175–1177.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, , , and (2003). Additive effects of simulated climate changes, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition on grassland diversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 100: 7650–7654.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed