Dangers of forecasting new directions

It is often a dangerous practice to make predictions about changes in established procedures and methods. Existing procedures and methods are habitually deeply entrenched, and change often takes place far more slowly than seems appropriate. On the other hand, issues that frequently seem pressing and in need of radical change turn out in hindsight to be much less serious than assessed at the time, while existing procedures and methods may be more resilient than anticipated. In other situations, it may be found to be easier and less expensive to continue to use the current methods and procedures, albeit with adaptations and minor changes so as to accommodate the emerging issues.

Notwithstanding these cautions, this chapter provides some assessments of areas of surveying human populations that seem to be presenting increasing problems, and then offers some suggestions as to ways in which survey methods and procedures may develop into the future. However, the reader is warned to be cautious in interpreting these possible future directions. One of the purposes of this chapter is to provide the reader with an appreciation for some of the current difficulties, and also to offer some thoughts that may lead to future improvements in survey methods.