Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-7bb8b95d7b-cx56b Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-09-06T19:18:12.942Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

5 - Uncertainty

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 January 2012

Wynn C. Stirling
Affiliation:
Brigham Young University, Utah
Get access

Summary

Probability theory was to native good sense what a telescope or spectacles were to the naked eye: a mechanical extension designed along the same basic principles as the original.

– Gerd Gigerenzer et al. The Empire of Chance (Cambridge University Press, 1989)

The question of how to make choices in the presence of uncertainty that arises because of the lack of complete information has captured the interest of decision theorists for centuries. The approach to dealing with such situations depends on how the decision maker characterizes the uncertainty. With a situation of complete ignorance, it is difficult to proceed. Consequently, much effort has been devoted to devising rules to govern the way inferences are made. As put by Gigerenzer et al. (1989), “Although these rules cannot eliminate the uncertainty intrinsic to the situation, they do eliminate the uncertainty of opinion about how to weigh what information one has, and therefore, about what course of action to pursue” (p. 286). The approach that has most widely influenced science and economics is to comply with the certainty-equivalence hypothesis: Given a decision problem whose outcome is uncertain, it is assumed that a payoff value exists such that the decision maker is indifferent between receiving that payoff for certain and the uncertain outcome. A decision maker who complies with the certainty-equivalence hypothesis will then act as if the certainty-equivalent payoff were deterministically defined.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

  • Uncertainty
  • Wynn C. Stirling, Brigham Young University, Utah
  • Book: Theory of Conditional Games
  • Online publication: 05 January 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511996450.006
Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • Uncertainty
  • Wynn C. Stirling, Brigham Young University, Utah
  • Book: Theory of Conditional Games
  • Online publication: 05 January 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511996450.006
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Uncertainty
  • Wynn C. Stirling, Brigham Young University, Utah
  • Book: Theory of Conditional Games
  • Online publication: 05 January 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511996450.006
Available formats
×