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8 - Multivariate models

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 July 2014

Andrew C. Harvey
Affiliation:
London School of Economics and Political Science
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Summary

In discussing univariate models, it was argued that the nature of the problem allows fairly strong restrictions to be imposed. These restrictions are not normally enforced within the traditional ARIMA framework. In a multivariate set-up, the number of parameters to be estimated increases rapidly as more series are included and in a vector ARMA model the issues concerned with identifiability become quite complicated; see Hannan (1969). Hence it is even more important to formulate models which take account of the nature of the problem. Apart from saving on the number of parameters to be estimated, such models are also likely to provide more useful information on the dynamic properties of the series.

In section 1.3 a distinction was drawn between multivariate models for cross-sections of time series and multivariate models for interactive systems. This distinction is important in considering the kind of multivariate structural time series models to be entertained. For cross-sections of time series, the class of univariate structural time series models generalises in a rather natural way, as discussed in sections 8.2 to 8.4. However, the fact that several series are now being modelled together suggests the possibility of common factors. Models of this kind are introduced in section 8.5. Section 8.6 examines the way in which control groups can be handled within the statistical framework of multivariate structural time series models, while section 8.7 looks at the handling of various data irregularities.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1990

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  • Multivariate models
  • Andrew C. Harvey, London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Book: Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter
  • Online publication: 05 July 2014
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107049994.009
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  • Multivariate models
  • Andrew C. Harvey, London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Book: Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter
  • Online publication: 05 July 2014
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107049994.009
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Multivariate models
  • Andrew C. Harvey, London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Book: Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter
  • Online publication: 05 July 2014
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107049994.009
Available formats
×