In contrast to the defense spending trends examined in the preceding chapter, developments in military doctrine do not capture the same level of general public attention. However, military doctrine is an important point of comparison for understanding international strategic behavior for three reasons. First, doctrine represents a vision of how a nation’s military intends to fight. This is important in itself, as some military doctrines have implications for key security issues such as crisis stability. For example, a strong belief among military and political leaders in the efficacy of offensive action compared to defense could exacerbate crisis instability by providing incentives for preemptive attack.

Second, military doctrine alone is not a good predictor of a given state’s strategic intentions, but it offers a guide to the state’s judgment about its security environment and the operational challenges the state expects to face. Hence, doctrine lends some insight into the kind of wars a military believes it will have to fight. States closely observe each other’s military doctrines, so doctrinal changes in other countries can also affect a state’s perceptions of the security environment. Third, in addition to spelling out the operational aspects of how a military intends to fight, doctrine also provides a foundation for many other important defense-related decisions, such as military organization, weapons procurement, and military training. These in turn affect overall military modernization goals.